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Debate House Prices
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At least a decade for prices to return to 2007 levels.
Comments
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Massive numbers are awaiting the bottom, many of them will have saved considerably.
I have said this many times before. If everyone is waiting for the bottom when does it occur? Prices will stabilize/rise when buyers return. I will not be buying yet, the next person will not be buying yet (continue down the line...)0 -
I find it difficult to predict more than 2 years out (though others dont i realise - some amazingly accurate predictions as to the timing of this crash from almost 10 years ago!)
For me a lot of what happens more than 2 years out really depends on events during those 2 years as to what happens next. But there are a couple of issues that stick out for me that seem problematic for any kind of recovery. Firstly it seems to me that in the next decade the population/demographic shape is going to change with the boomers needing to sell to fund retirement care, but to a generation below that are smaller in number. I think over the last 30 years or so this has been the generation on the 'buying' end of everything and have partly been responsible for rising prices, but that this generation may now find themselves at the 'selling' part of their life
Secondly I'm not really sure how about the consequence of the wholesale increase in higher education and the debt that comes with it. It seems that with each year student numbers and debt levels increase and that it takes quite a long time to get back to zero, never mind saving a deposit. obviously deposits haven't really been so important the last 5 years or so. Not sure how this will pan out
I do think a decade to reach 2007 levels in nominal terms seems about right. The most standard model seems to be perhaps 2 more years of large drops and then steady gradual climb back up again. However I don't know how the factors above will affect things (perhaps not at all!)Prefer girls to money0 -
sabretoothtigger wrote: »Are you able to get 10 yr fixed rates? Surely that must represent the best deal at the moment unless it really were uncompetitive
A chap I worked with got a 10 year fixed rate, purely so he knew where he was with payments etc. Unsure whether you can get them at the moment.My suggestion and/or advice is my own and it is up to you if you follow it, please check the advice given before acting on it.0 -
Will be interesting to see if Mitchaa is correct about people having saved considerably during this period. This is something I am unsure of. I feel that while there may be a significant minority that have done this I wonder if there are enough of them to provide support to prices. I feel that overall we have been, and continue to be, saving less as a nation and that it might take time for new people coming out of university to be saving the 5 figure sums necessary for deposits (unless indeed we are moving back to not needing deposits again - but then I think this may lead us quite quickly to where we are now again instead of a proper recovery)
I think some payrises might help though!Prefer girls to money0 -
How do you define "good HPI"? In your opinion, what would be the ideal percentage rate of increase in house prices year on year?
Obviously not as strong as the last time, but i suspect Sept 2007 prices to be back before Sept 2012.
I think another 10% or so will come off the value of an average house, possibly 15% and then a little stagnation period.
Little stagnation period........I find the idea of 4-5yrs stagnation ludicrous, we are far too greedy to let that happen, BTL, property developing and the STR's will see that it will be much shorter time frame than that. I would say 6-9 mths whilst confidence grows will be about as much stagnation as we'll see.
As you can tell im not in the D+G brigade, i do believe there is light at the end of the tunnel.
Im not an expert though, im just another ordinary Joe like everyone else on here;)0 -
The old banks dont have any money argument
They dont, banks borrow money from others and invest it. They borrow ten times their own capital except now the only person giving them money is the bank of england and thats only because everything they own will be become property of the government should they sink.
You mention people who saved money, thats where any money will come from.
In your sig you mention making money but money isnt made till the deal is done and cash paid, same with the 95% mortgages.
Its best to stick to actual house sales not potential anythingVarley: credit to shrink for up to two years
Well the chief executive of Barclays, John Varley, says in an interview with me for Monday's Panorama (8.30pm on BBC1) that it will take between one and two years for lending to stop shrinking.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/0 -
Mitchaa I see what you mean and you may well be right but why do you think there was stagnation for around 4 years last time around?
(as for STRs I just don't think there are enough of them to make a difference one way or the other - and surely they don't buy first rung places anyway?)Prefer girls to money0 -
I have said this many times before. If everyone is waiting for the bottom when does it occur? Prices will stabilize/rise when buyers return. I will not be buying yet, the next person will not be buying yet (continue down the line...)
People are buying now though, why??
6-9mths of continuous stagnation (+0.5 to -0.5) i would say would be enough to tempt people back into the buying market.
You will also see a lot more mortgage ranges come back, quite possibly 100%.
So let me ask you a question...If we had 9 months of stagnation from now until Sept 2009, up 0.5%, down 0.5%, up 0.5% down 0.5% would this not tempt you into buying Sept 2009? If not, why not?
Nationwide did report a -0.4% drop last month;)
No i dont think this will happen so soon, but come Sept 2009 i think we will start to see this kind of stagnating pattern emerge0 -
A chap I worked with got a 10 year fixed rate, purely so he knew where he was with payments etc. Unsure whether you can get them at the moment.
My parents got a 10 year fix 2-3 years ago in the low 4% area. Maybe 4.2%? Can't quite remember....much enquiry having been made concerning a gentleman, who had quitted a company where Johnson was, and no information being obtained; at last Johnson observed, that 'he did not care to speak ill of any man behind his back, but he believed the gentleman was an attorney'.0 -
There's been a massive draining of the 'pool' of private wealth in the last 10 years, for one reason of course:mad:
Let's recall -
Increases in NI
Pensions shrunk in size as £5,000,000,000 a year stolen by Clown
Investment income subject to withholding tax
Taxation by means of 'crimes' that impose fines the middle-classes
Means testing of pretty much everything
Withdrawal of NHS care such as dentistry to middle-classes
Middle-class student saddled with debt (or fees paid by parents)
PFI Schemes that commit tax-payers for generations
I'd say that the middle-classes are ££ trillions poorer on Net Present Value basis.
Clown's been as cunning as a weasel in picking 'Mondeo Man's' pocket without him realising it. The funny things is that by running the printing presses before the May 09 election, he's making people even poorer as inflation will be back to 10%+ soon enough.0
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