Deflation or inflation? Vote now

pickles110564

deflation

bluey890 wrote: »

sooner or later btl is going to be seen as easy pickings for tax

You are probably right.

Fight_Club

inflation

It's all very complicated and as long as you have your back covered either way it's practically not even worth discussing.

There are so many variables that we could end up with anything. I would say to answer whether the UK has inflation or deflation you would have to have near certainty on all of the following:

1. The marginal propensity to save of the population.
2. The determination and independence of the bank of England to fight inflation.
3. The electibility of the Labour party.
4. The currency traders opinions.
5. The banks true losses.
6. Any new legislation intoduced by the FSA.
7. What happens in every other country in the world. Will China become unstable? Will Europe recover before we will?
8. Migration patterns.


The list is endless.

pickles110564

deflation

Fight_Club wrote: »

It's all very complicated and as long as you have your back covered either way it's practically not even worth discussing.

There are so many variables that we could end up with anything. I would say to answer whether the UK has inflation or deflation you would have to have near certainty on all of the following:

1. The marginal propensity to save of the population.
2. The determination and independence of the bank of England to fight inflation.
3. The electibility of the Labour party.
4. The currency traders opinions.
5. The banks true losses.
6. Any new legislation intoduced by the FSA.
7. What happens in every other country in the world. Will China become unstable? Will Europe recover before we will?
8. Migration patterns.


The list is endless.

I pleased with myself, just about understand 2 out of 8.

dopester

deflation

Dithering_Dad wrote: »

Dopester, you're starting to become a little fanatical about deflation. This is the second time I've seen you get rather 'hot' and sarcastic when someone mentions inflation.

With good reason.

It is like the tide being sucked out, and everyone saying... yes.. great time to go and play on the beach... lets go buy a beach-towel, a bucket and spade, and sun it up, when I'm warning trying to warn of a massive approaching tsunami on the way.

Deflation.

julieq

Well since we can't actually do anything about it dopester, we may as well splash around a bit and enjoy ourselves?

I have worse news. Every single one of us is going to lose every single penny we have, and all we own will be lost. And we will be incinerated or buried. Absolute fact, not reported much in the media which I guess is why no-one has brought it up here.

In the meantime, things are never as bad as the Daily Mail thinks they're going to be. So which way to the beach please?

FWIW, we've seen a lot of deflation invisibly via the currency devaluation. I think the apocalypse by deflation arguments are overdone personally.

*MF*

inflation

FWIW - Extracts from the latest BofE Inflation Report:

Every three months, the Bank asks a sample of external forecasters for their latest economic projections.

On average, external forecasters expected annual CPI inflation to have fallen below the inflation target by 2010 Q2, to have remained below 2% in 2011 Q2, and to have picked up in 2012 Q2.

There was, however, an unusually wide range of views about the short-term inflation outlook.

For example, a historically high proportion (around 15%) of respondents to the February 2009 Bank/NOP survey expected inflation to be negative in a year’s time.

But a similar proportion continued to expect inflation to exceed 5% over the same period.

From here:

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/inflationreport/ir09may.pdf?bcsi_scan_447638299E31E942=0&bcsi_scan_filename=ir09may.pdf

*****************

The report is 58 pages long - so if you can't be bothered reading it all - an unbiased precis would be "Neither the Bank nor the outside forecasters know !!!!!! is going to happen". :A

StevieJ

*MF* wrote: »

The report is 58 pages long - so if you can't be bothered reading it all - an unbiased precis would be "Neither the Bank nor the outside forecasters know !!!!!! is going to happen". :A

And me as well , strange seeing as the two outcomes are so diverse Having said that maybe the ball will go 'Straight down the middle' :T

Thrugelmir

inflation

Really2 wrote: »

Once deflationary presure eases we should be coming out of recession. Stronger £ = cheaper imports etc.

With the UK budget deficit to be funded. We are unlikely to see a stronger £. Quite possibly the reverse.

StevieJ

Thrugelmir wrote: »

With the UK budget deficit to be funded. We are unlikely to see a stronger £. Quite possibly the reverse.

We already have a stronger £ than not so long ago

Thrugelmir

inflation

tomterm8 wrote: »

The other conclusion I'm reaching is that it is quite possible the UK economy will post positive growth in q4 this year.

As the UK is heavily dependant on imported product as has been mentioned earlier. Growth in the economy will result in higher prices and therefore inflation.