Printing Money

tradetime

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Sabretooth,
I appreciate the graphs, but please make sure they don't make the webpage go into horizontal scrolling.
It's such bad web page design.

I notice on imageshack, there is an option for a link to forums based pictures to help in this matter

Sorry dude, my bad, I did scale them down, to 70% and check them before posting (mine doesn't scroll horizontally) but I guess I must be using much higher screen res than you

bubblesmoney

i generally invest in things i understand and am comfortable with. could invest in agricultural commodities as i will have access to decent advice from experts but not interested as i know that that field has a lot of scope of hanky panky. not interested in getting more gold as too illiquid even though have a bit (safely tucked away in a locker. dont ask me why but from where i come from it is the done thing to buy and hoard gold for the bad days. it is a cultural thing. never could understand it. and the family looks down upon even me thinking on selling it so am stuck with keeping it in the locker for the 'bad days') but it is a dead investment as no returns other than capital appreciation or depreciation. dont understand oil futures etc so will keep away. uk shares seem too risky now atleast even though we have some in rbs:eek: .

did think of entering the indian share last year but was expecting a crash hence didnt enter. thank god i didnt because the index sensex was about 20,000 then i think. thought would surely enter if it fell to 5000 which was the value i think around 2002. the sensex did fall to mid 7000s which is a huge crash but then rallied to 9000+. expecting it to fall back agin when the global recession really kicks in and affects india properly. then if it falls to about 6000 might enetr and buy some well capitalised companies with good PE ratio and comfortable fundamentals. am not into technicals because i think it is !!!! and just gambling. would rather buy fundamentally sound shares if the price is right. even if 1-2 of the max 10 companies i plan on investing in do well then should hopefull be in decent profit. atleast thats the plan anyway for now.

since there have been discussions of quantitative easing. i wonder if the same concept can be applied for individuals as well. is it legal to get unsecured loans(just wondering and might not do it) in uk but invest the money in shares abroad or even in banks abroad if the interest rate works outs. i know there is a risk of currency fluctuations. any advice from experts here on currency trends with respect to the pound and indian rupee. 1£ was almost equal to 92 rupees in the last year i think but now hovering around 74.

property is too overheated in india i feel and dont want to enter now and waiting for a crash. but not disposing of what i have already as even if it crashes i hope to be in profit as have had almost 30 times appreciation in little over a decade atleast notionally as havent got rid of the property but holding on even if it looks like a crash is imminent. i missed the boat on other property investment options a couple of years ago as was thinking of buying here then but didnt end up buying here then and missed the boat in india as well. what the heck atleast have the other prooperty that appreciated 30times anyway. didnt buy it for appreciation and was thinking of building something on the land a decade ago and just held on to the land since then. hope it doesnt get encroached as that is a problem there.

tradetime

bubblesmoney wrote: »

i generally invest in things i understand and am comfortable with.

That's Warren Buffets philosophy, so not a bad one to follow

bubblesmoney wrote: »

did think of entering the indian share last year but was expecting a crash hence didnt enter. thank god i didnt because the index sensex was about 20,000 then i think. thought would surely enter if it fell to 5000 which was the value i think around 2002. the sensex did fall to mid 7000s which is a huge crash but then rallied to 9000+. expecting it to fall back agin when the global recession really kicks in and affects india properly. then if it falls to about 6000 might enetr and buy some well capitalised companies with good PE ratio and comfortable fundamentals.

India on my radar as well, but recent events make me more cautious of that one.

bubblesmoney wrote: »

since there have been discussions of quantitative easing. i wonder if the same concept can be applied for individuals as well. is it legal to get unsecured loans(just wondering and might not do it) in uk but invest the money in shares abroad or even in banks abroad if the interest rate works outs. i know there is a risk of currency fluctuations. any advice from experts here on currency trends with respect to the pound and indian rupee. 1£ was almost equal to 92 rupees in the last year i think but now hovering around 74..

A margin account allows you to borrow, but if you were buying individual Indian companies, unless they traded as ADR's (or whatever the equivalent is on other exchanges) on a western exchange, then I don't know of any brokers that will give you access to the Indian exchanges. Currency wise I have no ideas, I don't do currencies other than short term trades.

bubblesmoney

tradetime wrote: »

That's Warren Buffets philosophy, so not a bad one to follow

India on my radar as well, but recent events make me more cautious of that one.
A margin account allows you to borrow, but if you were buying individual Indian companies, unless they traded as ADR's on a western exchange, then I don't know of any brokers that will give you access to the Indian exchanges. Currency wise I have no ideas, I don't do currencies other than short term trades.

whats a margin account and what are the charges like. i am not planning on buying ADRs, i am planning on buying there directly, did get the reserve bank of india permission required for investing in the local share market there (as am originally from there). dont know if the same is possible for other foreigners as well but foreign institutional investors do buy and sell a lot in india. even though got the rbi permission and opened a trading account, i didnt invest and just paid the charges (not much in pounds anyway), had a feeling that there would be a crash and didnt invest and was bloody right as the index crashed from about 20,000 to about 7000 i think then rallied to 9000+. waiting for a further crash then will think of jumping in. prefer shares to property as more liquid and can manage online from uk. i mainly plan on buying and holding for a few years. dont plan on buying selling and making profit loss on margins etc.

