Is this actually turning into a Depression?

Wookster

Conflict wrote: »

Back to this Downturn/Economic Readjustment/Recession and yes its going to be a bad one, worse in many ways than 1930's but in some not as bad as 1970's, it really is a different animal due to what is causing it. The only experience we have of a economic situation like this, is the one previously mentioned in the 1830's, but given the world is globalised, the Internet, etc it will be a very different to even that.

I have to disagree that this won't be worse than the 70s. It is likely to be quite significantly worse, simply because a huge proportion of the economy is developed around segments of the market which grew out of debt & excess rather than any meaningful provision of service.

What's likely to make this much longer is that a fundamental rebalancing of the economy is required - Britain has got rich off a gigantic fonzi scheme (housing bubble) and that is coming crashing down now. To regain growth it must be replaced with something substantive, sustainable and real: more production of marketable goods and services.

I'm afraid that is many painful years away.

kennyboy66_2

Wookster wrote: »

- Britain has got rich off a gigantic fonzi scheme .

Except "Happy Days" won't be here again.

Wookster

kennyboy66 wrote: »

Except "Happy Days" won't be here again.

They will be back, but not for a long time and not without painful structural changes to the British economy.

Really2

kennyboy66 wrote: »

Except "Happy Days" won't be here again.

Perhaps I should point out to the poster it is ponzi not fonzi.

very cruel kenny.:D

Conrad

Growth - do we really need it? Blue sky thinking tells me growth is a fantom we ought to stop chasing, and instead be happy with the wealth pool we have.

In order to keep on growing, the parasite has to keep on sucking, but the tiny sliver of Earths crust we inhabit, is sick of getting sucked (unlike my good self)

zone

People have nothing to worry about at the moment. Even if there are job losses left right and center, nobody is going hungry or on the streets.

But if things like powercuts, supermarket shelves empty or petrol shortages start to happen; i think they would be a sign of real depression. Its got to be really bad for things to get to that stage though and unlikely.. we hope.

incesticde

matbe wrote: »

So basically kick out all the foreign workers.
Make the !!!!less lazy workshy dole blodgers do the !!!!!! jobs they are fit for.

Saw an interview with John Bird (the founder of the big issue, from a family with third generation unemployed etc ) that made me pause and think.

When unemployment benefit first started, it was a safety net for those who lost their jobs. As everyone in those days wanted a job and jobs were plenty (we still had primary industries in those days) it was a very important and worthwhile thing.

However nowadays there are people who are quite happy to live of that benefit and never get a job. And the politicians are happy to let that happen... why?

If you passed a law saying people got three months benefit, and after that if you haven't found a job after that you're getting nowt, this would mobilise people into trying to find a job.

But they aren't enough jobs for all the unemployed, even if you took all the economic refugees out of the country and 'nationalised' their jobs. There would still not be enough jobs for everyone (the country doesn't have the primary industrys anymore, it doesn't have much industry full stop). These people would then lose their benefits, and after that happened they would be become very politicised, very quickly. No political party wants that.

It's easier to give them just enough to live and slowly ghetto-ise them in run down estates.

Can't say I agreed with all he said, but he had some very valid points

MrsE_2

dandy-candy wrote: »

I am sure there will be loads of you out there who can explain it better (or correct me because the internet has so many varying descriptions) but isn't this happening now?

Recession is when there is unemployment & job losses,

Depression is when its you.

Fire_Fox

incesticde wrote: »

However nowadays there are people who are quite happy to live of that benefit and never get a job. And the politicians are happy to let that happen... why?

If you passed a law saying people got three months benefit, and after that if you haven't found a job after that you're getting nowt, this would mobilise people into trying to find a job.

But they aren't enough jobs for all the unemployed, even if you took all the economic refugees out of the country and 'nationalised' their jobs. There would still not be enough jobs for everyone (the country doesn't have the primary industrys anymore, it doesn't have much industry full stop). These people would then lose their benefits, and after that happened they would be become very politicised, very quickly. No political party wants that.

It's easier to give them just enough to live and slowly ghetto-ise them in run down estates.

Not too many years ago, Cambridge had more available jobs than unemployed people and yet it had long-term unemployed. I knew individuals who would sign on for a bit then, when the started getting hassled, they'd get some labouring or bar work through an agency. Then sign back on from the beginning.

Rather than just taking away the income flow, which would hit the kids hardest, after three months the long term unemployed should be given useful work to do - public service work that would otherwise be done by volunteers. Alongside this help to write a decent CV and covering letter. For those who wanted to work it would be great experience, for the lazy ones it would be a lot of effort for little reward.

Also there needs to be a system for those who are literally between jobs. Having relocated, I had a job offer in writing and just wanted to sign on for a couple of weeks. I was still expected to apply for x number of jobs a week, yet had already written to every single health facility in the area (over 30 CVs), chased them up in person or by phone AND had records of all activities. The woman I saw when signing on had no more ideas than I did what I should be applying for, but still wanted me to apply for these phantom jobs. :rotfl:

harryhound

hederahelix wrote: »

Have a look at this, might give you a clue...

http://cynicuseconomicus.blogspot.com/2008/06/funny-view-of-wealth.html

Bit long, but worth it!

Sorry, I meant this for the personal debt thread. OOOOpps

Brilliant early post.

The interesting thing about the blogger is that he claims to have posted his manifesto in Autumn 2007 - about the time that Northern Wreck had fallen over.

Very interesting blogger - did you find the global map that purports to show where his readers are.

Is it the power of this forum or just a general comment on the way that the UK is open to new ideas, that the strongest subsection of his fan club is in the UK?