Warren Buffet's mantra - 'Buy when no one else is'. So, why aren't you?

Conrad

Laughing_man wrote: »

I don't follow, are you calling a 'bottom'? Is now the best time to buy? If so, why?

Or are you just bored and trolling because no-one wants mortgages today?

Anyway I prefer: 'It's time to buy when the last bull turns bear'

I spawned this thread between doing 2 mortgages yesterday:cool: , and have 2 more to begin today. The recent sustained upturn in enquiries and new business is what's making me think we might be approaching bottom in the South East, but I wouldn't bet the house on it - too early to tell.

I don't know about others here, but I like to talk to people, such as the local news agent, to get a feel for how Jo Bloggs is thinking and this is where the contrast between MSE posters and others is drawn into quite sharp focus.

Of course it's only anecdotal, but none the less if others up and down the land have the same relatively positive attitude as the people I talk to, then this cannot be ignored.

Whilst some people do tell me times are tough, more tell me they feel a lot better off as thier mortgage payments have reduced as never before.

In summary I can't help wondering whether some forum types will be paralyised with analysis, whilst Mr average just gets on and buys a place. Who's to say which will buy at bottom.

stevetodd

Conrad wrote: »

I spawned this thread between doing 2 mortgages yesterday:cool: , and have 2 more to begin today. The recent sustained upturn in enquiries and new business is what's making me think we might be approaching bottom in the South East, but I wouldn't bet the house on it - too early to tell.

I don't know about others here, but I like to talk to people, such as the local news agent, to get a feel for how Jo Bloggs is thinking and this is where the contrast between MSE posters and others is drawn into quite sharp focus.

Of course it's only anecdotal, but none the less if others up and down the land have the same relatively positive attitude as the people I talk to, then this cannot be ignored.

Whilst some people do tell me times are tough, more tell me they feel a lot better off as thier mortgage payments have reduced as never before.

In summary I can't help wondering whether some forum types will be paralyised with analysis, whilst Mr average just gets on and buys a place. Who's to say which will buy at bottom.

It's important to analyse things particularly before buying a house (or flat) anyone who doesn't is just a fool. I don't think we are at the bottom yet, but I do think it might be a good time to buy with a good offer getting a big discount, I am not concerned with buying at the absolute bottom I am more concerned with buying something that stacks up financially.

mbga9pgf

stevetodd wrote: »

It's important to analyse things particularly before buying a house (or flat) anyone who doesn't is just a fool. I don't think we are at the bottom yet, but I do think it might be a good time to buy with a good offer getting a big discount, I am not concerned with buying at the absolute bottom I am more concerned with buying something that stacks up financially.

I bet Warren Buffett is wishing he viewed housepricecrash.co.uk last year reading this....

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/4885828/Warren-Buffett-loses-billions.html

His mantra may have worked in the standard recession model. Shame what we are experiencing is anything but standard...

stevetodd

mbga9pgf wrote: »

I bet Warren Buffett is wishing he viewed housepricecrash.co.uk last year reading this....

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/4885828/Warren-Buffett-loses-billions.html

His mantra may have worked in the standard recession model. Shame what we are experiencing is anything but standard...

Yeah, but the person that has never made a mistake has never done anything and certainly never stuck his neck out

barrooo

purch wrote: »

I just heard a rumour that he said "Buy 64 Acacia Avenue cos no one else will"

Isn't that where Bananaman lives, so I doubt its even up for sale

Wookster

Conrad wrote: »

I spawned this thread between doing 2 mortgages yesterday:cool: , and have 2 more to begin today. The recent sustained upturn in enquiries and new business is what's making me think we might be approaching bottom in the South East,

I don't know how anyone can say we're nearly reached the bottom. The news just gets worse and worse and worse. How will house prices stabilise when
- Unemployment is rising and there are still firesales
- Financing is still quite difficult to come by
- Financial services, a major contributing factor to high prices is still contracting
- Perhaps most importantly, house prices are still significantly above their long term average.

luvpump

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/4885828/Warren-Buffett-loses-billions.html

purch

Well at least we have some more "Buffettisms" to trot out...

"During 2008 I did some dumb things in investments"

"Whether we're talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down,"

"the economy will be in shambles throughout 2009 — and, for that matter, probably well beyond — but that conclusion does not tell us whether the stock market will rise or fall."

"As we view Geico's current opportunities, Tony and I feel like two hungry mosquitoes in a nudist camp. Juicy targets are everywhere,"

Thrugelmir

mbga9pgf wrote: »

His mantra may have worked in the standard recession model. Shame what we are experiencing is anything but standard...

Even WB is probably revising his investment strategy.

On Sunday, 18th January 2009, Warren Buffet was asked to comment on Jeff Immelt, the CEO of General Electric, for his description of the current crisis: “This is not a cycle, it's a reset”.

Buffet’s answer was:

“Well, there's some real truth to that. And we have lived in one way in one type of economy. And we're now deleveraging that economy. We're gonna have to live without the same impetus from credit expansion that really helped propel the economic engine for a long period of time.

bubblesmoney

mbga9pgf wrote: »

I bet Warren Buffett is wishing he viewed housepricecrash.co.uk last year reading this....

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/4885828/Warren-Buffett-loses-billions.html

His mantra may have worked in the standard recession model. Shame what we are experiencing is anything but standard...

but buffet still delivered much better than most others including the index all these years. he might have made lesser this year but his track record is phenomenal. see his latest yearly report and see the yearly returns from 1965.

Compounded Annual Gain – 1965-2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.3%(berkshire shares) 8.9%(S&P 500 with dividends incl) 11.4(relative results)

Overall Gain – 1964-2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 362,319% (berkshire) 4,276%(S&P 500 with dividends incl)

but see one peice in his investments that might put a spanner in the plan.

Considering the ruin [of derivatives that] I’ve pictured, you may wonder why Berkshire is a party to 251 derivatives contracts (other than those used for operational purposes at MidAmerican and the few left over at Gen Re). The answer is simple: I believe each contract we own was mispriced at inception, sometimes dramatically so. I both initiated these positions and monitor them, a set of responsibilities consistent with my belief that the CEO of any large financial organization must be the Chief Risk Officer as well. If we lose money on our derivatives, it will be my fault.

quote from page 20 of the annual report link given above