have quite a few in my family who do that and hopefully will get a bit of advice but i am cautious as know people (indirectly)who lost a million pounds while playing the forward markets in india. someone closely related as well lost well above 100,000 $ playing in usa shares but they dont seem to be bothered much as they indulge in shares regularly unlike me. i cant handle losses like that so just plan on buying fundamentally strong companies. have friends who have been buying like this for well over 10y (without IFA advise etc!!!) in indian shares and getting returns of 30% annually on an average over a 10y period until last year!!! havent asked how they fared this year but guess they would have offloaded quite a bit (hopefully). my mum has been dabbling in this for a decade and has done ok from what she tells me, dont know the actual position as i dont meddle in her finances even though if things turn bad for me she will surely back me up without a doubt. if i had listened to her and made property investments as she wanted then could probably have retired by now!!! no use crying over spilt milk as was trying to make do on my own and have done ok i guess financially.

EDIT:

regarding ur concerns about recent developments, i personally wouldnt worry about it (with the long term in mind0. india has been affected by terrorism for nearly 2 decades now but things have still vastly improved on the economy front. advantages the way i see it are - 1.2 billion population (could be a disadvantage as well) but this will be a good market for consumer companies, economies of scale do matter. infrastructure is slowly developing. in comparison to china, india is not in a population timebomb as chinas population is age heavy due to the one child policy while the majority of indian population is below 25y so things should be ok for a few decades at least. services sector has taken off, especially outsourcing etc, software industry has been doing well as they are mainly into bread and butter software rather than highend consulting that has been affected badly elsewhere, think there is an ok supply of raw materials except oil. transport networks are improving. so i wouldnt have much concerns investing there probably because i am from there. but i do undertsand that for the outsider high profile events like happened in mumbai matter a lot in making financial decisions. i feel that event will have mainly short term effects (hopefully). also the country has always been a democracy except for 1.5y over the last 61y since independence which cant be said for most other developing markets. so am bullish (inspite of the negative points) about the market there and will enter when the price is right for me

sabretoothtigger

The advantage to the bleak outlook for our own market it is more reasonable to look abroad for growth

The returns in india have been amazing in the past, while it is risky they also have some incredible gdp growth of 20% I think I read and also high interest rates to go with it.

If you buy into the market over 2 or 3 years with regular payments it would give a much better chance of getting a reasonable starting point for long term growth I think.
Ive even seen a tracker but really I dont have a great general feel for their prospects just a belief in the fundamentals vs china and japan as mentioned above.
People are what make money grow both as producers and consumers

The alternative is to invest in ftse companies with exposure to developing markets ,with a weak pound as an advantage any growth overseas should be a big plus I think



'Mibor' 9.3%
http://www.nse-india.com/marketinfo/eod_information/bidbor.jsp

bubblesmoney

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

The advantage to the bleak outlook for our own market it is more reasonable to look abroad for growth

The returns in india have been amazing in the past, while it is risky they also have some incredible gdp growth of 20% I think I read and also high interest rates to go with it.

If you buy into the market over 2 or 3 years with regular payments it would give a much better chance of getting a reasonable starting point for long term growth I think.
Ive even seen a tracker but really I dont have a great general feel for their prospects just a belief in the fundamentals vs china and japan as mentioned above.
People are what make money grow both as producers and consumers

The alternative is to invest in ftse companies with exposure to developing markets ,with a weak pound as an advantage any growth overseas should be a big plus I think



'Mibor' 9.3%
http://www.nse-india.com/marketinfo/eod_information/bidbor.jsp

think the gdp growth was around 8-9% and not 20% and has dropped now i think to around 7%. lower than china but still good all the same. i dont know the chinese market and i usually dont invest in things i dont know, usually atleast.

sabretoothtigger

Ok I will have to try and fish out a comparison chart for that, my memory is iffy and it does sound unbelievable (maybe that was before inflation adjustments )


Looking at those bond charts is pretty incredible as they are normally boring with low returns?
A large never before seen spike in the price says to me that a fall is increasingly likely, simplistic I know but sometimes markets are plus it would match what peter schiff warns of, etc




http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(real)_growth_rate_per_capita

bubblesmoney

about bonds i do know that a lot of big indian banks with multinational presence were moving more into bonds and getting out of shares in recent years as they were expecting a crash. happen to know thru contacts. dont know their present positions though.

bubblesmoney

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Ok I will have to try and fish out a comparison chart for that, my memory is iffy and it does sound unbelievable (maybe that was before inflation adjustments )


Looking at those bond charts is pretty incredible as they are normally boring with low returns?
A large never before seen spike in the price says to me that a fall is increasingly likely, simplistic I know but sometimes markets are plus it would match what peter schiff warns of, etc


Just behind Japan for gdp apparently though obviously with more people

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(real)_growth_rate_per_capita

just the percentages are misleading i feel. the size of the economy matters as well. for example a small country with a high growth rate can get screwed fast if things change fast as happened to iceland which had 3.9% in 2005 but up shitscreek now.

harryhound

Interesting map.
I would think this was created when the oil price was king, judging by the number of countries (such as Angola) enjoying booming economic "growth".

(Thinks: An increase from one dollar a day to 1.50 in wages is a 50% growth rate)

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/country_profiles/1063073.stm