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Fixed or Tracker - Help!!

I know that you need a crystal ball to answer this one, but any advice is greatly appreciated.

I have a repayment mortgage with the Halifax of £168000 over 21 years. I'm looking to put it onto a better rate. Currently £87k is on 5.35% tracker, expires August 06, no penalty,the rest at 5.75% SVR2.
I can't look at other lenders as my salary has dropped dramatically, and all these self certified ones are expensive to change to.

So, I have no preference to fixed or tracker, just whatever would be the cheapest over 5 years.

Halifax can offer me a tracker of 0.65+ base (5.15%) with a £199 fee
or...
5.25% fixed for 5 years with no fee

Both have redemption penalties for 5 years.

I've tried to look at financial websites to see where the thinking is going for base rates, and I'm more puzzled than ever. Rates are slowly coming down, they say. Then they say if there is an election, rates will rise.

Help please!!
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