UK economy set for worst year since 1931 as output collapses

Andrew64

This is the gloomy real world. Any guesses where unemployment will end up? 3.2 million, 3.5 million?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/uk-economy-set-for-worst-year-since-1931-as-output-collapses-1642201.html

Industry's pain intensifies with 12 per cent fall in output and no relief in sight

The Office for National Statistics reported yesterday that manufacturing output fell by 6.4 per cent in the three months to January – an even faster rate of decline than the 4.9 per cent contraction seen in the quarter to December. The motor industry was one of the hardest-hit sectors – output falling by 10.6 per cent during the quarter. Overall, the annual rate of decline in output has reached an alarming 12 per cent. Analysts were shocked by the figures, as they point to a GDP decline in the early part of this year that may prove even steeper than that seen during the last few months of 2008, when GDP shrank by 1.5 per cent. The research firm Capital Economics said that the trends could point to GDP contracting over 2009 by "4 per cent or so". Such a result would rank as the country's worst year for economic growth since 1931 – which saw a fall in excess of 5 per cent, the collapse of a Labour government and ushered in a miserable decade of mass unemployment and hunger. A 4 per cent slide would easily beat the post-war record of a 2.1 per cent slump, set in 1980.

Mathew

Thats cheered me up for the day ahead!;)

JP45

This is certainly worrying news and is yet further proof - if any more were needed - that the current recession is significantly worse than that of the early eighties or nineties.

If it's any consolation, the outlook in other parts of the world appears just as bleak if not worse.

There is an interesting article by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard on the Telegraph's web site which argues that the drastic steps taken by the Bank of England should help the UK to fare better than many other nations. As he points out in the article:

As it is we have seen industrial production collapse in every region. The drops in January were: Japan (-31pc), Korea (-26pc), Russia (-16pc), Brazil (-15pc), Italy (-14pc), Germany (-12pc). Falls that took two years from late 1929 have been compressed into five months.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/4958395/Thanks-to-the-Bank-its-a-crisis-in-the-eurozone-its-a-total-catastrophe.html

ad44downey

Andrew64 wrote: »

This is the gloomy real world. Any guesses where unemployment will end up? 3.2 million, 3.5 million?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/uk-economy-set-for-worst-year-since-1931-as-output-collapses-1642201.html

Industry's pain intensifies with 12 per cent fall in output and no relief in sight

The Office for National Statistics reported yesterday that manufacturing output fell by 6.4 per cent in the three months to January – an even faster rate of decline than the 4.9 per cent contraction seen in the quarter to December. The motor industry was one of the hardest-hit sectors – output falling by 10.6 per cent during the quarter. Overall, the annual rate of decline in output has reached an alarming 12 per cent. Analysts were shocked by the figures, as they point to a GDP decline in the early part of this year that may prove even steeper than that seen during the last few months of 2008, when GDP shrank by 1.5 per cent. The research firm Capital Economics said that the trends could point to GDP contracting over 2009 by "4 per cent or so". Such a result would rank as the country's worst year for economic growth since 1931 – which saw a fall in excess of 5 per cent, the collapse of a Labour government and ushered in a miserable decade of mass unemployment and hunger. A 4 per cent slide would easily beat the post-war record of a 2.1 per cent slump, set in 1980.

All this and we're only just at the beginning of the depression. You can just imagine how bad it's going to get as it progresses.

purch

The Office for National Statistics reported yesterday that manufacturing output fell by 6.4 per cent in the three months to January

If the ONS reports that, there is one thing we can certainly guarantee.

Manufacturing Output did not fall by 6.4% in the 3 months to January 2009. :eek:

It was probably more, maybe less, but definately not 6.4% !!!!

thriftybabe

Andrew64 wrote: »

This is the gloomy real world. Any guesses where unemployment will end up? 3.2 million, 3.5 million?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/uk-economy-set-for-worst-year-since-1931-as-output-collapses-1642201.html

Industry's pain intensifies with 12 per cent fall in output and no relief in sight

The Office for National Statistics reported yesterday that manufacturing output fell by 6.4 per cent in the three months to January – an even faster rate of decline than the 4.9 per cent contraction seen in the quarter to December. The motor industry was one of the hardest-hit sectors – output falling by 10.6 per cent during the quarter. Overall, the annual rate of decline in output has reached an alarming 12 per cent. Analysts were shocked by the figures, as they point to a GDP decline in the early part of this year that may prove even steeper than that seen during the last few months of 2008, when GDP shrank by 1.5 per cent. The research firm Capital Economics said that the trends could point to GDP contracting over 2009 by "4 per cent or so". Such a result would rank as the country's worst year for economic growth since 1931 – which saw a fall in excess of 5 per cent, the collapse of a Labour government and ushered in a miserable decade of mass unemployment and hunger. A 4 per cent slide would easily beat the post-war record of a 2.1 per cent slump, set in 1980.

I think possibly 4 million unemployed by end of next year. Things are contracting so fast the country is in free fall - just like my bank balance!;)