my view!

dboy1985

itsnever2lateisit? wrote: »

Firstly, welcome!

I think there is a fundamental change which prevents people from deciding unilaterally the price they are prepared to pay, while a house that was £270k and is now 200k might seem attractive unless you have 50k deposit, then the lender wont give two hoots that 200k is only 3 times your salary

IMHO house prices will continue to fall until such times as sufficient buyers have accumulated the required deposit, when those two conditions coincide prices will stop falling

very good point, I think moving forward however these 25% deposits will gradually come down to around 10% I think that the era of >=100% mortgages are over and this is probably a good thing. but banks do have to make money and sooner or later they will need to start lending again in order to achieve this!

chucky

mewbie wrote: »

Yes thanks, I went into a giant sulk over a heated argument which I was losing, but as no one noticed I thought I'd come back and pretend nothing had happened.

rumbled

you weren't losing - just didn't agree with the racist tone of the thread

WTF?_2

dboy1985 wrote: »

I believe that everyone has a jumping in point with regard to buying a house; I would imagine a lot of people looking at the property market in June last year would have been put off by the prices – (in my area at least) of about 270K for a 3 bedroom house, which I feel is the average family home.

I think 'jumping in points' will be revised by many in the light of current economic and market developments. People will be driven by the desire to get a cheaper property and genuine worry of losing their job and ending up in a tricky financial situation. Plus sentiment will dictate that eventually everyone will be of the belief that property is a totally busted

That said, I doubt that people will try to wait for the exact bottom of the market. First, no-one can reliably call the bottom anyway and second, there will be a point where buying a house is genuinely sensible so why wait to try to eake out a few more quid off the price?

The convetional signal for rising prices will be some sort of half-decent economic outlook. Under ordinary circumstances, that would likely be some way off.

However, I personally believe any 'recovery' is going to be triggered by skyrocketing inflation when all the barmy panic measures currently being implemented or planned eventually come home to roost.

PasturesNew

I don't think we should welcome people ... what if they turn out to think differently to us?

We couldn't take it back at that late stage could we!

:P

Welcome Mewbie!

Dan:_4

caveman38 wrote: »

Aren't future mortgages going to be assessed as 2.5 X joint income or 3.5 X single?

Although it is likely to get closer to that margin as prices continue to fall, I very much doubt it will become compulsory to all mortgage lending again.

Affordability is king.

poppy10_2

dboy1985 wrote: »

Bear in mind that each person will have what they feel to be their jumping in rate, just like some people would never consider buying a car more than £2000, some people will never consider spending less than £5000 and so on, when house prices get to the point that a lot of people are looking at them and thinking `ok, so its dropped 50k from 2007, im going to jump now`

The problem is, it's not just a case of thinking "I'll jump in now," you also need to have saved up a deposit, realistically of at least 15%, which for your house of £220k would mean £33,000. How many of your friends have that sort of money lying around?
We've got a whole generation of people that were raised to have it all, right now, without ever having to save up for anything. Just stick on on a credit card or take out a finance agreement. I also know lots of people on £50-60k, but the more of them are in debt than have any savings, and even the ones that do have savings certainly don't have anywhere near £30k.

'Pent-up demand' is nothing without the means to buy.

Running_Horse

My crystal ball is bigger than yours.

minimoocow

As well as needing a deposit you also have to consider future expectations of the market - in 2006/7 people expected the market to keep going up so it did as they kept buying. By the end of 2010 people may be in a position to buy however they will have heard about negative equity and seen repossessions prehaps of friends and family and understand the dangers of this.

Why would anyone want to buy if they think the market is going down and by simply waiting 6 months - 1 year they could save £10k, £20k or possibly more?

dboy1985

poppy10 wrote: »

The problem is, it's not just a case of thinking "I'll jump in now," you also need to have saved up a deposit, realistically of at least 15%, which for your house of £220k would mean £33,000. How many of your friends have that sort of money lying around?
We've got a whole generation of people that were raised to have it all, right now, without ever having to save up for anything. Just stick on on a credit card or take out a finance agreement. I also know lots of people on £50-60k, but the more of them are in debt than have any savings, and even the ones that do have savings certainly don't have anywhere near £30k.

'Pent-up demand' is nothing without the means to buy.

of course, my argument is on the basis that you have been saving some money for the deposit. I think its very high risk personnally to go for 100% with nothing.

as for my friends, it depends, some of them have saved their money and have 30k plus, others have spent their money and have nothing (but, oddly, none of my friends have any real debt to speak of!)

I dont think its the whole generation has been living on credit cards, but it certainly appears to be the majority, and unfortunatly the people who didnt live their lifes like this will be impacted just as much as the people who did

dboy1985

!!!!!!? wrote: »

I think 'jumping in points' will be revised by many in the light of current economic and market developments. People will be driven by the desire to get a cheaper property and genuine worry of losing their job and ending up in a tricky financial situation. Plus sentiment will dictate that eventually everyone will be of the belief that property is a totally busted

That said, I doubt that people will try to wait for the exact bottom of the market. First, no-one can reliably call the bottom anyway and second, there will be a point where buying a house is genuinely sensible so why wait to try to eake out a few more quid off the price?

The convetional signal for rising prices will be some sort of half-decent economic outlook. Under ordinary circumstances, that would likely be some way off.

However, I personally believe any 'recovery' is going to be triggered by skyrocketing inflation when all the barmy panic measures currently being implemented or planned eventually come home to roost.

alternatively, people may think damn, prices are now 35% cheaper than they were 2 years ago - lets buy

people have to live somewhere, so unless you are lucky enough to live at home or not need a mortgage you will be paying rent, or you could at this point (18 months in the future for the sake of argument) be probably paying around the same but actually owning your house...