Aberdeen/shire house prices

donaldtramp

Take a look at this report for only one FPSO.
http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_inte...hiehallion.pdf

If you read it they started in 1998 with an estimated 600 million barrels between the Schiehallion, Foinaven and Loyal fields, which they demonstrated well rates of up to 20,000 barrels per day

Simple mathematics would show 600,000,000 divided by 20,000 = 30,000 days or 82 years.
That's not considering downtime.

That was a well test for ONE WELL in 1994!! Do you seriously believe it is still producing the same amount? Yup, simple mathematics. What about all the fields that are dying/have died? The UK production curve I posted is for the ENTIRE UK sector, not one well on one field!!!!

Secondly, you keep harping on about Aberdeen and how it relies on the North Sea. We keep telling you my friend that Aberdeen is the global hub and supports projects throughout the world.

You keep believing what you are thinking. That's the problem. Still a global hub in 10 -20 years??? No way.

We also offer that Aberdeen is diversifying into other energy sectors, which you continue to neglect.

Show me a concrete "other energy sector" development that consists of more than a handful of jobs.:rotfl:
Political whitewash and you're falling for it.

Finally, the majority of offshore oil workers is a fraction of the residents of Aberdeen/shire. Many commute from thorughout the UK

Take a look at this report showing Aberdeen/shire as a popoulation of 440,000 and only 41,000 employed in oil and gas (less than 10%)

http://www.aberdeencityandshire.com/...s_Business.asp

Yup, 41,000 but they are the ones who bring the cash into Aberdeen and support a great deal of the other jobs.
Demographics can be a wee bit misleading. 440K residents yes. But when considering populations, it is generally accepted that 1/3 of population will be under 18/students (non working) and 1/3 retired (non working). Out of the remaining third up to a quarter of them are supported by the state.
That takes your grand figure of 440K down to 146 thousand working population? (1/3 of entire population)
Does that still look as good with 41,000 people of working age employed in the Oil industry? Approximately 1/3 to 1/4 of the working population.
Statistics are a funny thing eh?

And at this current oil price, lay offs are going to be massive this year. What do you think that's going to do to the house prices?

Novazombie, think you're right. Some people are just going to have to learn the hard way! There's nothing like rose tinted specs eh?

b0rker

novazombie wrote: »

Your the one who needs to read and understand whats going on.

It never ceases to amaze me, that there are still people out there who dont know whats going on.

This is the reason the crisis will take longer. The sooner prices come back to what they should be the sooner recovery can start.

Please keep your 50%/60% drop predictions for UK average threads. This is a city/county specific thread. There are people posting on it who know a great deal about the economy of this local market and are not just mad bears who are trying to tear down the average UK house price to meet their own wants and needs.

donaldtramp

So much for the golf course developments then....

High Price home sites fail to find ANY buyers

http://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/Article.aspx/1106434/

donaldtramp

Rig rates dropping...

http://energy.pressandjournal.co.uk/Article.aspx/1093344

The rigs are starting to line up in Invergordon and that means far less drilling= less money in Aberdeen.

b0rker

donaldtramp wrote: »

Rig rates dropping...

http://energy.pressandjournal.co.uk/Article.aspx/1093344

The rigs are starting to line up in Invergordon and that means far less drilling= less money in Aberdeen.

I don't know much about the oil industry but my job does take me up both sides of the Cromaty firth regularly and yes indeed there are a LOT of oil rigs in InverG at the moment. Seriously noticeable from Cromarty etc.

They must be cutting back extraction big time.

mitchaa

donaldtramp wrote: »

Rig rates dropping...

http://energy.pressandjournal.co.uk/Article.aspx/1093344

The rigs are starting to line up in Invergordon and that means far less drilling= less money in Aberdeen.

I have noticed a decrease in the number of advertised jobs in the O&G sector the last couple of months. I do agree with you things are slowing down, but my company as an example are still paying £7k fortnights for offshore work so money is still readily flowing...

http://www.aviationjobsearch.com/jobs/licensed_maintenance_base/aberdeenshire/licensed_b1_engineer_with_as_332-37099.html

Contract work yes, but there is good money to be made in Abz on and offshore

donaldtramp

I don't know much about the oil industry but my job does take me up both sides of the Cromaty firth regularly and yes indeed there are a LOT of oil rigs in InverG at the moment. Seriously noticeable from Cromarty etc.

