Sellers on strike

hethmar

Im sure something suitable will come along kool

michaels

Only thing is with interest rates so low renting is no longer the cheap option in terms of cashflow. My house would be about 900-1000 pcm to rent but interest at 3% on entire value would only be about 700.

Makes me think there is value is BTL at the moment if the asset is to be held long term - assuming that economic meltdown doesn't hugely increase the proportion of voids etc

Gorgeous_George

SGE1 wrote: »

I think he's right. Though note, he says begin to recover, not that the recession will be over. Say, in Q1 and Q2 2009, the economy shrinks by 0.5%, but in Q3, it shrinks by inly 0.4%, and in Q4, by 0.3% - that's a recovery, but it doesn't mean the recession is over.

So I don't think Darling is being as cheery or delusional as you're implying.

Ah but you are forgetting 'rate of change'. Say the economy shrinks 0.2% in Q1 and 0.4% in Q2, it can shrink 0.59% (maybe even 0.79%) in Q3 and the rate of change will be falling. Proof, if ever it was needed, that [strike]Baldrick[/strike] Darling had a cunning plan all along.

GG

kennyboy66_2

Look at the last 2 UK recessions and you will be surprised how short the technical definition of recession lasts. 4 quarters of shrinking GDP in the early 80's and only 3 quarters in the early 90's.

Of course unemployment can keep rising for years.

3 reasons why the economy may be growing or static by Q3 2009

1) Reduced inventorys is usually a large factor in recessions - they have to build back at some point.
2) The oil price & commodity prices are much lower than 12 months ago.
3) The low level of sterling should allow exports to start increasing.

StevieJ

kennyboy66 wrote: »

Look at the last 2 UK recessions and you will be surprised how short the technical definition of recession lasts. 4 quarters of shrinking GDP in the early 80's and only 3 quarters in the early 90's.

Of course unemployment can keep rising for years.

3 reasons why the economy may be growing or static by Q3 2009

1) Reduced inventorys is usually a large factor in recessions - they have to build back at some point.
2) The oil price & commodity prices are much lower than 12 months ago.
3) The low level of sterling should allow exports to start increasing.

Spot on Kennyboy.

mean_momma

bo_drinker wrote: »

We are waiting to buy ( sold in Sept and waiting to buy the "right" one. We are in temp accom waiting like vultures) but they are not out there at present. Who knows what will happen

Following the 1990's reecession, we were happy to sell our house for less than we paid for it, on the grounds that we could buy a replacement for a similar price. Easier said than done, as nothing much of interest seemed to come on the market. Yes, there were distress sales, but none in the desired areas. That is to say, none that spent any significant time on the open market. Quite possibly anything interesting was snapped up before, or immediately after, being officially advertised.

Perhaps, if this recession is much worse than the last one, things will be different, although I would think that there are many 'vultures' out there even now, ready to swoop on anything worthwhile.

neverdespairgirl

michaels wrote: »

Only thing is with interest rates so low renting is no longer the cheap option in terms of cashflow. My house would be about 900-1000 pcm to rent but interest at 3% on entire value would only be about 700.

I strongly doubt you can get a new mortgage of anywhere near 3% at the moment, though.

michaels

neverdespairgirl wrote: »

I strongly doubt you can get a new mortgage of anywhere near 3% at the moment, though.

Till a week ago hsbc were offering a tracker at +0.99 although obviously not 100%!

Generali

kennyboy66 wrote: »

Look at the last 2 UK recessions and you will be surprised how short the technical definition of recession lasts. 4 quarters of shrinking GDP in the early 80's and only 3 quarters in the early 90's.

Of course unemployment can keep rising for years.

3 reasons why the economy may be growing or static by Q3 2009

1) Reduced inventorys is usually a large factor in recessions - they have to build back at some point.
2) The oil price & commodity prices are much lower than 12 months ago.
3) The low level of sterling should allow exports to start increasing.

What you say is true.

The great imponderables in all of this are to what extent have businesses been damaged by a lack of access to investment funds and how risk averse will households be.

The fiscal 'give away' in Australia last time didn't work as about $6,000,000,000 of $8,000,000,000 was saved or used to pay down debt. Another big chunk of money has been handed out to poor and middle income parents and pensioners, this time with an exhortation from the MP that it is the patriotic thing to spend it.

If savings levels return to the long term average in the UK, that will mean a one off fall in GDP of about 7% (back of envelope calculation - 70% of GDP is personal consumption, savings rate needs to rise by 10% of personal income I think).

Of course finally there is the Obama effect. Obama made some pretty strong noises about protectionism on the campaign trail. If he is as protectionist as he made out in some speeches then the world economy will be in for some very rough times indeed:

eg link

- President-elect Barack Obama is expected to make preserving jobs and restoring U.S. economic health the focus of his trade policy after promising to get tough on China and renegotiate trade pacts.......

He has backed legislation that would define currency manipulation as a subsidy under U.S. trade law -- opening the door for the United States to impose duties on a large swath of Chinese goods -- and promised to beef up trade enforcement operations at U.S. Trade Representative's office.

neverdespairgirl

michaels wrote: »

Till a week ago hsbc were offering a tracker at +0.99 although obviously not 100%!

Yes, but that's not really buying at 3%. It is likely to go up significantly soon, I'd have thought.