Quid to Drop Further in Value

Generali

bubblesmoney wrote: »

isnt it a bit like the uk where england financially supports scotland and wales. england doesnt have free prescriptions or less tuition fees like the other two and many drugs and treatments not available in england for free is available in scotland and wales. same goes for old age care etc. so if uk can remain an union despite these inequalities why cant the EU survive even if there are parts eating into the profits other parts of the EU make.

Politically it's easier to make a case for Londoners to support spending in Cornwall say than it is to make the case that Oslo-ists should pay the welfare bills of people in Dublin.

AHAR

Generali wrote: »

Politically it's easier to make a case for Londoners to support spending in Cornwall say than it is to make the case that Oslo-ists should pay the welfare bills of people in Dublin.

Norway aren't EU members. The UK gets a Christmas tree out of them each year though.

AHAR

iolanthe07 wrote: »

Have to stay in the UK for this year's holiday, then.

That's what I intend to do. I fancied going to Japan again this year but there'd have to be a major recovery in the exchange rate before I'd even consider it.
I was getting >230 yen/£ when I was there in Nov. '07. I see it's bombed to 125yen/£ today. Worst since 1971 I think I read somewhere. OUCH!

PolishBigSpender

michaels wrote: »

DO you think the EUR area will lose any memebers - Eire for example - can the govt afford to bail out the banks? If not will Germany really be happy to in effect support Eire Eur bonds?

Yes, they will.

If you look at what led to EMU and the Euro, it was all based upon the UK and France pushing Germany into monetary union in exchange for them consenting to the unification of Germany in 1990. Germany won't have forgotten this - and anyway, they don't really have much choice in the matter.

Germany also will realise that if they let one country fall out of the Euro, then other countries may follow. The entire EU realises that the single currency dream could be over very quickly if members are allowed to leave - and the smaller countries realise that their future prosperity also depends on the single currency.

The example of Poland at the minute, where our country is quite stable, yet our independent currency is taking a beating against the Pound and the Euro shows how important the Euro is to Europe.

The real question should be - how much punishment can the UK and the Pound take before needing to resort to ECB/IMF help? It may very well be that if (and it's a big if) the UK resorts to either source of funding, even in the short term - then Euro membership may be the precondition.

harryhound

Really2 wrote: »

I have been looking at the £ yesterday and today.

It looks like all GB as done is say to the rest of the world our banks are full of debt don't touch us.
If that is what he was trying to do it worked (or is it a cunning plan to hold off defaltion buy !!!!!!ing sterling baldric style)

c0ckup or conspiracy? yes conspiracy IMHO.

Little other option for a government needing to be re-elected BUT they are risking a downward "J" curve spiral and/or crippling interest rates.

harryhound

AHAR wrote: »

Norway aren't EU members. The UK gets a Christmas tree out of them each year though.

Here is the CIA's fun statistics site:
(You will have to scroll down a bit to get from Norway's balance of payments down to the UK's)

http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/eco_cur_acc_bal-economy-current-account-balance

When it comes to wealth per head we used to be level pegging with Hong Kong.

http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/eco_gdp_ppp_percap-economy-gdp-ppp-per-capita

harryhound

Thrugelmir wrote: »

With German Government bonds yielding over 4% and the BOE expected to cut rates further next month the reasons to buy sterling are diminishing.

In the future the UK Government are going to have to raise funds to finance their. At that point interest rates will rise and so will sterlings exchange rate.

Last time we offered 15% we did not get any takers!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/september/16/newsid_2519000/2519013.stm

AHAR

harryhound wrote: »

Here is the CIA's fun statistics site:
(You will have to scroll down a bit to get from Norway's balance of payments down to the UK's)

http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/eco_cur_acc_bal-economy-current-account-balance

When it comes to wealth per head we used to be level pegging with Hong Kong.

http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/eco_gdp_ppp_percap-economy-gdp-ppp-per-capita

Oh dear. We'd best try and negotiate some more free Christmas trees.

If you're wondering why I'm talking about Christmas trees...clicky

harryhound

The guy who says "sell sell sell" is on Radio 4 as I type this.
- What has Britain been selling to the rest of the world? Oil and financial services!
one is running out and the other is bankrupt.
- Are you selling?
- No I've got none left since last fall, its terrible economics and terrible ethics.
the government & bankers should go to jail.
You are all in the Japanese situation where nobody can trust anyone else.
- The British tax payers will be paying for this for years to come.

Obviously an intelligent man - he agrees with me:D:rotfl::D

I think he might be underestimating the British sange froid and the ability to carry on nose to the grind stone, back to the wall ,,,,,,,,, and come up with something.
As long as the country's administrators ACCEPT the situation is serious and not something that can be politically spun, but I despair that they ever will.

michaels

I find it sad that the news media run as a factual story opinion from those who almost certainly have a vested interest - perhaps there could be a message on the bottom of the screen stating something like 'this man will make 100mln for every % the GBP falls' or similar?

Not to say that there are not big structural issues for the GBP - normally a fall in a currency would push up exports and domestic supply and reduce imports however a lot of the stuff we import is extremely price inelastic (anyone for not having food as it has got more expensive?) so the gbp fall may actually worsen the imbalance in the short and even medium term.