Seeking your opinions on a genuine dilemma...

Dithering_Dad

TDS wrote: »

Agreed.

I'm not sure we're that near the bottom yet, but we're far enough from the top that you've left it too late to make the 'quick buck'. If finances allow, you should instead play the long game. Bear in mind though that there will almost certainly be further financial pressures as we pass through the recession. Make sure it's not a pinch at this stage, else you'll be selling at the absolute bottom. That is a 'mug punter'.

Thanks TDS, that's made what I was trying to get across much clearer.

In investing, you're not a 'mug' if you can sell falling stock and buy back in at a much lower level - providing your subsequent gains outweigh the costs accrued in selling and what you've already lost in the fall.

With housing, it's much more expensive to sell and then buy lower than it is with shares. Unless you agree with some people on here that we will see 50% - 70% drops across the board then as TDS has said, you're already too late.

If, however, you think that BTL just isn't for you as an investment, then it's probably better to cut your loses and get out. I think that you'll regret it come the next housing boom...

Mr_Matey

msquandary wrote: »

Mr Matey - You have managed to sum up my dilemma completely and succinctly in just 5 bullet points - I should have hired you as a consultant before posting it and saved everyone the pain of reading it..... You hit the nail on the head, apart from point one - it's not actually the HPC stuff that's stressing me, it's the magnitude and unpredictability and scariness of the entire financial situation - if it the correction wasn't driven by the credit crisis, resulting in banks falling and governments bailing out whole economies, talk of deflation/inflation/country going bankrupt blah blah I would not be half so concerned.... But you are right, I am in a position to weather the storm unless something really unpredictable happens.... - and for that I realise I am far luckier than alot of other people.

Hi again, thanks .
I tried to stay away from the debate on where house prices are going here, because if you've been reading this forum for a while you probably have your own ideas.

If I haven't missed anything, the decision then comes down to balancing the importance of these points. Some replies have pointed more at the "prices may fall", others at "prices may rise" and others on the stresses of managing a property while studying. Ultimately it's up to you though.

Starting up a new career may require a bit of capital, especially if you can't get a job straight away or have to relocate. That's why I think selling 1 is the best move for you. If the economy deteriorates then you've got some cash to see you through, and if it improves you still have 1 property.

Where you work will be an important factor. If you do end up in Brighton then I think it makes sense to sell the London property.

Best of luck with the new career though!

msquandary

Hi all and thanks so much for all our posts since yesterday - I hope I haven't seemed rude by not replying until now, but in particular DD's and fc123's posts yesterday morning really triggered some things so I have been hiding away doing alot of thinking.

The current situation is that I do have a buyer. I didn't make it clear before because it was looking pretty shaky, and I myself have been having doubts hence posting here. Since yesterday it looks as if things are on track once more and if we proceed as planned I may even exchange within the next week at 10% off peak, recouping £50k of my original £60k deposit (certainly not banking on anything until it actually happens - been here before this summer)... so am feeling particularly under pressure today to make a decision.

DD - your comments about getting into BTL and then not bailing when times are tough really struck a chord. I think part of the problem is it was never that clear a strategy. Yes, when I bought in Brighton I did decide to keep London long term as an investment (and remain comfortable with that decision even now). But I chose it as a home so it's not the greatest 'investment' choice (quirky, listed building, very energy inefficient, phenomenal service charges..). Similarly when I decided to keep it I bought Brighton as a 'home' rather than an investment, as such it is still on a residential mortgage (it was only let because I went abroad). For various reasons (I have changed alot in the last few years) it is no longer the place I would choose to live now so even if I kept it I would probably still let it out and rent somewhere else....

So if I sell it would be - because it's no longer what I would choose as a 'home', to release me from having to worry about/manage an extra property while I study, and to give me a deposit in the bank for when and if I am ready to make a 'home' again - wherever that may be.
However, like you DD and TDS I have strong misgivings about bailing out in a falling market which is how it feels because I very much believe in holding on to property for the long term (or I used to, maybe my priorities are changing too....).

And therein the dilemma - I am totally torn between wanting to free myself of committments for a few years while I see how my life falls into place in the new career - versus - the fear that selling at a loss in a falling market is just a crazy, short sighted thing to do that I will come to regret.

I made the decision to sell in April and if the first sale had gone through I would not have taken a loss - now I really wish I had never made that decision at all as I wouldn't be in the position of having to make an impossible decision now.

Mr Matey, I do read this and other forums and the media but have not managed to form my own opinion on where house prices are going - seems it could be anything from down 50% to bouncing back next summer - if only I did have an opinion, the decision would be clearer! You seem to have a really good grasp of the various factors that are driving my decision and what I'm trying to acheive so I really appreciate your posts.

Also, to answer some other comments, I am unlikely to be in a position where I have to sell in the next few years - both mortgages are on interest only but the residential one has associated 'mortgage repayment' investments which I could cash in if I really had to.... (worth about £50k I think, but I don't look these days it's too scary...)

I do worry that if I sell now to give myself freedom and options I end up in a position where in 3 years I know where I want to live and can't get a residential mortgage - keeping the flat just to keep the mortgage is tempting too... too many variables!

It seems that there is no clear right or wrong answer, and therefore no 'mistake', I will have to accept and live with my choice whatever. But boy is it a hard one to make and getting harder under pressure...

Thanks for giving me a sounding board - am really glad I decided to post.

msquandary

Oops, my posts come out ridiculously long don't they? I apologise for that and will work on it......!

lostinrates

Msquandry, your posts are fine

My question for you (to ask your self) would be less finanacial than emotional I guess.

