Daily Telegraph joins the 70% club

dopester

chucky wrote: »

My point is who are Numis Securities?
Have you ever seen any reports from them to now quote them saying they are a respected source?

Never heard of them before personally. That doesn't make Kirstie's, Ashworth and Millard's worshipping of property values any more sensible though.

Some views are going to be more accurate than others and will be proven in time enough soon to come.

http://www.numiscorp.com/x/MainResearch.html

StevieJ

I am still waiting for then to hit my optimistic prediction of -20%

whathavewedone

Exactly. Until then people will believe which ever views they prefer which in many cases depends on their own vested interests.

JP45

worldtraveller wrote: »

This latest analysis is by just one company and is at the high end, others have completely different views (as usual!). Yet, naturally, this one has been picked on by the media to shock! :rolleyes:

OK, a further 55% could happen, though I believe it very unlikely. Personally, for what it's worth, I still favour an average 30-40% fall from peak to trough, the trough being in 2010/11, which I felt was an accurate forecast in early 2008 and still do. At that time, most people thought that I was being overly pessimistic!

I agree. It's an extreme, alarmist prediction that I am sure will prove wide of the mark. But hey, it gets them mentioned in the media so what the heck.

I wonder what this particular group were forecasting for UK house prices two to three years ago? Probably forecasting a rise in line with most others.

The fact is that financial institutions have proven notoriously unreliable when it comes to predicting market movements, whether it be housing, shares, commodities or whatever. Very few gave advance warning of an impending house price crash.

As the previous poster said, I think the most likely outcome is a 30-40% fall from peak to trough.

whathavewedone

I wasn't just talking about the vested interests of Phil and Kirsty et al I was also talking about the vested interests of those who want to buy a house.

Someone without any vested interests at all would probably not be seeing any green shoots but would also probably not be predicting falls of 70% plus.

macaque_2

chucky wrote: »

probably because you haven't got a scooby
Since when is Numis Securities a respected source or even a leading investment bank??

Chucky, forget Numis Securities. They are just getting their stories from me.
If you want to know who to trust you have to look at the face.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2008/10/photogalleries/best-animal-wildlife-photos/photo6.html

ad9898_3

StevieJ wrote: »

I am still waiting for then to hit my optimistic prediction of -20%

Aren't the Nationwide figures now above that ?, Halifax will be there next month probably, and with the LR 3 months behind, I expect to see their figures above 20% come May.

StevieJ

Telegraph Runs with Improbable UK House Price Crash Forecast of Another 55%



http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/index.php?name=News&file=article&sid=9386

Still love this :rotfl:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article7183.html

StevieJ

ad9898 wrote: »

Aren't the Nationwide figures now above that ?, Halifax will be there next month probably, and with the LR 3 months behind, I expect to see their figures above 20% come May.

Maybe, but I will wait for the real (all market) figures from the FT

-12% up to Jan May be a little pessimistic because it doesn't include Scoltland

http://www.acadametrics.co.uk/ftHousePrices.php

StevieJ

macaque wrote: »

Chucky, forget Numis Securities. They are just getting their stories from me.
If you want to know who to trust you have to look at the face.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2008/10/photogalleries/best-animal-wildlife-photos/photo6.html

Whick type are you, I was trying to spot you at the Zoo last week but there are different species