What is going to happen to BOE Base Rate in Jan 2009

Gorgeous_George

Down 0.5% I guess.

I must confess that I have no idea why as I think that it isn't going to make any difference. I would prefer the pound to be stronger - my holiday beer was expensive this year.

GG

steadysaver

I can see a rate cut of between 0.5 and 1% coming I am afraid. As someone with no mortgage and plenty of savings its not going the way I hoped. On the other hand, the interest payable on my student loan is falling too.

Luckly I fixed a good portion of my savings at 6% plus but that will be finished by the end of 2009. Hopefully interest rates will start to head north by then, unless they stick around the 1% mark like Japan has for the next decade.

I was annoyed at first but I have come to accept it and will let things play out as they do. As I see it, there is nothing I can do to affect what is going on, until Brown has the guts to call a general election that is.

ManAtHome

Interesting times - I reckon a political cut, even though November CPI didn't drop as much as expected and core CPI (CPI without food, booze, fags, and energy) actually edged up...

overlander

If real world economics were applied it would go up to save the pound. But hey we are still in gordonomics so down 1% by March.

zarazara

Down Down Deeper and Down.

Generali

pickles110564 wrote: »

Which way will they jump in Jan, hopefully they will move up again as these downward jumps dont seem to be making any difference.

Probably another cut given these retail blow ups.

I suspect that we'll see rising Gilt yields (and presumably base rates) by the end of 2009 though.

Cat695

pickles110564 wrote: »

Which way will they jump in Jan, hopefully they will move up again as these downward jumps dont seem to be making any difference.

didn't help japan so why would it help us putting them up??

steadysaver

Generali wrote: »

Probably another cut given these retail blow ups.

I suspect that we'll see rising Gilt yields (and presumably base rates) by the end of 2009 though.

Would you see it to be a significant rise, or a slow played out affair of 0.25% every other month by the end of 2009?

I am not convinced inflation will take off, but who knows, if the pound devalues further, and commodities like oil take off again it could all change..... everything is so up in the air at the moment. What way do you see (de/in)flation going?

Generali

steadysaver wrote: »

Would you see it to be a significant rise, or a slow played out affair of 0.25% every other month by the end of 2009?

I am not convinced inflation will take off, but who knows, if the pound devalues further, and commodities like oil take off again it could all change..... everything is so up in the air at the moment. What way do you see (de/in)flation going?

TBH I have no idea. Printing money puts an unpredictable element into the situation as we have no real way of knowing how the velocity of circulation is being impacted by the banks stopping lending.

If nothing else, Gilt yields should start to rise as countries want to borrow such vast sums of money and they'll be competing to borrow it. If they're printing the money instead then investors will insist on higher yields to compensate them for the belief that they'll be repaid with devalued money.

Either way it points to higher rates.

steadysaver

Generali wrote: »

TBH I have no idea. Printing money puts an unpredictable element into the situation as we have no real way of knowing how the velocity of circulation is being impacted by the banks stopping lending.

If nothing else, Gilt yields should start to rise as countries want to borrow such vast sums of money and they'll be competing to borrow it. If they're printing the money instead then investors will insist on higher yields to compensate them for the belief that they'll be repaid with devalued money.

Either way it points to higher rates.

Bumhats!!! If you don't know we are all well and truely bu**ered