Man Made Global Warming - yet another opinion

cepheus

Most evidence is in the past temperature record and the inherent process by which greenhouse gases absorb long wave radiation as Stephen says. It would indeed be a mystery if the earth wasn't heating up.

Models merely put figures on the increase based on various scenario's. A calculation back in the 70s by the 'Jason's' (which couldn't have included complex modelling) estimated the rate of temperature rise would be approximately what is has been since then, and that the temperature rise at the poles would be greater than the equator, a remarkable achievement.

Greenhouse gas warming was taught as factual in the 80s when I studied this as a student, before most of the recent temperature rise had actually occurred. Only a right wing PR campaign feeding on scientific illiteracy of the populace has ignited any 'debate'.

moonrakerz

1. Why are the other planets in the Solar system heating up as well ? Even those without CO2 in their atmosphere.

2. According to the man-made global warming lobby : (Actually heard this one on the radio !)

When the temperature increases it is due to man-made global warming - better known as "climate change".
When the temperature falls it is due to "vagaries of the weather"

cepheus

1. Why are the other planets in the Solar system heating up as well ? Even those without CO2 in their atmosphere.

1) There have been claims that warming on Mars and Pluto are proof that the recent warming on Earth is caused by an increase in solar activity, and not by greenhouse gases. But we can say with certainty that, even if Mars, Pluto or any other planets have warmed in recent years, it is not due to changes in solar activity.

The Sun's energy output has not increased since direct measurements began in 1978 (see Climate myth special: Global warming is down to the Sun, not humans). If increased solar output really was responsible, we should be seeing warming on all the planets and their moons, not just Mars and Pluto

See climate myths

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11642

2. According to the man-made global warming lobby : (Actually heard this one on the radio !)

When the temperature increases it is due to man-made global warming - better known as "climate change".
When the temperature falls it is due to "vagaries of the weather

2) not true, genuine scientists are reluctant to ascribe extreme events to global warming, whilst the carbon lobby always whine every time there happens to be a cold spell in one part of the world. Look at the long term temperature trend of the entire planet not individual events

thescouselander

cepheus wrote: »

1) see climate myths

There have been claims that warming on Mars and Pluto are proof that the recent warming on Earth is caused by an increase in solar activity, and not by greenhouse gases. But we can say with certainty that, even if Mars, Pluto or any other planets have warmed in recent years, it is not due to changes in solar activity.
The Sun's energy output has not increased since direct measurements began in 1978 (see Climate myth special: Global warming is down to the Sun, not humans). If increased solar output really was responsible, we should be seeing warming on all the planets and their moons, not just Mars and Pluto

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11642

2) not true, genuine scientists are reluctant to ascribe extreme events to global warming, whilst the carbon lobby always whine every time there happens to be a cold spell in one part of the world. Look at the long term trend of the entire planet not individual events

Yes but it is a fact that Mars has warmed up at something like the same rate as earth and at the same time. As far as I know there has been no satisfactory explanation as to why this has happened therefore how can we say for certain that there is not some common cause of warming on both planets.

A_fiend_for_life

thescouselander wrote: »

Yes but it is a fact that Mars has warmed up at something like the same rate as earth and at the same time. As far as I know there has been no satisfactory explanation as to why this has happened therefore how can we say for certain that there is not some common cause of warming on both planets.

How long has this been happening for?


I presume:

There is a suitable duration of data for comparing Earth and Mars.

This data was measured directly rather than inferred from proxies that were plugged into models.

Since there is no global warming on Earth due to man there is a strong relationship between temperatures on Earth and Mars.

An inverse square relationship and the historical distance and orbit control for, and should strengthen the relationship between Earth and Martian (historical) temperatures.



There is, therefore, a graph showing that Mars and Earth are warming at comparable rates.

kaya

I can't see why people choose to believe as gospel the mumblings of people who cannot yet tell me what the weather will be like a week on tuesday!!

cepheus

There are plenty of alternative explanations because the atmospheres of the two planets are so different. Remember Mars has an atmosphere only one hundredth of the pressure of the Earths at ground level, and undergoes periodic dust storms. This has a much larger effect since dust can blanket the entire planet in dark solar absorbing material

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/04/070404-mars-warming.html

cepheus

kaya wrote: »

I can't see why people choose to believe as gospel the mumblings of people who cannot yet tell me what the weather will be like a week on tuesday!!

Thanks for giving me a good laugh, would you rather believe the PR ramblings of the carbon lobby than genuine scientists? Weather is about short term changes, climate is about longer trends and the evidence is unambiguous. It's like saying meteorologists can't tell you it's going to be warmer when the summer comes. Of course they can, look at the historic evidence or the fundamental reasons what cause it.

A_fiend_for_life

kaya wrote: »

I can't see why people choose to believe as gospel the mumblings of people who cannot yet tell me what the weather will be like a week on tuesday!!

Bit like a football commentator can tell you what the general position of teams will be at the end of the season but not who will actually win a particular game.

moonrakerz

cepheus wrote: »

1) But we can say with certainty that, even if Mars, Pluto or any other planets have warmed in recent years, it is not due to changes in solar activity.

Same old half truths from the man-made lobby ! The other planets are warming (just as the earth is) - FACT - but they have to say "even if".

In fact same old untruths as well, I quote something I heard on the radio the other day, from a "believer" - and now I am told

cepheus wrote: »

not true

by another "believer" !

I'm not sure if it was the statement that was not true - wouldn't think so, if it was said by a true "believer".(Especially on Radio 4 too !)
Therefore it must be not true that I heard it on the radio - usual "believer" tactic - if you can't win the argument by fair means - resort to foul !