'2008 annus horribilis.' blog discussion

This is the discussion to link on the back of Martin's blog. Please read the blog first, as this discussion follows it.

Read Martin's '2008 annus horribilis' Blog.

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Comments

  • bunking_off
    bunking_off Posts: 1,264 Forumite
    I'll get the ball rolling.

    2009 will be a lot worse. Not necessarily because things are any worse than this time last year (although they are), but because sentiment feeds (in)action feeds sentiment in a downward spiral. Everyone's worried about redundancy or if they retain their job, the threat of inevitable tax hikes in a year or two. So we limit our spending. Which stifles demand and causes redundancies. Which leaves those still with a job even more worried. Which stifles demand. I could go on.

    This time last year, the "machine" hadn't wound itself up properly. It has now.
    I really must stop loafing and get back to work...
  • Airwolf1
    Airwolf1 Posts: 1,266 Forumite
    First Anniversary Combo Breaker First Post
    2009 will probably be worse, house prices will fall at probably an equivalent level to this year, and look at all the job losses that are happening. It'll get worse before it gets better unfortunately.
    My suggestion and/or advice is my own and it is up to you if you follow it, please check the advice given before acting on it.
  • Wait until job losses feed through from all the businesses which are about to fold then add to that everyone who could only make their current repayments by borrowing more but can't get another loan.
    Probably the only good thing is the way the pound has plummeted in value but we don't have much left by way of manufacturing businesses & what are the chances they can survive long enough to take advantage of the improved export prospects this will bring. Even assuming there's anyone left out there who's not as deep in the doo doo as the rest of us & interested in importing anything.

    Buy tinned food, head for the hills & be ready for the economic tsunami that will hit around easter time.

    Merry xmas and a happy new year.
  • 2009 is going to bring the realisation that none of our politicians have the capability to steer us through what is going on. The markets realised this about the UK some months ago and the flight from sterling is just going to make things more difficult to deal with.

    If we still had a significant manufacturing base, we would be exporting goods and on the road to recovery at home.

    What are the major items produced in the UK now?


    Top of the list must be regulation.
    Did any of us vote for the level of regulation we now have?

    Does regulation add any value?

    Are we content that so much public funding is taken up with constructing and enforcing regulations?

    Does anyone have any idea how much regulation is stifling enterprise? or how vulnerable businesses are to the cost of regulation when market conditions change?

    Next down the list is the finance industry.
    Our economy seems to be based on the fantasy of ever growing value in property and the cashing of that value.

    Our government encourages us in that lunacy.

    When Angela Merrkel tries to explain that 80% of Gerrmans rent their homes and their economy is based on production of real things, our Prime Minister feels obliged to point out the rest of the world is following him and he has saved the world. Is there anyone who isn't ashamed to be represented by such an incompetent megalomaniac?

    Way down the list are real things like goods we really need and food. Well perhaps some of you should be going for a walk on Welsh mountains in the spring. I remember when the sward (grass) was short and nutricious on Plynlimon in Mid Wales. It was a pleasure to walk up the mountain. Last summer the vegetation was waist high and valueless. I counted about a dozen sheep on more than a thousand acres as I struggled to progress each step. The breeding stock is gone, the people with the skills to work the landscape have finished and won't return. No wonder food is becoming more expensive and set to become more so as sterling buys less around the world and the cost of regulation at home causes more and more to give up the struggle.

    One of the few hopeful signs for 2009 is the lack of credit might deter those intent on covering our landscape with wind machines. Even though these are more efficient off shore, there are still financial inducements to destroy the countryside. With any luck the necessary finance won't be available.

    Good luck to you all, but please don't head for the hills as suggested by a previous responder. There really will not be a welcome for you unless you have something necessary to contribute.
  • CFC
    CFC Posts: 3,119 Forumite
    2009 is going to be very bad, much worse than 2008. Retail companies folding at the biggest trading time of the year? Just wait till we get into Jan and Feb.

    Unemployment will rise, house prices will be the least of the problems that people face, redundancies will hit in areas which people thought were safe, there's going to be doom and gloom everywhere.

    Another bank will either fold or the government will need to bale it out.

    The only people who will benefit are those who got us into this mess in the first place, voters will 'panic support' Brown. The bankers and FSA governers will walk away with large pay off cheques underwritten by Gordon Brown.

    Gordon Brown will take that panic effect as a vote of confidence in him and his policies and continue down the same path, blithely unaware that far from saving the world, Tony, Gordon and their cronies have shipwrecked the UK economy on the rocks of poor leadership, excessive government spending, overt and direct encouragement of the UK as a financial sector rather than a service or production economy, lack of oversight of the FSA and the old boys network that meant that the banks were able to get away with foolhardy behaviour and buying junk bonds.

