UK prices to plunge like the US

StevieJ

sympatex wrote: »

setmefree2, you're getting dangerously close to the under supply over demand for housing argument there. You'll get slapped down!

Point is valid but i think current indications of loads of houses standing empty as the owners can't sell or rent it lowers that arguments validity.

There's also debate over whether the government can do anything to stop the economic cycle, it would be a first. They can ease it as best they can but it will come at a cost for someone else.

Ah but if you check Dopesters position, house crammed to the rafters with bodies:D
just waiting to pounce on the market.

kennyboy66_2

ad9898 wrote: »

I still have no idea where this myth of 'not enough houses comes from', we have plenty of housing stock, even now there are thousands and thousands of houses for sale and when the amatuer BTL'rs start squeaking (a few already are), there will be an over supply here too.

Another load of crap pedaled by Clown.

Possibly because if prices are so high it usually means that demand exceeds supply.

If buy to let was not so lightly taxed, then it should have reduced demand, particularly for those FTB type properties.

geoffky

setmefree2 wrote: »

I have read Schiller's book "The sub-prime solution" (I didn't know it was new, I read it awhile ago) and it highlights a massive difference between the US and the UK housing market. In the US they massively over built so they have an over supply of houses. This is not the case in the UK.

Furthermore, and thankfully, our government has learned from the US and has every intention of supporting the housing market. It's in no-one's interest for us to end up like the US.

You shouldn't believe hype.

OVER 1 MILLION HOUSES FOR SALE ON RIGHTMOVE
AND OVER 1 MILLION EMPTY PROPERTIES DOES NOT MAKE A SHORTAGE..:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

http://property.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/property/buying_and_selling/article2686130.ece



http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/3459014/Nearly-a-million-buy-to-let-properties-are-standing-empty.html

sabretoothtigger

Hard to believe that a 200k house would go on to sell for 20k in the uk

My old landlady did once (before this boom) buy a house for 10k but it was an old coal miners house.
As someone not heavily invested in housing I dont think I qualify as being in denial as it would mostly benefit me but I just dont think its likely in the uk market, we are not like the usa for half a dozen different reasons.

The market will suffer, prices will fall but people will not walk away from mortgages debt free like they can in the usa afaik. Much more likely is years and years of a dismal depressed market.

The mistakes of this decade will effect us well into the next but the op article is still wrong imo

IT_nerd

I can pick up a 9 bedroom house in Ohio for £15K.
But what's the point? Unemployment is almost guarenteed..

It's all relitive.

westv

kennyboy66 wrote: »

Possibly because if prices are so high it usually means that demand exceeds supply.

But I suppose the normal rules of supply and demand have been slightly skewed with the availability until recently of easy credit, silly income multiples and crazy loan to value percentages.

sabretoothtigger

Yea thats a good point, supply and demand is not dead but the massive credit boost has to be reversed and realised in the price in order for real value to appear.
I guess that means at least double the normal recovery time will have to be suffered

This is why the government wants 2007 levels of credit, I think that is impossible.
Even if they put the banks on puppet strings (ie. barclays fears) it would still fail to control the international funding which march to their own drum or at least a more distant one then anything this government controls

Our future prospects are more reliant on america then ever before?

IT_nerd wrote: »

I can pick up a 9 bedroom house in Ohio for £15K.
But what's the point? Unemployment is almost guarenteed..

It's all relitive.

Good for teleworkers with a green card though :cool:

neverdespairgirl

kennyboy66 wrote: »

Possibly because if prices are so high it usually means that demand exceeds supply.
.

Yes - but there was a hell of a bubble in the housing market.

purch

Possibly because if prices are so high it usually means that demand exceeds supply

Possibly because if prices are so high it usually means that GREED exceeds supply.

The Housing market in the U.K. has never followed simple economics such as supply and demand. Of course there were/are severe supply constraints in the more favourable areas of the country, which cause those areas to be at a premium, but the extreme HPI that occurs every 15 years or so is usually sparked by something other than just supply and demand factors.

sabretoothtigger

Demand is variable because people can just share or put up with less space or a longer commute or whatever but eventually people will pay for value that improves their lifestyle

so I dont think demand has disappeared but it is elastic in its nature.
Demand exceeding supply now seems like a misdiagnosis, the real problem was oversupply of money