Moneyweek - UK house prices will plummet: look at this scary chart

tomterm8

Why would any competant conservative actually want to be a Conservative MP? Surely it is better to be a sucessfull businessperson than waste all your time doing unpaletable things for unpaletable people surrounded by unmentionable fools?

nickmason

ukcarper wrote: »

since when has new labour been left inclined ok may a degree or so

I used that phrase deliberately. Almost the central plank of new labour's strategy - especially the Mandelson/Blair bit - was to not be left inclined! The accusations again and again against them have been that they are too right wing (lazy terms) which is all well and good as noise, but doesn't position the opposition well. It's the famous triangulation strategy.

That is also why people are turning to emotions normally reserved for Thatcher when they look at this government. No more "well meaning, but wrong" lefties, but bad, greedy, self-centred - precisely the comments Stevie made against Tories.

nickmason

tomterm8 wrote: »

Why would any competant conservative actually want to be a Conservative MP? Surely it is better to be a sucessfull businessperson than waste all your time doing unpaletable things for unpaletable people surrounded by unmentionable fools?

Very good question. I'll let you know the answer when I get it. All I know is that successful banker wasn't enough. Public service is in my blood.

lostinrates

Nick...did you get the tea towel?

besonders1

pandamonia wrote: »

fact is that this country is worse off now than in the year 2000 and prices of houses should reflect that.

Exactly, In the year 2000 there was no recession and people had jobs and could get mortgages that was just 9 years ago. The graph will only scare greedy people.

Arcaine

purch wrote: »

Has my eyesight gone wonky....but how can anyone say the two charts are a mirror of each other ???

The 'Denial' 'Bull Trap' 'Fear' 'Capitulation' 'Despair' and 'Return to Mean' bits aren't on the Nominal House Prices chart............and as yet nobody can say for certain whether they will "exactly" mirror whats above, or even get close !!!!

I think the point is so far they do, whether they carry on is up for debate.We are starting to see signs that people may be thinking about houses again now prices are coming down. I think the real question is, are we going to see the bear trap or are prices going to stabilize after this. Personally I think it will go towards the trap, unless someone can convince me otherwise.

pandamonia

Arcaine wrote: »

I think the point is so far they do, whether they carry on is up for debate.We are starting to see signs that people may be thinking about houses again now prices are coming down. I think the real question is, are we going to see the bear trap or are prices going to stabilize after this. Personally I think it will go towards the trap, unless someone can convince me otherwise.

ive been thinking about buying a house since i was 20, 4 years on im no further on that i was 4 years ago.

tell a lie i called a few mortgage companys to see whats on offer.

people look at the Bentlys in the window every day. seldom few can afford them

same with houses.

macaque_2

chucky wrote: »

interesting article - got to this bit and stopped

"There are even some at the great refuge of the bears, website housepricecrash, who are now considering buying, though well below market value."

vested interest or what - I can just read the HPC forum if I want to read stuff like that.

Or read it until you heard a dripping sound from under your chair eh Chucky?

a_rather_tall_man

piggeh wrote: »

The article mentions interest rates being artifically low. However I don't necessarily think that is a good indication currently regarding mortgage affordability for FTBs or new mortgage customers. Many will still be offered a mortgage at 5-7% which has little bearing with the current BOE interest rate at 1%. I do agree that generally people will find it more of a struggle once rates go up, but will mortgage rates remain at +4% or so above BOE rate? I'd imagine some of the increase will be absorbed back by the banks so an increase in interest rates will not have as dramatic an effect on house prices as it has done historically.

The silver measure is also a bit sensationalist by using the rations when silver spiked in price.

House prices still have a long way to fall though, regardless.

This is still the most important factor I think regarding affordability of houses. Unless you have a 25% deposit you can forgot about getting a mortgage at anywhere near the current BoE rate. The nationwide calculator will give you just over 4% for example. There is still a major dislocation between the BoE rate and what customers are being offered.

The next generation of potentional FTB's are leaving University and school into an labour market with rising unemployment and hence a downward pressure on wages...how are they going to save these large deposits to even keep prices level let alone drive them up again?

Blunty

purch wrote: »

Has my eyesight gone wonky....but how can anyone say the two charts are a mirror of each other ???

The 'Denial' 'Bull Trap' 'Fear' 'Capitulation' 'Despair' and 'Return to Mean' bits aren't on the Nominal House Prices chart............and as yet nobody can say for certain whether they will "exactly" mirror whats above, or even get close !!!!

That's a fair point you make - no one really knows... but, at the same time, it almost sounds like the beginning of 'Denial'!