Mortgage lending hits a new record low.

Cannon_Fodder

chucky wrote: »

2007 and 2008 didn't have any QE

True. Not quite sure if there will be a direct relationship when QE gets moving.

Of course January did have various stimuli, lower interest rates etc, compared to 2007 and 2008, but not only did it not hold level at a low base, but fell by 28%...

chucky

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

True. Not quite sure if there will be a direct relationship when QE gets moving.

Of course January did have various stimuli, lower interest rates etc, compared to 2007 and 2008, but not only did it not hold level at a low base, but fell by 28%...

can we then derive that if the removal of credit from the market has dropped these mortgage approvals? no sarcasm on this one

personally i think the answer is yes.

so if QE goes the way the Govt wants and allows credit again in the house market, the bubble will just start again. would you agree on that?

ad44downey

skap7309 wrote: »

Just 23,400 approved in January. The bull trap lives up to its name!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7939167.stm

Thank heavens for that. Deluded prospective buyers need protecting from themselves.

Cannon_Fodder

I doubt it will be as simple as one thing being the answer. You rarely let it be, when the shoe is on the other foot...:p

i.e. There are going to be people choosing not to bother applying, waiting/hoping/scared that prices will fall further.
Job losses will have dented an element from going ahead with their plans.
Etc.


Is QE designed by the Govt for Housing purposes? I would guess their priority would be businesses being saved from failing.

While that will secure jobs, it will be a slower process to filter through into positive sentiment.

Having said which, the absence of credit is one of the major factors, and increased credit could free up a portion of the clogged system.

Dripping £2Bn a week over 3 months doesn't sound overly ambitious or quick, though, so if takes 3 months just to get into the system at all, then a few weeks (months?) to get back out to companies/borrowers, then it could be Autumn - during which time 6 more months of negative house prices could dent sentiment further...

In the longer term, it makes you wonder if a fresh, quick-ish bubble is a danger, I grant you.

chucky

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

I doubt it will be as simple as one thing being the answer. You rarely let it be, when the shoe is on the other foot...:p

i don't think i'm that bad
month on month is nothing - year on year is important and that isn't looking pretty.

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

Is QE designed by the Govt for Housing purposes? I would guess their priority would be businesses being saved from failing.

While that will secure jobs, it will be a slower process to filter through into positive sentiment.

Having said which, the absence of credit is one of the major factors, and increased credit could free up a portion of the clogged system.

no it's not specifically for that but it will/should support the businesses.
end product is businesses run smoother - employment prospects are better and general feeling about the economy is better.

don't forget that redundancies are the end product of the recession and continue as we come out of a recession. are we approaching the end product stage?
not a statement but maybe a different point to think about.

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

Dripping £2m a week over 3 months doesn't sound overly ambitious or quick, though, so if takes 3 months just to get into the system at all, then a few weeks (months?) to get back out to companies/borrowers, then it could be Autumn - during which time 6 more months of negative house prices could dent sentiment further...

an assumption on your part which we don't know about.
my big assumption which you haven't questioned me on is if QE will actually filter down to it's intended targets at all and the banks won't lend.

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

In the longer term, it makes you wonder if a fresh, quick-ish bubble is a danger, I grant you.

But it gives Mr Brown a chance in a General Election

Cannon_Fodder

chucky wrote: »

my big assumption which you haven't questioned me on is if QE will actually filter down to it's intended targets at all and the banks won't lend.

Well, you did say IF...I assumed you had already thought of that !

Conrad

A real change out here at coal face.
All the big lenders had a fasttrack system which enabled the majority of cases to said through without any documentation. FT has been pretty much withdrawn now, and will have a significant effect.

I was busy in Feb but now its quiet again. Seeing 3 bed houses in Harlow for £95000, which is astonishing really.

mdb99jh

chucky wrote: »

pretty sad state when people are not able to buy a home due to the bank not lending them money.

i guess they'll have to keep on renting and pay the landlords mortgage down.

Just as sad as when people are not able to buy a home due to them all being too expensive. Hopefully, in the not too distant future, prices will be more sensibly priced, credit will ease up a little, and it will be a good day for (almost) everyone.

Radiantsoul

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

Dripping £2m a week over 3 months doesn't sound overly ambitious or quick, though, so if takes 3 months just to get into the system at all, then a few weeks (months?) to get back out to companies/borrowers, then it could be Autumn - during which time 6 more months of negative house prices could dent sentiment further...

It is billions not millions.

dopester

Conrad wrote: »

I was busy in Feb but now its quiet again. Seeing 3 bed houses in Harlow for £95000, which is astonishing really.

What is so astonishing about it Conrad? Only seems a while back you were on the cusp of buying "cheap" from a developer, as the EA convinced you on selling immediately for a fat profit.

Cmon. Give us more of your uber-bear accusations. Cmon. Tell us what Warren Buffett would do and how now is the time to buy.

You're not that stupid Conrad.. you've got my respect for selling up on your properties before the very peak.