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Britain: Only major economy in recession in 2010?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/britain-will-be-only-nation-still-in-recession-next-year-1647356.html
Britain will be only nation still in recession next year

IMF says every other major economy will be growing again by 2010.

The British economy is heading for its worst year since the Great Depression, according to the latest predictions from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The fund shocked analysts during a briefing in which it was revealed that the UK will see its economy shrink by 3.8 per cent in 2009, and a further 0.2 per cent in 2010 – the only large economy predicted to still be in decline next year as well as this.

Looks like we're in for a rough ride.
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Comments

  • stevetodd
    stevetodd Posts: 1,016 Forumite
    Wookster wrote: »

    I would settle for that though because it only falls marginally in 2010 and only grows marginally in the other countries, things could be a lot worse don't you think?
  • bendix
    bendix Posts: 5,499 Forumite
    Newspapers love to come out with grandiose statements like this will be the worst year since the Great Depression, but when you analyse it, what does it EXACTLY mean? Not much frankly. They love to evoke images of soup kitchens, millions of cloth-capped workers queuing up for a few shillings a day work, and lead us to think it is going to be like that again.

    It isn't. Our lives today are - to all extents and purposes - fundamentally cushioned from economic downturns. Some will lose their jobs, but to be brutally frank, with our benefits culture today, that's not going to make people hungry. Some businesses will go bust - that's economic Darwinism and a perfectly natural thing. If they were good businesses, they would survive. House prices will fall etc etc.

    But on a day to day basis, people will still eat. Watch tv. Buy a morning paper. Maybe share a bottle of wine with their spouse once a week.

    We're hardly roughing it, for a depression, are we?
  • stevetodd
    stevetodd Posts: 1,016 Forumite
    bendix wrote: »
    But on a day to day basis, people will still eat. Watch tv. Buy a morning paper. Maybe share a bottle of wine with their spouse once a week.

    quote]

    OMG I missed that bit! only one bottle of wine a week, are you sure? isn't there something we can do to avoid this, if only I had seen this coming! I hope it's not the damn FSA again with more regulations!
  • lostinrates
    lostinrates Posts: 55,283 Forumite
    I've been Money Tipped!
    bendix wrote: »
    Newspapers love to come out with grandiose statements like this will be the worst year since the Great Depression, but when you analyse it, what does it EXACTLY mean? Not much frankly. They love to evoke images of soup kitchens, millions of cloth-capped workers queuing up for a few shillings a day work, and lead us to think it is going to be like that again.

    It isn't. Our lives today are - to all extents and purposes - fundamentally cushioned from economic downturns. Some will lose their jobs, but to be brutally frank, with our benefits culture today, that's not going to make people hungry. Some businesses will go bust - that's economic Darwinism and a perfectly natural thing. If they were good businesses, they would survive. House prices will fall etc etc.

    But on a day to day basis, people will still eat. Watch tv. Buy a morning paper. Maybe share a bottle of wine with their spouse once a week.

    We're hardly roughing it, for a depression, are we?


    I think you are right. but in itself this raises a bit of an odd situation doesn't it? The IMF are asking for greater restriction on lending, while in the mean time government will be enforced to maintain, or increase, levels of debt to provide the benefits that people are going to need as they find themselves no income with debts to service?
  • chucky
    chucky Posts: 15,170 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    bendix wrote: »
    Newspapers love to come out with grandiose statements like this will be the worst year since the Great Depression, but when you analyse it, what does it EXACTLY mean? Not much frankly.

    it's not just the newspapers but you've just described many of the posters on this forum.
    stevetodd wrote: »
    I would settle for that though because it only falls marginally in 2010 and only grows marginally in the other countries, things could be a lot worse don't you think?

    it always going to fall into the first quarter of 2010 I though anyway, I'll settle for 2010 too - where's the big news story??
  • StevieJ
    StevieJ Posts: 20,174 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    So UK GDP = Est made Jan -2.8 to Est made Mar -3.8, Germany Est made Jan -2.0 Est made March -3.2.

    Looks like the trend is our friend :D Gemany forecast 60% worse than Jan, UK forecast 36% worse than Jan. Maybe Germany will be in recession on 2010 next time they do the forecast :rolleyes:

    Not to mention Japan 250% worse:eek:
    'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher
  • purch
    purch Posts: 9,865 Forumite
    I refer honourable members to my previous answer.
    'In nature, there are neither rewards nor punishments - there are Consequences.'
  • bendix wrote: »
    Newspapers love to come out with grandiose statements like this will be the worst year since the Great Depression, but when you analyse it, what does it EXACTLY mean? Not much frankly. They love to evoke images of soup kitchens, millions of cloth-capped workers queuing up for a few shillings a day work, and lead us to think it is going to be like that again.

    It isn't. Our lives today are - to all extents and purposes - fundamentally cushioned from economic downturns. Some will lose their jobs, but to be brutally frank, with our benefits culture today, that's not going to make people hungry. Some businesses will go bust - that's economic Darwinism and a perfectly natural thing. If they were good businesses, they would survive. House prices will fall etc etc.

    But on a day to day basis, people will still eat. Watch tv. Buy a morning paper. Maybe share a bottle of wine with their spouse once a week.

    We're hardly roughing it, for a depression, are we?

    I agree, though I suppose the real problems would start when the benefits system ran out of money. Mind you, I don't even think a return to the living standards of the 1930s would be that bad for most people and might be a useful kick up the backside for some.
    'Never keep up with Joneses. Drag them down to your level. It's cheaper.' Quentin Crisp
  • stevetodd
    stevetodd Posts: 1,016 Forumite
    chucky wrote: »
    it's not just the newspapers but you've just described many of the posters on this forum.



    it always going to fall into the first quarter of 2010 I though anyway, I'll settle for 2010 too - where's the big news story??

    I think the big news story is Wookster's metamorphisis from a bear to a bull, posting this good news
  • chucky
    chucky Posts: 15,170 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    stevetodd wrote: »
    I think the big news story is Wookster's metamorphisis from a bear to a bull, posting this good news

    very true - maybe he's got himself a job now
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