better to buy now (or soonish), than at the bottom of the market

besonders1

A lot of FTB's (like myself) forget that the benefits of the housing crash also comes with other problems such as lack of jobs and mortgages which are essential ingredients when buying house unless your a millionaire even if every house went down to the mid-late 1990s. I wouldn't want to have to pay a mortgage if I didn't have a job therefore the only people who would be able to buy would be property developers with cash in hand, but they would want them at "steal" prices.
I have seen many reductions of 10% off 2007 prices with a lot of interest but I wouldn't say they are a bargain in my opinion and anyone who buys them will almost certainly struggle or end up being repossessed.

bo_drinker

Most houses on sale are cra p or have issues. In a quandry as we sold in October did not buy again waiting for the right one to come along but not sure whether to jump back on ladder yet. No mortgage required and living in rent free temp accom.

nickj_2

i don't think it is a buyers market at the moment
the only people who are moving are those who have to move
people who are at risk of losing their jobs are not going to get a bigger mortgage to move . and if i was a ftb i would certainly hang on at least for another year .
also as the credit crunch has hit people who were lent unrealistic amounts that they couldn't afford when the interest rates went up , do we really need the house prices to recover to their peak levels , if they do surely it will happen all over again
the banks are caught between a rock and a hard place , if they restrict lending to 3 .5 times earnings than people would not be able to afford a house , if they lend at the high multiples that got them into this mess ,as soon as interest rates go up , as they will do sooner or later then they will be stuffed

hethmar

I cant see the prices soaring again or even rising for another 4 or 5 years.

phil_b_2

I would agree that buying now isn't as stupid as it might first seem.

I'd say it isn't the best time to buy when the bottom of the market is reached. It is when sentiment bottoms that could be the best.

If you go for a house listed at £140k went sentiment is rock bottom, then you might be able to snap it up with a £110k offer.
Fast forward to when the bottom is indeed hit and that house is listed at £120k, it is likely sentiment will be on the up and offers wont be taken. If you know it is the bottom of the market, so will the vendor, and they will hold out for their £120k asking. you'll pay £10k more than you might have done. That's just hypothetical of course.

So if people on here reckon the bottom is in 12 months to come, then you might want to be looking to buy at a hearty discount in 9 months...

If you can get a big discount now then just buy. You have basically hit the fast-forward button on the HPC. Just do your research and make sure the discount is real by checking historical prices of similar houses on the same street etc.

Davesnave

If you have sold at a good price, you might do a good deal now and save a lot of hassle for yourself. However, how many of us selling recently have done a good deal?

Having dropped my price to get ahead of the market and retain a sale, I now expect others to do the same for me. In the market sector I'm interested in, I'm now seeing some notable reductions, but on the whole, not good enough, so it's probably not time to buy yet. However, I agree with those who say don't rule anything out or in and keep up your research, because then you'll know when the right property comes along. I have had a couple of tasty properties pass me by whilst unsold.

Frankly, I don't think this is at all the same as the last recession, but something much, much worse. I can't understand those who think it is all going to bottom-out in a year or so. John Humphries has just called this period 'the phoney recession' on R4, which is exactly what I called it a few weeks back, because the real thing will begin after Christmas, when firms will start the programmes of lay-offs that they've already planned.

In short, 2008 has been an awful year for sellers, but I think it will look like a picnic in 6 months time. From then on is when I expect to see the real bargains.

wymondham

With October/Novembers drop being 2.6%, looks like the drop is accelerating - theres still a way to go yet in my opinion, and this has not yet factored in the coming steep unemployment rise (after chrsitmas). I still think it's an odd time to be even contemplating buying at present - i would'nt fancy losing thousands of pounds a month in this climate.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7764272.stm

purch

Personally I'd rather buy (anything) 10% above the bottom in the way up, rather than 10% above the bottom on the way down !!!

Lotus-eater

Davesnave wrote: »

Frankly, I don't think this is at all the same as the last recession, but something much, much worse. I can't understand those who think it is all going to bottom-out in a year or so. John Humphries has just called this period 'the phoney recession' on R4, which is exactly what I called it a few weeks back, because the real thing will begin after Christmas, when firms will start the programmes of lay-offs that they've already planned.

I think that's right, I can't understand how so many people are in trouble already, many without job losses, just mortgage and loan changes. What does that tell me?
Firstly, much too much has been borrowed too close to the edge of affordability.
Secondly, its going to get much much worse.

Frankly, it amazes me that others can't see it happening and the government wants to continue the borrowing spree. Very sensible.

dopester

Davesnave wrote: »

Frankly, I don't think this is at all the same as the last recession, but something much, much worse. I can't understand those who think it is all going to bottom-out in a year or so. John Humphries has just called this period 'the phoney recession' on R4, which is exactly what I called it a few weeks back, because the real thing will begin after Christmas, when firms will start the programmes of lay-offs that they've already planned.

In short, 2008 has been an awful year for sellers, but I think it will look like a picnic in 6 months time. From then on is when I expect to see the real bargains.

Same here. I don't think people truly understand that a paradigm has been smashed. Hethmar believing this is the bottom. Bandying prices from the world of 2003 onwards around as though they are some kind of value in buying today.... when bank after bank has undergone serious carnage and the entire financial world is undergoing serious deleveraging. Crazy. Crash of 70%+ for me.