Morgan Stanley predicts downturn will be worse than the Depression

geoffky

• Business
• Market Forces blog

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/marketforceslive/2009/mar/06/glaxosmithkline-astrazenecaSome bleak predictions from Morgan Stanley this morning including the forecast that UK profits could fall by 60% in the current downturn - a worse performance than the great depression of the 1930s.
UK equity strategist Graham Secker said this 60% decline assumes a £20bn loss from the banks. The performance would have been even worse if not for a £10bn boost to profits from foreign exchange movements. Secker is also now assuming no growth in 2010, and has also cut his forecast for the year end FTSE 100 level from 4300 to around the current level of around 3500. He writes:

WestonDave

Now the question that poses is - was Graham Secker making such sage predictions prior to 2008 but Morgan Stanley ignored their own man and so ended up in the brown stuff, or more likely none of them had a clue back then and he doesn't now! He might be right but I'm afraid Morgan Stanley bankers don't exactly have a massive amount of credibility right now.

geoffky

I think he is better placed than me to make the call...and its a quite easy one to make..

chucky

geoffky wrote: »

I think he is better placed than me to make the call...and its a quite easy one to make..

really Geoffrey?? :rotfl: :rotfl:

this guy is a bit strange with his predictions - at least Andrew Bolton sticks to his. this guy is all over the place

the same Graham Secker that said in September 2008 - Graham Secker, strategist at Morgan Stanley. "Although we don't know if this is rerun of the 1930s, it does appear that we are close to a bottom."
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/af4c3dc8-85e4-11dd-a1ac-0000779fd18c.html

and in April last year - "A moderately upbeat research report from Mr Secker yesterday helped lift the sector. We believe we are getting close to the trough for retailers' share price performance and recommend that investors consider closing shorts," the report said."
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cc91e304-2eac-11dd-ab55-000077b07658.html

he has a lot of vested interest here - he definitely has his own agenda feeding this type of information to the media

he also claimed in February this year that the FTSE would finish up at around 4,300 by the end of the year.

geoffky

chucky are you really saying that they will do well out of this if it comes true?????

so if i am right you are saying its in morgan stanleys interests if we lose 60% of our profits....is this what you are saying????

Antispam

I sometimes think all these doom and gloom forecasts actually make matters worse, whilst there may be some merit in what they say such forecasts can make matters worse

I had to laugh last night on Question time, one ex banker said he believed many of his ex colleagues didnt know what they were doing. One panellist said he spoke to some banker friends about a mortgage and opted for a fixed on and now paying the price for that decision.

chucky

geoffky wrote: »

chucky are you really saying that they will do well out of this if it comes true?????

so if i am right you are saying its in morgan stanleys interests if we lose 60% of our profits....is this what you are saying????

there is a massive difference between trading and investing.

Morgan Sanley do not invest they trade - if the equity markets go up or down they can still make a profit.

an investor will lose money if the markets go down.

chucky

sockpuppets wrote: »

Greetings fellow sock puppet.

The sock puppet tally is mounting up nicely now. Cheers

hi Wookster

geoffky

Antispam wrote: »

I sometimes think all these doom and gloom forecasts actually make matters worse, whilst there may be some merit in what they say such forecasts can make matters worse

I had to laugh last night on Question time, one ex banker said he believed many of his ex colleagues didnt know what they were doing. One panellist said he spoke to some banker friends about a mortgage and opted for a fixed on and now paying the price for that decision.

so lets ignore all the warnings...where have i seen that before...2007 housing market???

chucky

geoffky wrote: »

so lets ignore all the warnings...where have i seen that before...2007 housing market???

that isn't what is being said geoffrey.

information like this provided by Morgan Stanley who have a different strategy and agenda than a person on the street will/can be interpreted completely differently by people that read it.

yes the markets dropping are bad things but for Morgan Stanley it can be a good thing.

Radsteral

I read a lot and back then when things were ''fine'' these 'strategists and bankers were well respected and possibly admired for their future sighting.
They all got it wrong by a mile and therefore whoever feels sad and depressed by their predictions should just chill and have a dr pepper drink.
I think no one knows so far, though it doesnt seem a great outlook.
hsbc had put a charge a £50 charge to my recently opened joint account with my wife... it had gone 130.00 overdraft and i hadnt noticed
I called the bank and quietly said i would like my 50 quid back , i wont take no for an answer but if somehow i do then right now i want to move bank.. please can you transfer all my money to this barclays account, close my bussines banking terminate my credit card.. my phone number is 0793xxxxxxx.
5 minutes later i get a call. money refunded .
what a little wimp the bank system has come to .... and i dont have milions on my bank .. just few thousands