House price predictions roundup for 2009

Cleaver

I'm going for a 14.8% drop this year.

I've just lost two games of poker with friends though, so don't put too much weight behind my judgement.

treliac

Don't have a clue really. Just went for top whack - let's get the pain over with asap and move forward to a fresh start.

treliac

mewbie wrote: »

I don't think it is appropriate for me to make a prediction as I have not studied fractional reserve banking sufficiently.

You know a lot more than me and I stuck my neck out.

LilacPixie

I think 15% average accross the board but with heavier falls in Scotland.

ShelleyC_2

I've stuck with 10-15% I have been thinking around the 15% mark for a while. Actually thinking it maybe end up than that given the free fall we seem to be aiming for

ad44downey

I see chucky voted twice for house prices to go up this year. Brilliant :rotfl:

mitchaa

LilacPixie wrote: »

I think 15% average accross the board but with heavier falls in Scotland.

Based on

Scottish properties are already about 25% cheaper than their English counterparts.

I believe the average price of a home in Scotland is around £130k compared with around £175k south of the border line.

No difference in salaries or employment rates so what are you basing your theory on?

I thought buying a house was all about affordability;)

I'll vote for 10% down, well actually 9.9% to get me into that category

whathavewedone

I've gone for 10-15%, thinking it will be nearer 15% than 10% though. I think some properties will fall harder than others - flats, new builds and ex council properties in particular.

My house will obviously hold it's value though.

themanbearpig

17.5% on average, based on the derivatives market predictions, which is based on staking real money on the situation regardless of whether its good or not for the people with invested interests. So the predictions are less bothered about appearing too bearish, or worried about lowering market expectations.
When companies with invested interests in the market start predicting falls of 10%+ you know its going to be bad, because the entire market is based purely on confidence (ie, "cant lose with bricks and mortar", "prices only go up"), so to reduce confidence by predicting any fall is definitely not in their interest.
When RICS and propertyfinder predict 10%, I enterpret this to mean they realise the masses are aware of the falling prices, so want to reassure them with a relatively palatable fall, instead of being realistic, giving people confidence to buy now without worrying about prices falling to much futher...