Doom & Gloom

Max_Headroom_3

chucky wrote: »

but there are lot's predicting 70%

and i agree with the rest of your post

The truth is, no one can predict actual percentages, and anyway, it's bound to vary per area.

Where I live, a 2 bed tiny starter home on an average estate peaked at £150K. Now down here, if you're a young but moderately successful employed chap you're doing quite well if you're on £20K a year. So at 3.5x that you should be looking to borrow £70K, plus maybe a 10% deposit if you've really saved hard and that pitched it at about £80K.

Add to that the fact that these places were fairly reliably £49K 15 years ago and that feels about right.

So if I had to guess, I'd say that in my area prices are due to very roughly halve from the peak.

Out of interest, these places I refer to are currently dipping under £120K, which given things have only gone bad less than a year ago would also suggest falls of that area to me.

Max_Headroom_3

ukcarper wrote: »

I also think the fall in house prices is not a bad thing even though it will cost me money.

Out of interest, why will it cost you money?

My house has dropped £30K I reckon, it's not cost me a bean. Neither did I "make" any money when it went up by £100K.

If anything I might decide to buy a bigger house in which case these drops will have saved me money (a more expensive house dropping the same percentage will lose more than mine).

Chances are I'll sit tight though, so where's the cost?

ukcarper

I was thinking of downsizing if I stay put which I can afford to do, I agree it won’t cost me anything. I agree falling house prices benefit a lot of people including those thinking of trading up.

Max_Headroom_3

Go on then, I'l let you off!

Yes, if you're downsizing then it could cost you more.

Wookster

Max_Headroom wrote: »

The truth is, no one can predict actual percentages, and anyway, it's bound to vary per area.

My money is on a return to 2000/2001 property prices by the time this is all finished.

ukcarper

It's not me i'm worried about if house prices fall by 70%, after all as you say even if I do down size it's only 70% of money i've never really had. But surely a drop of 70% would put the majority of people in negative equity and that means they are stuck where they are.

Maisie11

100% agree re area. What is this average this and average that. It doesnt mean anything. If the 'average' house price is £150k and you want to live in Mayfair or Weybridge then it means nothing.

Thrugelmir

mizzbiz wrote: »

Unfortunately, we live in a one bed flat because House Prices are too expensive. Once house prices CRASH and BURN, we will then be snaffling a lovely three bedroom country cottage thank you very much.

The boom meant that FTB's could only afford 1 bedroom flats, so in fact, I think that the opposite view to your argument will be the case :-)

On average house prices are falling, but a lovely three bedroom country cottage will always command a premium price to the market.

Dreamt of buying one myself years ago ....... and still a dream.

ukcarper

Wookster wrote: »

My money is on a return to 2000/2001 property prices by the time this is all finished.

Funny just looked on nethouseprices and thats where my figure of £124,000 comes up.

ukcarper

Maisie11 wrote: »

100% agree re area. What is this average this and average that. It doesnt mean anything. If the 'average' house price is £150k and you want to live in Mayfair or Weybridge then it means nothing.

Funny you mention Weybridge as thats where I was working when I paid £8000 for the above house which is on the surrey Hants border. At the time I was living in Cobham and there was no way I could afford a house in that area.