So when will House Prices Hit the Bottom?

Gangstabird

exil wrote: »

The average deposit is now 18%. The number of FTBs is now about 20% of what it was at the peak - but there are still some, even though prices are currently heading downwards. As soon as they hit the bottom there is a huge latent demand and we will soon be back in the world of gazumpers and irritating "how to make a million from property" TV programmes.

Don't ask me when that will happen - but it will.

How though and this is a genuine question, if the people from the lower end of pay scales are losing their jobs and lots of small business's are going bust, where on earth does it start from?

mewbie_2

exil wrote: »

The average deposit is now 18%. The number of FTBs is now about 20% of what it was at the peak - but there are still some, even though prices are currently heading downwards. As soon as they hit the bottom there is a huge latent demand and we will soon be back in the world of gazumpers and irritating "how to make a million from property" TV programmes.

Don't ask me when that will happen - but it will.

No it won't.

lostinrates

Gangstabird wrote: »

But will someone please tell me where these first time buyers are that are going to get the market going. No one can borrow 100/95% any more which is what held up the markets for eons.

........

I do agree with you, in the main, but presumably there ARE FTBs who are saving but have never saved 'enough' and hopefully they won't all lose their jobs and will be continuing to save even now. Of course it won't return to the '2007 borrowing' any time soon....but isn't that also a good thing?

Wookster

I would be a return to 2000/2001 price levels and I don't see any increase in prices until unemployment bottoms out.

Its a bit fanciful to think prices have bottomed out now as the economic news just gets worse and worse.

besonders1

exil wrote: »

The average deposit is now 18%. The number of FTBs is now about 20% of what it was at the peak - but there are still some, even though prices are currently heading downwards. As soon as they hit the bottom there is a huge latent demand and we will soon be back in the world of gazumpers and irritating "how to make a million from property" TV programmes.

Don't ask me when that will happen - but it will.

Its a frequent belief on here but if that was the case then house prices would not drop at all, It is more like it that the prices will stay an all time low for a few years like they did in 1995 ish. What your saying may be true in the next 15-20 years or so when we have "forgotten" about the 2007 boom but even then we have never seen anything like the kind of irresponsible lending and surge in prices like we have in the past 10 years. The prices have increased well before their time in terms of the ratio between wages-mortgages. The scariest thing about it is what the new criteria and lending will banks have in place for FTB's to safeguard against another boom and increase in repossessions.

Cleaver

mewbie wrote: »

No it won't.

Yes it will.

I win.

bubblesmoney

pyewackitt wrote: »

I often refer the HPC people to his OECD document from 2005:

http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/40/6/35816576.pdf

Page 29 lists the historic data for downturns.

The UK average is 16 quarters and the longest downturn is 25 quarters.

Assuming that the crash began in summer 2007 the crash is likely to bottom between 2011 Q3 and 2013 Q4 - but because the length of this rise was unprecidented it may even continue decline beyond this.

i too think it will be maybe prices will bottom out around or after 2014. the ALT-A mortgages are last due for resets in 2014, so until then no one will know what the default rate of those 'no documentation' mortgages will be. so banks carry the crap till then as zombie banks unless they go bust in the meantime or tax payer bails them out and tax payer takes the crap.

but if the house prices somehow relates to the share market downturn as well for recovery then it might stretch to 2017 +/- a couple of years (based on the long wave valuation theory applied to the DOW30) since the stock market downturn originally started in 2000 so add 17y to that you get 2017 plus or minus a couple of years variation up or down. then the cycle begins again !!

Thrugelmir

geoffky wrote: »

the real experts predict

City traders have started betting the property market has bottomed, a reversal of the downward trend that has lasted almost a year The property derivatives market — where traders bet on what will happen to house prices — is still indicating a 44% fall in property values from peak to trough, more than even the most bearish economists.
However, that is not as bad as it was just a few weeks ago, according to broker Tullett Prebon.
At the beginning of February, the market was pricing in a 47% fall in the Halifax index — or a further 31% decline on top of the 16% so far. The market is now pricing in a smaller decline of 28% before a trough is predicted in 2011.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/property_and_mortgages/article5779222.ece

but the City traders will be hedging their risk with a contrian bet. I'd be interested to know where the lay off is? Anybody hazard a guess?:rolleyes:

Cat695

it took about 8 years in the last recession before they picked up again.....

ninky_2

i reckon spring 2013.