Some of you are vultures

greenwheels007

mr.broderick wrote: »

It is not a thought that is exactly what will happen.

How can that happen when so many people will lose their jobs, surely that will lead to houses going back on the market?
I thought the banks would want to know if you are in negative equity, arrears and have no job.
Not sure if that is 'exactly what will happen' there are a few factors missing from your equation, I'm sure recession means loss of jobs?

TDS_2

mr.broderick wrote: »

It is not a thought that is exactly what will happen.

And the money to buy the houses will come from....?

The newly unemployed?
FTB with less than 10% deposit?

latecomer

I suspect all the BTL properties that are on the market would keep the FTBs satisfied for a while..

neas

Broderick:I believe nothing, I just wait. If houses starting rising for a few months i may contemplate buying but i'd throw the question back at you:

Do you honestly believe that 2009 will be the year house prices stabilise?
- Rising unemployment
- banks nationalised (part)
- Pound being battered because others see us as a risky economy
- Manufacturing down
- Retail Stores closing down
- In general a recession
-general market sentinent being that the !!!! has hit the fan.

... and a bad one at that.I mean come on, you were arguing houses wouldnt fall 15% a few months back... now they have you've just shifted your argument to the right so to speak.

mr.broderick

greenwheels007 wrote: »

How can that happen when so many people will lose their jobs, surely that will lead to houses going back on the market?
I thought the banks would want to know if you are in negative equity, arrears and have no job.
Not sure if that is 'exactly what will happen' there are a few factors missing from your equation, I'm sure recession means loss of jobs?

No idea it is all exact guess work

neverdespairgirl

greenwheels007 wrote: »

What happens if someone is in negative equity and mortgage arrears and they chuck the keys in then declare themself bankrupt.
Can they be chased for the debt?

**I am honestly not in this position myslef, just being nosey!**

In the UK?

You can't just declare yourself bankrupt, you have to apply for it, and the court has to be satisifed that your liabilities exceed your assests, that you are in fact bankrupt.

If you are declared bankrupt, the arrears and negative equity is part of the bankruptcy, yes.

mr.broderick

neas wrote: »

Broderick:I believe nothing, I just wait. If houses starting rising for a few months i may contemplate buying but i'd throw the question back at you:Do you honestly believe that 2009 will be the year house prices stabilise?- Rising unemployment- banks nationalised (part)- Pound being battered because others see us as a risky economy- Manufacturing down- Retail Stores closing down- In general a recession... and a bad one at that.I mean come on, you were arguing houses wouldnt fall 15% a few months back... now they have you've just shifted your argument to the right so to speak.

I said i expected house prices to fall 15%. This government will do anything in its power to try and save this economy, that now is the only thing i am sure of.

DirectDebacle

phil1873football wrote: »

Here's a thought, if all these people who bought their house in the last few years (including myself) decide never to sell because they won't get back what they paid for it (because they can't afford to make that sort of loss), won't that mean loads of FTB's chasing after the very few homes that are for sale, therefore, pushing prices back up.

Just a thought...shoot me down if you so feel the need!!

I don't think that will necessarily be the case. AFAIK around 60% of properties have no mortgage and are owned outright. Of the remaining 40% a good percentage will not be in negative equity. My current home as an example I bought in 96 on an 80% mortgage. The recently ridiculous HPI took this from £57k in 96 to £300k in 2006. There will be many in this position of poz equity. I think purchasers in your position will be a minority in the overall scheme of things and will be bypassed. There is a lot of supply in the system for FTB unsold city centre flats and those under construction that have been mothballed. Not a cheery thought but just the way I see it.

neas

mr.broderick wrote: »

I said i expected house prices to fall 15%. This government will do anything in its power to try and save this economy, that now is the only thing i am sure of.

And clearly... that isnt enough.

Imagine a gambler.... he lost 100 billion pound.... instead of calling it quits he bets another 100 billion pound hoping to reclaim the original lost 100 billion.

Thats the level of our goernments power..

the_ash_and_the_oak

I think phil1873football's point illustrates why the climb down from peak on previous occasions and on this occasion is so gradual and dragged out..

I personally believe that what he says is what will provide some level of support on the way down, and also illustrate why we shouldn't be expecting to see any kind of bottom for some time

The alternative scenario - which I don't believe will happen in the short term but is plausible especially over a longer term - is one where sellers do indeed decide to stay put, and buyers unable to enter - leading to a shift in the composition of the housing market. There is nothing to suggest that the current levels of owner occupancy will remain as they are, and following generations may not enter
the housing market as they have over the last 35 years (especially if student and other non-secured debt remains at high levels)...I don't believe a change to a society with a lower level of owner occupancy is necessarily a bad thing