Anybody Care to Predict?

1echidna

ps2659 wrote: »

I am particularly interested to hear the views of those who think the brown stuff is really going to hit the fan in 2009, although all views welcome of course.

What brown stuff do you mean Gordon ?[/quote]

Him too, although I think he may stick in the pipeline longer than people think before emerging into the fan with a splat.

barrooo

2009
House Prices -15%
Inflation <2% year end
Interest Rate 1% year end
FTSE 100 3000 year end

2010
House Prices -5%
Inflation 4% year end
Interest Rate 3% year end
FTSE 100 3400 year end

I'd probably go with these predictions, although potentially inflation could be a bit higher at the end of 2010, depending on how quickly rate cuts happen this year.
Probable 0.5%-0.75% cut today and maybe 0.5% next time

michaels

More opinions here: http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=1365319&highlight=nationwide+halifax

1echidna

Just out of interest I have averaged the individual contributions of the expertise of MSE and rounded the results:

2009
House Prices -18%
Inflation 2.4% year end
Interest Rate 1.75% year end
FTSE 100 4250 year end

2010
House Prices -2%
Inflation 5% year end
Interest Rate 3.25% year end
FTSE 100 4750 year end

Thanks to everyone for their views. I guess I will stay diversified.

RainMaker_2

2009(end)

House Prices -8%
Inflation -2.0%
BOE Base Rate 0%
FTSE 100 4600

2010(end)

House Prices +4%
Inflation 3.0%
BOE Base Rate 3%
FTSE 100 5200

1echidna

Just to bump this thread to see, about six months on, whether people would like to update their predictions.

The averages of predictions that I computed on 9th Jan were:

2009
House Prices -18%
Inflation 2.4% year end
Interest Rate 1.75% year end
FTSE 100 4250 year end

2010
House Prices -2%
Inflation 5% year end
Interest Rate 3.25% year end
FTSE 100 4750 year end

Jonbvn

Generally, I wouldn't disagree with most of the above predictions for 2009. However, I would be surprised if IR went above 1.5% before Xmas.

1echidna

Jonbvn wrote: »

Generally, I wouldn't disagree with most of the above predictions for 2009. However, I would be surprised if IR went above 1.5% before Xmas.

Yes indeed, although it has been suggested that gov'ts may have to raise interest rates to compete for money from lenders.

mbga9pgf

2009
House Prices -5% (stagnant from here to Q4)
Inflation 0% (RPI average over year)
Interest Rate 1%
FTSE 100 4300 +-100
GDP -1% YOY

2010 Election year
House Prices -15% (mainly Q3Q4)
Inflation 2% (RPI average over year)
Interest Rate 1.0%
FTSE 100 4000 +- 500
GDP -2% YOY

2011 post -election Pain
House Prices -3%
Inflation -3% (RPI average over year)
Interest Rate 3% (Market rates much higher)
FTSE 100 5000 -200/+500
GDP 0%

2012
House Prices +3%/+5% each year for next 5 years
Inflation 5% (RPI average over year)
Interest Rate 5%
FTSE 100 5500 -200/+500
GDP 1%-3% for next 5 years.

Deflation followed by Stagflation, Higher taxes, general misery and high unemployment. Cant wait.

Good news - house buying sweet spot late 2011 early 2012, although will probably be looking to buy either Feb 2010 with 15% off present market value, 30% off peak, failing that, late 2010 when people really feeling the pinch and despair has set into the housing market. Downside - Higher IR with only a 40% deposit. Need some harder haggling, although larger deposit than Feb 2010 and probably more people desperate to shift their houses.

Next down wave will be a shocker for sentiment.

1984ReturnsForReal_2

2009 stagnates for another 3-4 months

after that phase II