seat belts on folks the plane has just begun to learn the meaning of gravity

Harry_Powell

I'm all for falling house prices, but I simply don't understand why people on here are so obsessed with the prices in the US and why they feel the UK will mirror the US housing market almost identically?

We have much more liberal welfare system, debtors here cannot simply walk away from their debts as in some parts of the US, we have much less land per capita. What am I missing? Why should the UK track the US in this regard?

MONDYMAN_3

Because of the huge ammount of personal debt we are carrying . In the great recession obviously you know from history things were real bad.
We have exactly the same circumstances now but also we have huge personal debt ( not everyone but over 1 trillion in the Uk ) and also a budget deficit as well to contend with so this recession is going to be worse.
You cannot spend your way out of a recession , its basic economics 101..you cannot print money from nowhere and use it to prop up the economy..Liken it to 2 men falling overboard a ship the heavier man cannot swim so he say's ill stand on your shoulders while you swim....eventually you both sink..
America is playing a huge gamble with the world's economy ( it is bankrupt all ready and has nothing to lose ) Personally i think the Uk will be cap in hand to the IMF in the next few years and the Euro will be presented as the answer to all our problems ( ugh ! )
The lessons of history show that countries and nations CAN be manipulated by altering the flow of credit , what we are seeing is a big chessgame being played by major banking families and we are the pawns.

Harry_Powell

MONDYMAN wrote: »

Because of the huge ammount of personal debt we are carrying . In the great recession obviously you know from history things were real bad.
We have exactly the same circumstances now but also we have huge personal debt ( not everyone but over 1 trillion in the Uk

But things weren't 'real bad' at all for the UK in the Great (Depression), unlike the US which really suffered. We certainly didn't have the same levels of personal debt because ordinary folk did not have access to credit in the same way back then.

IveSeenTheLight

Wookster wrote: »

7.88 out of 100 mortgages are in arrears :eek:

Good heavens!

According to the CML, 205,300 mortgages were in arrears of greater than 2.5% of the mortgage balance out of 11.1Million mortgaged properties

This would make the figure 1.85 out of 100 mortgages

http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/2262

Their prediction come the end of the year is that this figure will be 3.24 out of 100 mortgages will be in arrears by more than 2.5% of the mortgage balance

To average these figures, the average mortgage balance is circa 90,000
2.5% of this figure is £2,286

Therefore the prediction at the end of the year is that 360,000 mortgages will be in arrears by more than £2,286.

bubblesmoney

Harry_Powell wrote: »

I'm all for falling house prices, but I simply don't understand why people on here are so obsessed with the prices in the US and why they feel the UK will mirror the US housing market almost identically?

We have much more liberal welfare system, debtors here cannot simply walk away from their debts as in some parts of the US, we have much less land per capita. What am I missing? Why should the UK track the US in this regard?

isnt this the story that brown tried to sell and failed miserably as well that the uk is insular from the probs in the usa. the usa is the biggest economy so obviously bad things happening there affect the global economy as well. havent uk banks landed in the deep !!!!!! because they bought usa MBS and CMBS, so if the CRE situation is getting worse there then isnt it logical that the banks here which over expanded by leveraging will be in deeper trouble? and by extension they will be dipping into the tax payers pockets more.

or should we just be pontificating about some sheep farms price in the backwoods of wales instead! no offence intended to sheep or people in wales or farms i should add in this time of increased sensitivities.

isnt it obvious from the mary portas thread that CRE in the uk is taking a big hit as well. so why shouldnt the situations in usa and uk be a bit similar. the presence or absense of welfare isnt going to do much to rescue the CRE situation and even might impact the capabilty to continue the welfare situation adequately. so yes it is very relavant or this board would have been named the debate 'uk only' economy and recession board or something like that.

if baltic index takes a hit its obvious that uk economy will take a hit as well. not many countries are that insular now. welfare cant go on endlessless in the face of mounting debt and lesser revenues coming into the coffers. sooner or later something has got to give. there is no such thing as a free lunch till eternity for anyone.

Harry_Powell

bubblesmoney wrote: »

isnt this the story that brown tried to sell and failed miserably as well that the uk is insular from the probs in the usa. the usa is the biggest economy so obviously bad things happening there affect the global economy as well. havent uk banks landed in the deep !!!!!! because they bought usa MBS and CMBS, so if the CRE situation is getting worse there then isnt it logical that the banks here which over expanded by leveraging will be in deeper trouble? and by extension they will be dipping into the tax payers pockets more.

or should we just be pontificating about some sheep farms price in the backwoods of wales instead! no offence intended to sheep or people in wales or farms i should add in this time of increased sensitivities.

isnt it obvious from the mary portas thread that CRE in the uk is taking a big hit as well. so why shouldnt the situations in usa and uk be a bit similar. the presence or absense of welfare isnt going to do much to rescue the CRE situation and even might impact the capabilty to continue the welfare situation adequately. so yes it is very relavant or this board would have been named the debate 'uk only' economy and recession board or something like that.

if baltic index takes a hit its obvious that uk economy will take a hit as well. not many countries are that insular now. welfare cant go on endlessless in the face of mounting debt and lesser revenues coming into the coffers. sooner or later something has got to give. there is no such thing as a free lunch till eternity for anyone.

Are we talking about the stock market or housing markets?

Forgive my ignorance, but what is "CRE"? I tried to google it and all I got was Commission for Racial Equality. I assume this isn't what you meant?

bubblesmoney

Harry_Powell wrote: »

Are we talking about the stock market or housing markets?

Forgive my ignorance, but what is "CRE"? I tried to google it and all I got was Commission for Racial Equality. I assume this isn't what you meant?

yikes dont tell me you complained about me to the CRE (Commission for Racial Equality) because of my comments on welsh sheep farms etc . thousand apologies before they come and get me.

by CRE i mean commercial real estate.

Masomnia

MONDYMAN wrote: »

Because of the huge ammount of personal debt we are carrying . In the great recession obviously you know from history things were real bad.
We have exactly the same circumstances now but also we have huge personal debt ( not everyone but over 1 trillion in the Uk ) and also a budget deficit as well to contend with so this recession is going to be worse.
You cannot spend your way out of a recession , its basic economics 101..you cannot print money from nowhere and use it to prop up the economy..Liken it to 2 men falling overboard a ship the heavier man cannot swim so he say's ill stand on your shoulders while you swim....eventually you both sink..
America is playing a huge gamble with the world's economy ( it is bankrupt all ready and has nothing to lose ) Personally i think the Uk will be cap in hand to the IMF in the next few years and the Euro will be presented as the answer to all our problems ( ugh ! )
The lessons of history show that countries and nations CAN be manipulated by altering the flow of credit , what we are seeing is a big chessgame being played by major banking families and we are the pawns.

Do we have the same circumstances?

Remember the First World War? Just under a million British people died as a result (that's soldiers ~850,000 and cvilians ~150,000), about 2% of the population, most of them the primary wage earners. 1.5 million people injured. All this around a decade before Britain's economic problems... and you think we have the same circumstances?

Add to this the fact that we were on the gold standard, had debt from the war, massive inflation, and it really isn't all that similar.

mbga9pgf

These figures will continue to get progressively worse until mid to late 2011. Lots of bad news still to arrive....

Conrad

If UK homeowners could simply walk away from a mortgage as is so in much of the US, then our figures could be comparable to thiers, but until that time ours will remain lower.

Most mortgage holders in the UK have never had such low payments, far lower than the rental equivolent. Several people I know are paying under 0.5%.