At 38 you are indeed young, but my guess is pretty developed as a character You must be having a snse of what is most important for you to be happy as regards investment/income I imagine.

Although FC is right, there is a lot of people needing nutritional help - a lot of nutritionalists are self employed, and while no more a gamble in itself, (potentially less so one could argue) it will involve a commitment to the financial 'workings' of your salary that being PAYE doesn't. For some incorporating the rental is no more of an issue, for some a step too far.

Are you commited to the UK now? That would be a factor for me in deciding too.

FWIW in your shoes I would sell one and keep one, hedging my bets slightly, and making sure my other methods of 'saving' were balanced, maintaining one rntal income/potential roof over my head and minimising the stress without bailing out completely, but thats a choice based as much on how I feel about it as a person as it is against what I think is financially wise.

PasturesNew

What does a nutritionist do to earn an income? How is the money made? Who buys, who pays, how does the money go round?

Is it a sustainable business idea in a time of recession? How do challenging financial times affect its viability?

I've NO IDEA what a nutritionist is, does, or what the training could be for, or at what level. I can guess at jobs, but would probably miss out 99% of how they'd work. I don't know much about 'jobs people do'.

msquandary

lostinrates wrote: »

Msquandry, your posts are fine
Are you commited to the UK now? That would be a factor for me in deciding too.
.

That is an interesting one - No, I'm not committed to the UK at all. One of the many reasons I chose to study nutrition (apart from it being my favorite subject!) is that it is portable and flexible so would allow me to take it abroad. So I'm curious, if how would this be a factor if it was your decision? Thanks for your post by the way, it sums up the strategy I'd be following if I go through with the sale.

You are also right in what you say about nutrition - I don't expect to earn loads, and also will be responsible for my own benefits, pension provision etc. I suppose that's partly why I worry that selling one flat is now is short-sighted - after all I don't have much doubt that by the time I retire I'd be glad I kept both (I just might not be glad over the next 2-3 years, and having extricated myself from a very stressful life that took it's toll on my health I am trying to avoid falling back into the trap). Tough one really, how to maintain a balance and quality of life, have time to stop and smell the flowers, but at the same time deal with the realities of having to survive from a financial point of view... not so easy.

lostinrates

Pastures ,

I've seen four nutritionists. One was salaried (NHS) on was recently selfemployed (previously NHS) one was part salaried (private) part self employed, the other was self employed. - and had been for a while but we didn't discuss it to much so don't know her history.

The private ones are definitely a thing for people who have spending money (but what isn't). Despite having a fairly complex set of nutritional circumstances I personally chose a hairdresser appt this week over a nutritionalist appt....its arguable which I need more. Which might be why I'm porky but have great hair.

msquandary

PasturesNew wrote: »

What does a nutritionist do to earn an income? How is the money made? Who buys, who pays, how does the money go round?

Is it a sustainable business idea in a time of recession? How do challenging financial times affect its viability?

I've NO IDEA what a nutritionist is, does, or what the training could be for, or at what level. I can guess at jobs, but would probably miss out 99% of how they'd work. I don't know much about 'jobs people do'.

Myself I'll be hoping to work with individuals one-one to give them advice on nutrition either to help relieve ill-health or to optimise health. I'm also interested in lecturing/teaching in the area. I guess writing articles is also an option. Am not 100% sure myself yet but it's my main interest and I spent long enough in a job I hated so I decided to train in my passion and trust that it will lead me somewhere good. All these options would involve being self employed. Working one-one with clients is not an ideal career move in a recession as it's 'private' health and something people will be cutting back on - but by the time I'm qualified I'm hoping we'll be on the way out the other side..... also possible to get employed in NHS but much less chance of that at that is what Dieticians are for.
But really a bit early to say - I only started study in September so long way to go - should be practising by mid/late 2010 if I do well.

lostinrates

msquandary wrote: »

That is an interesting one - No, I'm not committed to the UK at all. One of the many reasons I chose to study nutrition (apart from it being my favorite subject!) is that it is portable and flexible so would allow me to take it abroad. So I'm curious, if how would this be a factor if it was your decision? Thanks for your post by the way, it sums up the strategy I'd be following if I go through with the sale.

You are also right in what you say about nutrition - I don't expect to earn loads, and also will be responsible for my own benefits, pension provision etc. I suppose that's partly why I worry that selling one flat is now is short-sighted - after all I don't have much doubt that by the time I retire I'd be glad I kept both (I just might not be glad over the next 2-3 years, and having extricated myself from a very stressful life that took it's toll on my health I am trying to avoid falling back into the trap). Tough one really, how to maintain a balance and quality of life, have time to stop and smell the flowers, but at the same time deal with the realities of having to survive from a financial point of view... not so easy.

I would be reluctant to have too much property asset in country where I am not living. IME with family properties agents are not as good as your own eyes and opinion on the mudanities like maintaining gutters etc. In your shoes alrteady having two properties I'd sell the one furthest from my family, so they could swing by the other evry 6 months or I could more easily when visiting them. Property might be more 'tangible' than other investments, a nice thing I agree, but the tangibility means it benefits from, well, being touched! If potentially moving from UK in the nearish future its equally imaginable the money I had invested in property here (in your shoes) might be better spent invested in property for me to live in elsewhere (also minimising the OS issues with tax etc).

In opting out of a stressful career for an enjoyable one, have you not to some extent made the decision that stress is not something you thrive on? . Of course, I agree, no point throwing your hands up and trying to live the impossible stress free existance, and money is strssful, but you can be less hands on with other investments. So, next question for your self might be, how stressful or not you find these properties?