Next Housing Boom here we come !!!!!!!

dgl1001

11 March 2009 – ONS has published National Statistics on the projected number of households in England and its regions to 2031 based on the 2006-based population projections. They replace the 2004-based household projections released in February 2008.

Key points from the latest release are:

* The number of households in England is projected to grow to 27.8 million in 2031, an increase of 6.3 million (29 per cent) over the 2006 estimate, or 252,000 households per year.
* Population growth is the main driver of household growth, accounting for nearly three-quarters of the increase in households between 2006 and 2031.
* One person households are projected to increase by 163,000 per year, equating to two-thirds of the increase in households.
* By 2031, 32 per cent of households will be headed by those aged 65 or over, up from 26 per cent in 2006.
* By 2031, 18 per cent of the total population of England is projected to live alone, compared with 13 per cent in 2006.
* The South East region has the largest absolute increase in households of 39,000 per year from 2006 to 2031, a 28 per cent rise from the 2006 level.
* The North East region shows the smallest growth in households, at 8,300 per year from 2006 to 2031, or a 19 per cent rise from the 2006 level.


Pre-release access list -
http://www.communities.gov.uk/documents/statistics/pdf/1172100.pdf

BenL

2031!! We will have boomed and bust again by then (at least once).

dgl1001

good point!!! but what it does show, is that we need to be building in the region of 250k new homes per year from 2006 to 2031. I think this year we will build about 100k, which is well below what we need to be doing. Add to that the undersupply we already have and its pointing to further pressure on the housing stock.

Generali

dgl1001 wrote: »

good point!!! but what it does show, is that we need to be building in the region of 250k new homes per year from 2006 to 2031. I think this year we will build about 100k, which is well below what we need to be doing. Add to that the undersupply we already have and its pointing to further pressure on the housing stock.

Sounds like a crock of poo to me. How can anyone imagine they can guess what immigration will be like in 22 years time?

How many people guessed net legal immigration would be about 250,000 into the UK in the early 80s? I don't remember reading any such predictions.

You might as well try to predict who'll win the FA Cup in 2031 or the Bermondsey South bye-election.

Chris2685

As a 'wise' man once said:
"Supply and demand init"

bo_drinker

It won't reach 100k this year nearer 70k, if that.

adr0ck

bo_drinker wrote: »

It won't reach 100k this year nearer 70k, if that.

spot on and that includes housing association homes

looking like approx 25k private homes

and even less next year looking at current planning figures

eg last quarter there were 40 homes submitted for planning approval in Wales = 160 homes in a year (down from about 4,500 homes) :eek:

dgl1001

adr0ck wrote: »

spot on and that includes housing association homes

looking like approx 25k private homes

and even less next year looking at current planning figures

eg last quarter there were 40 homes submitted for planning approval in Wales = 160 homes in a year (down from about 4,500 homes) :eek:

25k private homes !!!!! is that it

macaque_2

dgl1001 wrote: »

11 March 2009 – ONS has published National Statistics on the projected number of households in England and its regions to 2031 based on the 2006-based population projections. They replace the 2004-based household projections released in February 2008.

Key points from the latest release are:

* The number of households in England is projected to grow to 27.8 million in 2031, an increase of 6.3 million (29 per cent) over the 2006 estimate, or 252,000 households per year.
* Population growth is the main driver of household growth, accounting for nearly three-quarters of the increase in households between 2006 and 2031.
* One person households are projected to increase by 163,000 per year, equating to two-thirds of the increase in households.
* By 2031, 32 per cent of households will be headed by those aged 65 or over, up from 26 per cent in 2006.
* By 2031, 18 per cent of the total population of England is projected to live alone, compared with 13 per cent in 2006.
* The South East region has the largest absolute increase in households of 39,000 per year from 2006 to 2031, a 28 per cent rise from the 2006 level.
* The North East region shows the smallest growth in households, at 8,300 per year from 2006 to 2031, or a 19 per cent rise from the 2006 level.


Pre-release access list -
http://www.communities.gov.uk/documents/statistics/pdf/1172100.pdf

I have some questions about your conclusion:

(1) The native UK population is declining. Therefore the 6 million rise is based entirely on immigration predictions. Will further massive waves of immigration be tolerated in the UK? Will immigrants want to come to a post bubble Britain? I would say the jury is out on both counts.

(2) It is the combination of prosperity and high populations that create high house prices. Large populations without prosperity leads overcrowding and squalor. With the collapse the borrowing bubble, the huge decline in the city and the loss of industry; where is the prosperity to come from in the future?

dgl1001

macaque wrote: »

I have some questions about your conclusion:

(1) The native UK population is declining. Therefore the 6 million rise is based entirely on immigration predictions. No - you need to read what it says in the second bullet point Will further massive waves of immigration be tolerated in the UK? Will immigrants want to come to a post bubble Britain? I would say the jury is well and truly out on both counts.

(2) It is the combination of prosperity and high populations that create high house prices. Large populations without prosperity leads overcrowding and squalor. With the collapse the borrowing bubble, the huge decline in the city and the loss of industry; where is the prosperity to come from in the future?

Sorry - are you suggesting that the credit markets/ industry will never recover and that all wealth is going to disappear?

tommy75

I'm sure I read somewhere that there were over 1 million homes empty at the moment and that supply and demand theory to make houses prices rise was made up?