Mortgage Approvals Up Again - 3 Months in a row

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Topov wrote: »

As soon as the economy turns and sellers start feeling better [strike]your negotiation advantage will be lost.[/strike] interest rates will go up to curb inflation as it's only housing costs that are stopping RPI going up now, after that bit of misery, Brown's gargantuan tax bill will start landing on the door mat. If you manage to keep your job and you have any money left after tax, you should be in agood position to negotiate.:D

Just thought I'd fix it for you, I'm sure that's what you meant to say isn't it ?;)

Generali

Conrad wrote: »

I'm not sure he has assets prices rising quickly in mind, just a bottoming out in the comming months.

Perhaps. The line:

Get your houses quick while property prices are still depressed and mortgage rates are still low. As soon as the economy turns and sellers start feeling better your negotiation advantage will be lost.

seems to suggest a quick upturn in prices. Perhaps I've misinterpreted.

chewmylegoff

Topov wrote: »

First we hear that the US has reached the bottom and now we start seeing signs that the UK is set to follow suit (we're always a few months behind the US in everything).

Just because people are desperate for houses to drop to 50p doesn't mean your wishes will come true. Just because people like generali play the populist vote and talk down the market wont stop the market from turning.

Get your houses quick while property prices are still depressed and mortgage rates are still low. As soon as the economy turns and sellers start feeling better your negotiation advantage will be lost.

the idea that our market will firm up when the US market has bottomed out would be more believeable if the US market hadn't been falling for over a year when our market peaked.

chucky

Generali wrote: »

Do you think a series of massive asset price bubbles followed by the near collapse of the world's banking system is going to blow over in a few months? What process do you think will allow asset prices to rise quickly in the near future?

i think he means bottoming out not recovery

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Topov wrote: »

First we hear that the US has reached the bottom and now we start seeing signs that the UK is set to follow suit (we're always a few months behind the US in everything).

A few months ?, a bit optimistic I think, the US is typically 18 months in front of us, as for US prices bottoming, well they couldn't get much lower when you can pick up houses from anything from 50p upwards.:D

Cannon_Fodder

For those who missed it;

"Gross mortgage lending declined to an estimated £9.9 billion in February, down 15% from £11.7 billion in January and 60% from February 2008"

http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/2195
http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/filegrab/1Februarygrosslendingtable.xls?ref=6312

Month
2008Feb 25,043
Mar 24,166
Apr 26,089
May 24,446
Jun 23,598
Jul 24,672
Aug 19,641
Sep 17,486
Oct 18,827
Nov 14,170
Dec 13,538
2009Jan 11,672
Feb est 9,900

est=estimatedSource: CML Research, Bank of England1. Total gross lending gives the total value of loans secured on dwellings that are newly advanced by institutions in the period. All the figures were sourced from the Bank of England except the estimate for the most current month.2. The CML estimates of gross lending for the latest month were based on the lending figures provided by a sample of lenders that represent around 80% of the mortgage market. The aggregate of these figures were scaled up to represent the whole market.



"this is a larger decline than the 3-4% usually experienced between January and February"

Graham_Devon

Topov wrote: »

First we hear that the US has reached the bottom and now we start seeing signs that the UK is set to follow suit (we're always a few months behind the US in everything).

Just because people are desperate for houses to drop to 50p doesn't mean your wishes will come true. Just because people like generali play the populist vote and talk down the market wont stop the market from turning.

Get your houses quick while property prices are still depressed and mortgage rates are still low. As soon as the economy turns and sellers start feeling better your negotiation advantage will be lost.

I love how these comedians freely give their time to us

chucky

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

For those who missed it;

"Gross mortgage lending declined to an estimated £9.9 billion in February, down 15% from £11.7 billion in January and 60% from February 2008"

http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/2195
http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/filegrab/1Februarygrosslendingtable.xls?ref=6312

Month
2008Feb 25,043
Mar 24,166
Apr 26,089
May 24,446
Jun 23,598
Jul 24,672
Aug 19,641
Sep 17,486
Oct 18,827
Nov 14,170
Dec 13,538
2009Jan 11,672
Feb est 9,900

est=estimatedSource: CML Research, Bank of England1. Total gross lending gives the total value of loans secured on dwellings that are newly advanced by institutions in the period. All the figures were sourced from the Bank of England except the estimate for the most current month.2. The CML estimates of gross lending for the latest month were based on the lending figures provided by a sample of lenders that represent around 80% of the mortgage market. The aggregate of these figures were scaled up to represent the whole market.



"this is a larger decline than the 3-4% usually experienced between January and February"

from the article on the BBC website
"The British Bankers' Association (BBA) said that there were 28,179 mortgages approved for house purchases in February, up from 24,278 in January."

Gross numbers include remortgages (which are relevant) but at the moment people are paying off their debt quicker and not Mewing - a reduction in gross mortgage numbers will impact this.

I can't see people people on SVR's or trackers remortgaging at the moment - maybe when rates start to move upwards.

to balance my point "But the figure was still 31% lower than a year earlier."
At least mortgage approvals aren't dropping each month.

why can't people embrace a bit of positive news instead of trying to cloud the issue?

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Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

For those who missed it;

"Gross mortgage lending declined to an estimated £9.9 billion in February, down 15% from £11.7 billion in January and 60% from February 2008"

http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/2195
http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/filegrab/1Februarygrosslendingtable.xls?ref=6312

Month
2008Feb 25,043
Mar 24,166
Apr 26,089
May 24,446
Jun 23,598
Jul 24,672
Aug 19,641
Sep 17,486
Oct 18,827
Nov 14,170
Dec 13,538
2009Jan 11,672
Feb est 9,900

est=estimatedSource: CML Research, Bank of England1. Total gross lending gives the total value of loans secured on dwellings that are newly advanced by institutions in the period. All the figures were sourced from the Bank of England except the estimate for the most current month.2. The CML estimates of gross lending for the latest month were based on the lending figures provided by a sample of lenders that represent around 80% of the mortgage market. The aggregate of these figures were scaled up to represent the whole market.



"this is a larger decline than the 3-4% usually experienced between January and February"

Also CF, Feb 2008 was starting to 'stink' a bit as well. All these figures based on a 'rolling year', should be looked at in comparison with peak, which I believe was Nov 2006 at 129,000, as far as approvals go.

Which means, in my calculation, mortgage approvals are approx, 18.75% of their peak value. Which considering they have been rising for 3 months is a bit crap to say the least. I will stick with Generali's comment about the train.

StevieJ

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I love how these comedians freely give their time to us

I prefer the old stand up comedians like you and Bernard Manning