They must be cutting back extraction big time.

I know they are. There are several operators who have ceased drilling ops.

I have noticed a decrease in the number of advertised jobs in the O&G sector the last couple of months, i agree with you things are slowing down, but my company are still paying £7k fortnights for offshore work so money is still readily flowing;)

Yup there is a definate decrease in jobs advertised and I personally know a good few guys, who up until very recently were commanding day rates a lot higher than 500 quid a day, are now at home sitting on their hands.
Meantime, the big mortgage/flash car/bills keep leaving the bank.
That's the risk if you go contracting.
Cushy number right up till the point you are told to "finish up on Friday". Or even the same day as has happened to a couple of guys I know.

dopester

mitchaa wrote: »

I have noticed a decrease in the number of advertised jobs in the O&G sector the last couple of months. I do agree with you things are slowing down, but my company as an example are still paying £7k fortnights for offshore work so money is still readily flowing...

You're alright mitchaa in my book. I'm only a bit saddened that you defend all the excesses of the credit-expansion, reckless lending and borrowing, BTL fever of the last 8 years+, with all the two income salaries stuff - when if things had been different, you'd probably be in a much better position - as I wish it had been for you, now everything is unravelling.

Highly qualified expert in your field.. skilled and a real earner, compared to so many in jobs of all types, like in finance, which relied on property forever booming upwards in price, or on Labour's easy payroll.

Had things been different over the last 8 years or so, more sensible, you should be living in one of the finer and central Aberdeen properties, all done comfortably on one income with a lot left over to spend or invest for yourself and your own family.

mitchaa

dopester wrote: »

You're alright mitchaa in my book. I'm only a bit saddened that you defend all the excesses of the credit-expansion, reckless lending and borrowing, BTL fever of the last 8 years+, with all the two income salaries stuff - when if things had been different, you'd probably be in a much better position - as I wish it had been for you, now everything is unravelling.

Highly qualified expert in your field.. skilled and a real earner, compared to so many in jobs of all types, like in finance, which relied on property forever booming upwards in price, or on Labour's easy payroll.

Had things been different over the last 8 years or so, more sensible, you should be living in one of the finer and central Aberdeen properties, all done comfortably on one income with a lot left over to spend or invest for yourself and your own family.

I am slowly beginning to understand you Dopester, at first i thought you were a mad raving lunatic but the more i read your responses the more i see where you are coming from and the points you are trying to get across.

I do actually think that there is a high possibility that the average salary in the UK will drop this year, 3 mths ago i was having none of it but as things unravel, well...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/4684057/Millions-face-pay-freeze-as-inflation-hits-50-year-low.html

I still can't get my head around 50%+ drops in the housing market though;)

donaldtramp

Mitch,
I'm with you. I can't see this 50% drop that a lot of people are throwing about. I also think that salaries will drop.

Dopester,

Highly qualified expert in your field.. skilled and a real earner, compared to so many in jobs of all types, like in finance, which relied on property forever booming upwards in price, or on Labour's easy payroll.

I think you've nailed it on the head. As an engineer, I'm also !!!!!! off that Labour's easy payroll has robbed us out of a nice lifestyle(that I work hard for!). The boom in public sector jobs has robbed and strangled the middle man. They are guaranteed nice easy jobs (with a bulletproof final salary pension:mad: ) at OUR expense. Labour have also bowing down to the financial sector.
It would seem to me that the people in the middle have been squeezed by labour to allow the top end to get away with whatever they wish and benefts to be a lifestyle choice for the dodgers at the bottom. It absolutely sickens me.
Every time I hear Brown repeating this "fair society" nonsense I want to put a brick through the TV. In his mind "fair society" has meant stopping people getting ahead by taxing them to the hilt, to pay for either end of the spectrum(robbers and dodgers).