12 ways in which Peter Schiff/ !!!!!!? were wrong

wintersunshine

"There's no doubt that Euro Pacific Capital's Peter Schiff has struck a chord among the legions of angry Americans looking to make sense of the financial crisis. He's a constant and controversial presence on cable news shows, and over the past few years has built his free-market, hands-off approach to fixing the crisis into a formidable one-man brand, including two books in addition to his money management business.
So how do Schiff's clients actually fare? Mike Shedlock a.k.a. Mish says not so well. In a long discussion of Euro Pacific's strategy, he lays out Schiff's investing thesis and lists "12 Ways Schiff Was Wrong in 2008":
Schiff's Investment Thesis

• US Dollar Will Go To Zero (Hyperinflation).
• Decoupling (The rest of the world would be immune to a US slowdown.
• Buy foreign equities and commodities and hold them with no exit strategy.

12 Ways Schiff Was Wrong in 2008

• Wrong about hyperinflation
• Wrong about the dollar
• Wrong about commodities except for gold
• Wrong about foreign currencies except for the Yen
• Wrong about foreign equities
• Wrong in timing
• Wrong in risk management
• Wrong in buy and hold thesis
• Wrong on decoupling
• Wrong on China
• Wrong on US treasuries
• Wrong on interest rates, both foreign and domestic

That's a lot of things to be wrong about, especially given all the "Peter Schiff Was Right" videos floating around everywhere. The one thing he was right about was the collapse of US equities and no part of his investment strategy sought to make a gain from that prediction.

Peter Schiff concludes many of his articles, books, etc. with the claim he saw this coming and positioned his clients accordingly."

Full Article here -

http://www.usnews.com/blogs/the-ticker/2009/01/26/peter-schiff-right-on-the-crisis-wrong-on-investing.html

the_ash_and_the_oak

I think all the above can be summarized into the fact he was wrong about Decoupling. The other ways are all due to the non-happening of decoupling

luvpump

The Things Schiff has been "Wrong" about are hugely out-numbered by the things he was "Right" about, hence the almost cult following he now has, one thing is for certain if American (and U.k) Banks had followed the prudent fiscal policies he advocates the world would not be in this mess !!... period ..

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=2I0QN-FYkpw

purch

are hugely out-numbered by the things he was "Right" about

He was only right about one thing :eek:

It was all gonna end in tears !!!!!!

wintersunshine

purch wrote: »

He was only right about one thing :eek:

It was all gonna end in tears !!!!!!

Maybe - my point is - should all the posters from HPC be allowed to push the views of one man, given that he's made no money? Especially without making clear that they are pushing the views of an investment guru who has failed? Furthermore, should they be allowed to push these views as if they were their own? This is a money saving site after all? Not a big deal for me - just an interesting discussion point.

Maybe this board should come with a warning that it has been infiltrated by the disciples of Peter Schiff and have come to spread his word to all who'll listen...

Really2

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

I think all the above can be summarized into the fact he was wrong about Decoupling. The other ways are all due to the non-happening of decoupling

But I think any one could see the worlds biggest economy is going to effect the whole world. (Even more so in the modern global economy)

Just like people saying china had decoupled, balls.

Any country that is a massive importer or exporter will never decouple as their trade (or lack of it) will always have a massive effect on the world economies.

Decoupling relys on others being self sufficient. I can't think of one country that is so we are all effected when any one is hit.

the_ash_and_the_oak

He was right about the problem. He was wrong about the solution (though if you take a UK perspective rather than a US perspective then he is significantly less wrong - not that this is much comfort to any US clients he may have)

Cannon_Fodder

wintersunshine wrote: »

- should all the posters from HPC be allowed to push the views of one man...

I haven't pushed his views. I'm pretty sure there are dozens of others who haven't either.

Try posting some alternatives, to widen the forum's scope if its not covering all the bases you would like it to.

wintersunshine

Really2 wrote: »

But I think any one could see the worlds biggest economy is going to effect the whole world. (Even more so in the modern global economy)

Just like people saying china had decoupled, balls.

Any country that is a massive importer or exporter will never decouple as their trade (or lack of it) will always have a massive effect on the world economies.

Decoupling relys on others being self sufficient. I can't think of one country that is so we are all effected when any one is hit.

And if you can be wrong about something as basic as that. Take China - how wrong was he about that:-

"The big thing Schiff missed this year was in his decoupling theories. Schiff invested as if the US would crash and that everything else would be fine. The decoupling theory never made much sense. To believe in decoupling is to believe the tail wags the dog. And instead of saying how much his fund is up off the lows, he ought to disclose precisely how his anti-dollar fund plays are doing this year.

What happened was that although the US stock market collapsed, China, India, Iceland, Japan, the UK, and numerous other places collapsed more. So when the dollar rallied on top of that, investments in those places got mercilessly hammered."

wintersunshine

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

I haven't pushed his views. I'm pretty sure there are dozens of others who haven't either.

Try posting some alternatives, to widen the forum's scope if its not covering all the bases you would like it to.

But there are posters who have - you must admit? Not that I see it as a big issue - I just think if you are pushing a view maybe you should be clear about where that view is coming from?

StevieJ

Don't tell me he lost a stack if dosh :rotfl:
Sorry other peoples dosh:eek:

Take note !!!!!!, beware of false profits (or losses in his case)