Armageddon cometh...

Walletwatch

Call me a doom monger or whatever, but what does one do when one reads stuff like this?

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/090305/wall_street.html

Since the Dow and the S&P 500 index plowed through their November lows last week, dashing hopes that the market had indeed hit a bottom, investors have been left wondering how much lower the market can go. At the same time, there is a contingent of investors with a "why sell now" mentality who are fearful of missing the next rally, Salamone said.

"A lot of people are banking we can't go much further, but if you look to the '30s, we could indeed go a lot lower," he said, referring to Wall Street's huge losses during the Great Depression. "Those are the very people that represent selling pressure in the future."

"At this point, you've got to be asking will anything help?" Salamone said. "The fact could very well be that the government can't do very much. They may be able to eliminate some of the pain, but at the same time they may be simply prolonging what inevitably has to happen, which is continued deleveraging."

Really2

Walletwatch wrote: »

Call me a doom monger or whatever, but what does one do when one reads stuff like this?

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/090305/wall_street.html

Stop reading it and looking for it.

StevieJ

Walletwatch wrote: »

Call me a doom monger or whatever, but what does one do when one reads stuff like this?

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/090305/wall_street.html

Doom monger :eek:

StevieJ

One positive is a 10% drop in the value of your portfolio this year is less than a 10% drop last year :beer:

ad9898_3

If you want doom, check Karl Denninger out,

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/852-Whats-Dead-Short-Answer-All-Of-It.html

Just so you have a short list of what's at stake if Washington DC doesn't change policy here and now (which means before the collapse in equities comes, which could start as soon as today, if the indicators I watch have any validity at all. For what its worth, those indicators are painting a picture of the Apocalypse that I simply can't believe, and they're showing it as an imminent event - like perhaps today imminent.)

• All pension funds, private and public, are done. If you are receiving one, you won't be. If you think you will in the future, you won't be. PBGC will fail as well. Pension funds will be forced to start eating their "seed corn" within the next 12 months and once that begins there is no way to recover.
• All annuities will be defaulted to the state insurance protection (if any) on them. The state insurance funds will be bankrupted and unable to be replenished. Essentially, all annuities are toast. Expect zero, be ecstatic if you do better. All insurance companies with material exposure to these obligations will go bankrupt, without exception. Some of these firms are dangerously close to this happening right here and now; the rest will die within the next 6-12 months. If you have other insured interests with these firms, be prepared to pay a LOT more with a new company that can't earn anything off investments, and if you have a claim in process at the time it happens, it won't get paid. The probability of you getting "boned" on any transaction with an insurance company is extremely high - I rate this risk in excess of 90%.
• The FDIC will be unable to cover bank failure obligations. They will attempt to do more of what they're doing now (raising insurance rates and doing special assessments) but will fail; the current path has no chance of success. Congress will backstop them (because they must lest shotguns come out) with disastrous results. In short, FDIC backstops will take precedence even over Social Security and Medicare.
• Government debt costs will ramp. This warning has already been issued and is being ignored by President Obama. When (not if) it happens debt-based Federal Funding will disappear. This leads to....
• Tax receipts are cratering and will continue to. I expect total tax receipts to fall to under $1 trillion within the next 12 months. Combined with the impossibility of continued debt issue (rollover will only remain possible at the short duration Treasury has committed to over the last ten years if they cease new issue) a 66% cut in the Federal Budget will become necessary. This will require a complete repudiation of Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, a 50% cut in the military budget and a 50% across-the-board cut in all other federal programs. That will likely get close.
• Tax-deferred accounts will be seized to fund rollovers of Treasury debt at essentially zero coupon (interest). If you have a 401k, or what's left of it, or an IRA, consider it locked up in Treasuries; it's not yours any more. Count on this happening - it is essentially a certainty.
• Any firm with debt outstanding is currently presumed dead as the street presumption is that they have lied in some way. Expect at least 20% of the S&P 500 to fail within 12 months as a consequence of the complete and total lockup of all credit markets which The Fed will be unable to unlock or backstop. This will in turn lead to....
• The unemployed will have 5-10 million in direct layoffs added within the next 12 months. Collateral damage (suppliers, customers, etc) will add at least another 5-10 million workers to that, perhaps double that many. U-3 (official unemployment rate) will go beyond 15%, U-6 (broad form) will reach 30%.
• Civil unrest will break out before the end of the year. The Military and Guard will be called up to try to stop it. They won't be able to. Big cities are at risk of becoming a free-fire death zone. If you live in one, figure out how you can get out and live somewhere else if you detect signs that yours is starting to go "feral"; witness New Orleans after Katrina for how fast, and how bad, it can get.

Gorgeous_George

I love armageddon (funniest wav file in the world)

GG

mewbie_2

Ok then I'll do it.

Armageddon cometh - then Armageddon outtahere.

Thanks to the late and great Spike Milligan.

Cleaver

Walletwatch wrote: »

Call me a doom monger or whatever, but what does one do when one reads stuff like this?

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/090305/wall_street.html

I kinda just shrug. It's about the stock market and I find it hard to really care. It's all just numbers going up and down really, innit?

I reckon, and I say this with my mighty financial head on, that it will continue to go very low and very high over the next 20 years. But will also spend some time in the middle.

Cleaver

ad9898 wrote: »

If you want doom, check Karl Denninger out,

Tax-deferred accounts will be seized to fund rollovers of Treasury debt at essentially zero coupon (interest).

That's what I've been warning every one on here about for months. You lot, with your tax deferred accounts. I tried to say that they would be siezed to fund rollovers. Tried to tell you. But did you listen? Did you? No. None of you. And now you will see, essentially, zero coupon interest. Zero. No coupon. Noto de coupo. De nada coupones.

<no idea...>

Civil unrest will break out before the end of the year. The Military and Guard will be called up to try to stop it. They won't be able to. Big cities are at risk of becoming a free-fire death zone.

Pah. I live in a rough area of Manchester. I doubt we'll notice any difference. If and when it does happen will one of you be kind enough to send me a PM and let me know?

StevieJ

Tell you what we need, a sort of variance analysis of the Famous and not so Famous Doomie commentators predictions over the years to analyse their credibility, any volunteer for this No leaving out the ones that don't fit in

chucky

depends how you look at it if you're negative or a pessimists

from your aticle - "more than wiping out the previous day's rally."
it's a cancellation of yesterdays gains - tomorrow is another day