    State regulation and unnecessary spending will rise massively as Brown continues his path, which will feed through into higher taxes on those who still have a job this time next year. Sorry there's no gold left in the reserves to shore the currency up, Mr Brown sold them all between 1999 and 2001.

    The old age pension will be reviewed and will be raised again, this time from 68 to 70. Oh yes, well all the government spending had to come from somewhere you know, that's why it was put up from 65 to 68. Next stop 70, because all the money is going to the bankers, who will retire at age 55 on their private pension and bonuses.

    Happy New Year.
  • tealady
    tealady Posts: 3,742 Forumite
    Name Dropper First Post First Anniversary Mortgage-free Glee!
    I think in a way 2009 will be better.
    Why. Well people may think twice before spending then fewer people may end up struggling with debt.
    Shops may have to cut prices.
    Home owners may have to be realistic and acept that buying a house is not a licence to print money. I accept that some people HAVE to move but some may realise that trying to keep up with the Jones is a no win situation.
    Fewer people will use cars, for those who live near schools this may mean they can get out of their drives more easily.
    If there are more people on public transport that will encourage the bus and train companies to put more services on.
    People will actually TALK to others instead of just whizzing past.
    This site will grow and grow.
    Yep I'm looking forward to 2009.
    Find out who you are and do that on purpose (thanks to Owain Wyn Jones quoting Dolly Parton)
  • Moneymaker
    Moneymaker Posts: 1,984 Forumite
    Combo Breaker First Post
    In July 2008, one GBP was worth around 14 Chinese Juan. Now it's worth 10. I don't think it takes a genius to see that Chinese imports are going to cost at least 30% more by 2009. If this meant that we'd "buy British" it might be a good thing. But how many British manufacturers are left? Name (for example) one UK manufacturer of TV sets? Or one UK manufacturer of satellite TV receivers or Freeview receivers (actually manufacturing in the UK)? OK, how about a UK manufacturer of bicycles?
  • Moneymaker wrote: »
    In July 2008, one GBP was worth around 14 Chinese Juan. Now it's worth 10. I don't think it takes a genius to see that Chinese imports are going to cost at least 30% more by 2009. If this meant that we'd "buy British" it might be a good thing. But how many British manufacturers are left? Name (for example) one UK manufacturer of TV sets? Or one UK manufacturer of satellite TV receivers or Freeview receivers (actually manufacturing in the UK)? OK, how about a UK manufacturer of bicycles?

    Brompton?

    Amstrad used to make sky boxes

    I suspect the economics of the situation will take over in that prices charged to British wholesalers will reduce reflecting our lower exchange rate or else volumes sold will fall.

    Let them fleece someone else.
  • CFC wrote: »
    2009 is going to be very bad, much worse than 2008. Retail companies folding at the biggest trading time of the year? Just wait till we get into Jan and Feb.


    economy on the rocks of poor leadership, excessive government spending, overt and direct encouragement of the UK as a financial sector rather than a service or production economy, lack of oversight of the FSA and the old boys network that meant that the banks were able to get away with foolhardy behaviour and buying junk bonds.

    State regulation and unnecessary spending will rise massively as Brown continues his path, which will feed through into higher taxes on those who still have a job this time next year. Sorry there's no gold left in the reserves to shore the currency up, Mr Brown sold them all between 1999 and 2001.



    Happy New Year.

    Face it, there is NO way we could have remained a production economy, not with a tiny domestic market and having not joined the Euro. We don't have the German perfectionist culture that creates great cars..and neither do we have that unique European protectionism that sustained their domestic industry. Going the financial services way was the only way forward and we must do everything to retain that crown.
  • The upside is that this may reinstate our own manufacturing and farming base. Any Farmer with his head screwed on will be using up every bit of land that he has to make it productive because if the poo really hits the fan we have all got to eat. When you cant import at a reasonable price then you have to grow and produce your own. Lets get back to the twice weekly market where decent produce was sold instead of imported overpriced 'foodie' food and people will flock to them and buy from them. An even better upside would be if it forced the supermarkets to fight even harder for customers because lets face it they have the monopoly on food and can charge what they want at the moment.
    Proud to have dealt with my debts. Nerd number 288:j Debt free date Dec 07 :EasterBun
    Mortgage as at Dec 08 : £93,077.00
    Mortgage as at Dec 09 : £ 87,948.12
    Mortgage as at Dec 10 : £ 83,680.23
    Mortgage target for Dec 11: £73,680.23
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