repossessions predicted this year will reach about 75,000.

pickles110564

novazombie wrote: »

This will mean auctions flooded and only the very best places will actually sell and then for maybe 50% down from todays prices.

Dream Dream Dream.

Generali

Reaper wrote: »

Well... the 75,000 figure comes from the CML so let's look at their record:

2007: Their prediction was 10% over the top
2008: Their prediction was 12.5% over the top

They have been over estimating the problem so far in the downturn, and have left their 2009 predication unchanged despite these latest figures.

I'm not saying I know what they will be, just that these guys are no better at guessing than we are.

So we could estimate 65,000 repos this year from the above.

Or a range of 65,000-85,000 if the estimates are 10-13% 'out' rather than just too high.

thriftybabe

wymondham wrote: »

As unemployment starts to spiral, so will repossesions. I think 75,000 is on the low side. Government intervention to help people keep their homes is late and I think doomed to fail going on previous attempts (Gordon has the midas touch in reverse!). Still, at least it's spring and the nights are drawing out - hopefully the summer will be long and hot so we will be able to fill our newly found spare time doing outdoor activities!

It will need to be outdoor activities that cost nothing in our household!;)

wymondham

With the flood of repos coming on, house prices will fall still further, meaning more can potentially get into a reposession problem if they can't pay and had purchased at an inflated price and so the spiral continues.... ;-(

wymondham

thriftybabe wrote: »

It will need to be outdoor activities that cost nothing in our household!;)

How about demonstration marches? - They'll be lots to choose from this Summer - I bet people could fill their whole week by late Summer!

mrposhman

wymondham wrote: »

With the flood of repos coming on, house prices will fall still further, meaning more can potentially get into a reposession problem if they can't pay and had purchased at an inflated price and so the spiral continues.... ;-(

House prices falling have absolutely nothing to do with reposessions. The fact that a capital asset may have fallen in price has not impact on your day to day costs.

If anyone bought a house, has seen interest rates fall as they have, haven't lost their jobs but still have problems paying their mortgage then frankly I find very little sympathy for them as they clearly took on far more than they could chew in the first place.

The increase in reposessions will be caused by further unemployment because spending doesn't increase and this is the likely future, but this has nothing to do with house prices. It has the knock on effect that it impacts house prices but to suggest that a fall in house prices was the driver for more reposessions is completely illogical.

Generali

mrposhman wrote: »

House prices falling have absolutely nothing to do with reposessions. The fact that a capital asset may have fallen in price has not impact on your day to day costs.

If you have equity in your home then you can borrow against it to raise cash to enable you to keep paying the mortgage. Alternatively you can sell and pay off your mortgage.

If house prices fall so you have no equity or have negative amounts of equity in your home then clearly those options are closed to you.

That's one reason why house prices falling leads to more repossessions.

chucky

Generali wrote: »

If you have equity in your home then you can borrow against it to raise cash to enable you to keep paying the mortgage. Alternatively you can sell and pay off your mortgage.

If house prices fall so you have no equity or have negative amounts of equity in your home then clearly those options are closed to you.

That's one reason why house prices falling leads to more repossessions.

not really - if you're in negative equity and servicing your debt, why would you be repossessed?

apart from the fantasy Margin Calls that are not happening - there would be no reason to be repossessed.

Generali

chucky wrote: »

not really - if you're in negative equity and servicing your debt, why would you be repossessed?

apart from the fantasy Margin Calls that are not happening - there would be no reason to be repossessed.

Clearly you wouldn't be repossessed if you're servicing your debt.

If you're not and you have equity in your home you have options available which aren't open to those without equity.

chucky

Generali wrote: »

Clearly you wouldn't be repossessed if you're servicing your debt.

If you're not and you have equity in your home you have options available which aren't open to those without equity.

i've misunderstood your post or you've replied to Mr Poshmans post with something else.
i'm a not a betting man so it's me