Rationalist logic = poor predictions. Why the uber bears will be wrong.

SingleSue

The point about parents coming to the rescue - Now I am sure my parents are not unique in their thinking but they prefer their children to find their own way in life (apart from the occasional small help out financially on a loan basis) and to that end, have consistently stated they are not there to help us get on the property ladder or pay for our lives in any way.

Their arguement is that they had to do it on their own and also suffer hardship due to a life changing injury to my father but managed to get back on their feet (literally in my father's case) and hold onto their house and so should we.

Some would call it tough love or selfish....I call it sensible.

moggylover

macaque wrote: »

And the reason is that they are still trying to sell at bubble prices.

Possibly, but some have dropped quite a bit and are STILL not selling.

pandamonia

the reason you wont see a dramatic recovery is because the 2nd hand mortgage market doesnt exsist any more. they cant bundle them up and sell them off to make money, there is a distinct lack of capital in the banks.

when its your last fiver you spend it more wisely

this is what the banks are now doing. lending will be far more controlled than before because of the intense scrutiny from the gov

b0rker

SingleSue wrote: »

Some would call it tough love or selfish....I call it sensible.

Will your parents be leaving any inheritance to the RSPCA or a similar charity?

Cleaver

mower5 wrote: »

Average household debt in the UK is ~ £59,700 (including mortgages).
Average owed by every UK adult is ~ £30,435 (including mortgages).

http://www.creditaction.org.uk/debt-statistics.html

Maybe it's because I'm in my 20's, but I've seen these figures on here before and it always surprises me how low they are. I guess it's because I've never seen a house really below 100k once I started even thinking about buying one, so 80K - 90K seems a 'normal low' amount of household debt to me.

SingleSue

b0rker wrote: »

Will your parents be leaving any inheritance to the RSPCA or a similar charity?

We have told them to sell up and enjoy the money...my father being disabled and my mother being in declining health they will probably end up in a care home anyway and of course, their house (or any proceeds from a sale) will provide for that (decent pensions, savings etc so no help would be forthcoming from the state).

Anything left from that will be split between me and my siblings, we don't expect it and would prefer for them to benefit from the hardship they have had to go through over the years.

As for charities, I have no idea as although I am the executor of their wills, I have not had a thorough perusal of their documents and am only aware of the basic wishes with regards to us, their children.

ad9898_3

StevieJ wrote: »

My view has always been that this housing correction was created by a removal of credit and will bottom on an injection of credit. It was not a gentle slowdown over a period of time, it happened virtually overnight, I can see the turnaround happening in exactly the same way.

This has to be incorrect Steve, there has been a correction because property was just too expensive and wasn't worth anywhere near the ridiculous values put on it. That's what happen in the USA and it's the same here.

To say it's the removal of credit has to be wrong. e.g. would you buy an old Ford Escort for 10k if someone said it would only cost you £5 a month ???, or would you think 'well the credit is cheap, but the car isn't worth 10k anyway, so why take a loan out on it'

I'm sure most, including yourself would think the latter.

JonnyBravo

Cleaver wrote: »

Maybe it's because I'm in my 20's, but I've seen these figures on here before and it always surprises me how low they are. I guess it's because I've never seen a house really below 100k once I started even thinking about buying one, so 80K - 90K seems a 'normal low' amount of household debt to me.

Partly due to that, but also due to the huge number of "£0 mortgages" in the equation.
I think its 60% (?) of properties don't have a mortgage at all.
Add that many zeros to a mean average sum and the result always surprises.

(ok ok.... has the potential to surprise)

Lotus-eater

Cleaver wrote: »

Maybe it's because I'm in my 20's, but I've seen these figures on here before and it always surprises me how low they are. I guess it's because I've never seen a house really below 100k once I started even thinking about buying one, so 80K - 90K seems a 'normal low' amount of household debt to me.

I think it is because you are in your 20's.

My first house 1998, £55k, my wages 16k
Worth about £120k at peak, wages for the same job about £19k.

80 - 90k of debt seems alot to me.

dopester

ad9898 wrote: »

To say it's the removal of credit has to be wrong. e.g. would you buy an old Ford Escort for 10k if someone said it would only cost you £5 a month ???, or would you think 'well the credit is cheap, but the car isn't worth 10k anyway, so why take a loan out on it'

I'm sure most, including yourself would think the latter.

I've got to side with StevieJ on the restriction of credit part.

Your argument is also fair-ish ad9898, but the availability of credit, and arguments like supply-and-demand (not enough supply - small island ect) saw market hysteria, with people buying at ever increasingly stupidly high prices - for years.

Just look on Rightmove for a reminder of current prices people still think their property is worth.

People lost all sense of being able to value property with easy credit and flimsy excuses of why such values were sustainable, and some deluded mindset that if you're in debt for £250,000 on a £240,000 slavebox.. you're somehow wealthy, and continued HPI will see you right anyway.