2009...More price falls and less lending !

luvpump

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/4043473/UK-house-prices-will-not-be-leaping-ahead-for-many-years-to-come.html

"Standard & Poor's said that with houses in the UK still overvalued, prices will have to fall by a further 20pc, taking the total decline to almost 35pc" :beer:

Kenny4315

Sounds about right. About a 1/3 in total.

ad44downey

luvpump wrote: »

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"Standard & Poor's said that with houses in the UK still overvalued, prices will have to fall by a further 20pc, taking the total decline to almost 35pc" :beer:

And some more. They'd still be grossly overvalued at that level.

bluejake

'these predictions increasingly looking like middle-of-the-road assessments'

I thought those people predicting 40 and 50% falls were over the top but now I think it certainly looks more possible. I was listening to Radio 4's Moneybox the other day and two of the experts were talking seriously of 50% falls.

mitchaa

ad44downey wrote: »

And some more. They'd still be grossly overvalued at that level.

One would beg to differ.

drbeat

Regardless of our differences in opinion, I imagine that we're all quite keen to see what 2009 will bring.

zarazara

aGood News for a change! lets hope the drops even bigger then my adult children, and those of my friends, will be either able to buy a place of their own or pay less rent.

besonders1

I would agree that houses are grossly over-valued even at 35% off. Where I live in the North east, a FTBs house is now the same price (around 100k) as a flat and even some family 3 bedroom homes. I think FTB's houses will be the first to fall in value as I would rather buy a 3 bed family home instead of a shoe box for the same price. In the past a flat was alway cheaper than a small house and a family house was always worth more than a FTB's house but every seller seem to think that their home is worth the same as everyone else's.

markelock

the problem will be if we haven't learnt the lesson this time round.

otherwise house prices will fall. something will kick in, whether it be lenders, or borrowers, and they'll start to rise again.

i'll lose money (or go into negative equity) but in the long term it will all balance itself out.

prices now are silly, and as has been proven, completely unsustainable.

mitchaa

besonders1 wrote: »

I would agree that houses are grossly over-valued even at 35% off. Where I live in the North east, a FTBs house is now the same price (around 100k) as a flat and even some family 3 bedroom homes. I think FTB's houses will be the first to fall in value as I would rather buy a 3 bed family home instead of a shoe box for the same price. In the past a flat was alway cheaper than a small house and a family house was always worth more than a FTB's house but every seller seem to think that their home is worth the same as everyone else's.

Not quite sure i understand your logic there??

FTB house is a shoebox? (So a studio flat?)
Next time buyers house, so 2nd step on the ladder is a flat/apartment?
Next step up is a family home? 3bed semi detached?

So 3 steps to get to the family home? I assume you relate a family home as being that of the average home? Currently at around £158-162k according to Nationwide/Halifax.

If 1 bed studios are selling for £100k and 3bed family homes are selling for the same £100k, then surely no-one is going to buy the 1bed shoeboxes?

If you think £76k for a 3bed family home is grossly over valued (£100k now, dropped 15% already, predicted drop of 35% = £76k ish) then how much would you state 3bed family homes should sell for?

Average income families can afford £150k mortgages no probs at the moment so should these average families after this 35% or more crash, be able to buy 2 or even 3 of these cut price homes?

Logic doesn't add up.

House prices are affordable at prices ITRO of £140k or so, we are not too far off that just now at £158-162k, there may be a little undershoot, perhaps down to £130-135k, but i think people are dreaming if they expect them at under £100k, and on cloud Ku Ku if they think they'll drop below £75k

besonders1

mitchaa wrote: »

House prices are affordable at prices ITRO of £140k or so, we are not too far off that just now at £158-162k, there may be a little undershoot, perhaps down to £130-135k, but i think people are dreaming if they expect them at under £100k, and on cloud Ku Ku if they think they'll drop below £75k

You might be talking about London where I would agree with your post 100% whereas in the north which consists of mainly deprived areas with high unemployment, prices of averages home in the year 2000 (mid terrace ex-council homes) were rarely above 100K unless it was a very affluent area although that has changed recently.