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Debate House Prices


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  • Really2
    Really2 Posts: 12,397 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    mbga9pgf wrote: »
    No you are not, you are spouting rubbish. because if prices will double from now, housing will be even more unaffordable than it was. You cant beat market equilibrium.

    Can you stop it now you are having a rant and looking a fool.:rolleyes: (Debt does not inflate)
    Even the most hardy bear will still belive property to at least double in price over the next 25 years.
    But wages could tripple!
  • repoamuse wrote: »
    prices will not be on the way up for at least 5 years imho. It could be 10 years before we see 3 consecutive monthly price rises. (unless the figures get cooked, like the inflation figures)

    You don't think there will be a price rise in the next 5 years?
    So, are you are saying, over the next 60 months there will be no house price rise
    what-so-ever, or house prices will not be higher than they are at this current moment in the next 5 years?
  • dopester
    dopester Posts: 4,890 Forumite
    Really2 wrote: »
    One thing for sure is even if you purchased a house in summer 07 in 25 years time it will still be worth at least 2X what you purchased it for.

    Not talking up houses just stating a fact.

    You are just having your opinions formed by what has occurred over the last 60 odd years. A snip of time.

    Time over before, for centuries, house prices and land values have remained stagnant or just moved in line with general inflation and deflation. I agree the larger increase in population is another factor now, capital markets too, but ability to pay has always been important.

    There are many who would disagree with your casual conclusion... with might move in to those pyramid-city structures that house a million people if maintaining infrastructure, roads, bridges, electricity/gas supplies... proves too costly for government, UK wide, from a treasury with little money to kiss out.

    Not that I agree with this guy on everything, but I've selected him as a random counter to you. The money, what there is of it, may as others have said, go elsewhere in to something more productive, and lenders and governing bodies learn their lesson for a long time, their children and their children still educated in the fall-out and equally educated, to be scarred with it for a century or more.
    Why home values may take decades to recover.

    "We will never see these prices again in our lifetime, when you adjust for inflation," says Peter Schiff, president of investment firm Euro Pacific Capital of Darien, Conn.

    "These were lifetime peaks." The boom in home prices — fueled by heavily leveraged loans built on low or even no down payments — made it easy to forget that housing values had been remarkably stable for a half-century after World War II, rising at roughly the same pace as income and inflation. Prices soared in most of the country — especially in Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada and metro areas of Washington, D.C., and New York — during a brief period of easy lending, especially from 2002 to 2006. That era's over.
    The price plunge has wiped out trillions of dollars in home equity and caused the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. Susan Wachter, professor of real estate at the University of Pennsylvania, fears that foreclosures and tight credit could send home prices falling to the point that millions of families and thousands of banks are thrust into insolvency.
    http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2008-12-12-homeprices_N.htm
  • Really2
    Really2 Posts: 12,397 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    mbga9pgf wrote: »

    Claiming houses are anything other than a home and instead think they are an investment for capital appreciation purposes quite frankly doesnt understand the most basic tennents of economics. :rotfl:

    Go do a rent vs buy calculation. I think it may be you who is a bit economical (on brain cells) if you think renting is cheaper than buying over 25 years.
    http://money.uk.msn.com/mortgages/calculate/rent_buy_calculator.aspx

    PS I will be around £600k better of buy buying.
  • Conrad
    Conrad Posts: 33,137 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    mbga9pgf wrote: »

    Claiming houses are anything other than a home and instead think they are an investment for capital appreciation purposes quite frankly doesnt understand the most basic tennents of economics. :rotfl:


    Blimey I'll get onto Cambridge University and let them know they should'nt have bought all that rental property over the years.

    Leveredge in the right hands can produce well above par total returns.
    £30,000 into in a Bank account in 1996, against £30,000 invested in a £100,000 property will have returned the investor circa £100,000+ capital gain, plus the rent will have repaid the c£30,000 of mortgage, which then becomes a further 'free' capture for the investor.

    Cash will not have returned anything like this.

    If I buy a property now for £90000 cash I get say 20 years of rent after costs plus almost certainly capital appreciation of £90,000+. I can re - invest the rental income into cash and benfit from compound interest too.
  • Really2
    Really2 Posts: 12,397 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    dopester wrote: »
    You are just having your opinions formed by what has occurred over the last 60 odd years. A snip of time.

    Time over before, for centuries, house prices and land values have remained stagnant or just moved in line with general inflation and deflation. I agree the larger increase in population is another factor now, capital markets too, but ability to pay has always been important.There are many who would disagree with your casual conclusion... with might move in to those pyramid-city structures that house a million people if mainta

    True but recent history is the best indication of what is going to happen in the near future.
    Hundres of years ago people had no choice but to rent as affordable credit was only offered to the well off.
    If they did offer credit to the everyday man perhaps we would not have this boom bust cycle like we do now as we would have 100s of years to sort it out.:confused:
  • mbga9pgf
    mbga9pgf Posts: 3,224 Forumite
    Really2 wrote: »
    Go do a rent vs buy calculation. I think it may be you who is a bit economical (on brain cells) if you think renting is cheaper than buying over 25 years.
    http://money.uk.msn.com/mortgages/calculate/rent_buy_calculator.aspx

    Over 25 years. I have been saving since 2005, pay 430 quid for a quarter, and am currently enjoying around 3.5K decreases in the value of property and will have a 40% deposit on my home, which reduces my mortgage by 10 years. So, by waiting and renting instead of purchasing at the top of the market, I have saved a fortune in terms of my future prosperity.

    At the mo, for every 3 months savings, I am wiping another year off the mortgage. Thats before we look at depreciation of asset value. Look who looks stupid now!
    Can you stop it now you are having a rant and looking a fool.:rolleyes: (Debt does not inflate)
    Even the most hardy bear will still belive property to at least double in price over the next 25 years.
    But wages could tripple!

    Yes, and in the above stuation, house prices would be WORTH (not cost, its different) 2/3 of what they are today! Debt deosnt inflate, but unless you forgot !!!!!!, mortgages have an associated interest rate which taks care of that little fact! Or did you forget that too dear?
  • Really2
    Really2 Posts: 12,397 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    mbga9pgf wrote: »
    At the mo, for every 3 months savings, I am wiping another year off the mortgage. Thats before we look at depreciation of asset value. Look who looks stupid now!

    Great i purchased in 01 sold in 08 and put £75k down on a house in august 08 which i got 27% off april 08 prices.
    If I rented the same house it would cost me over £1100.
    I have got a lifetim BOE +.49 tracker interest payment is less than £300. Paying off £800 per month capital. sould be mortgage free in less than 15 years.

    I can guess who looks stupid (if you want to do names) but it does not look like me.
    I can do the laugh icon too.:rotfl: :rolleyes:

    Please call agin the next time you want to have an un-informed rant at someone.:rotfl:
  • Really2 wrote: »
    True but recent history is the best indication of what is going to happen in the near future.
    Hundres of years ago people had no choice but to rent as affordable credit was only offered to the well off.
    If they did offer credit to the everyday man perhaps we would not have this boom bust cycle like we do now as we would have 100s of years to sort it out.:confused:



    Or maybe going back to not having credit (or at least anything like as much), would be simpler ?
  • mbga9pgf
    mbga9pgf Posts: 3,224 Forumite
    Yeah, would have been great to have the option to buy back in 2001. But I didnt. Instead, I was priced out.

    Lets hope to doubling house prices and tripling wages hey! (idiot...)
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