Nationwide Nov08: -0.4% Mom, -13.9% Yoy

ad44downey

As Fionnuala Earley would say :"House prices are still 50% higher than they were during World War II " :T

kennyboy66_2

I for one think prices have still got someway to fall (10-15%), but I am very disappointed not too see posts saying that either.

1) the figures have been fiddled (ZanuLabour have told Nationwide to fiddle them)
2) The figures are meaningless because of the lower number of transactions.
3) I won't be buying until I see 70% fall.
4) Bull trap! Bull trap! Bull trap !

wintersunshine

adr0ck wrote: »

This is an interesting bit from the report:

“Turnover rates in the housing market have fallen to
historic lows, even below the levels in the 1990s
when the economic conditions were worse than they
are today. At the trough of the market in Q4 1990,
interest rates were at 14% and there were almost
double the number of unemployment claimants, yet a
greater proportion of owner occupiers were taking out
mortgages to move house. The significant difference
today is the financial market shock which has led to
the severe tightening of credit. In Q4 1990, 60% of
first time buyers were taking out loans with LTVs above
90%, today the equivalent proportion is 14%. While this
may reflect less desire on the part of borrowers to borrow
at high LTV, especially given its higher cost, it also implies
that part of the reduction in turnover today is likely to be
due to the availability of finance at higher LTV."

The early 1990's were different because there was no government support for mortgage holders if you lost your job. Now if you lose your job, after 13 weeks the government will pay the interest on your mortgage. What this means is that everyone can just stay where they are and ride out the storm. The only people getting repossessed are those who would have been getting repossessed anyway because they were over commited, recession or not. I don't believe you will see a 1990's style collapse in the housing market in terms of rising repos.

Really2

ad44downey wrote: »

As Fionnuala Earley would say :"House prices are still 50% higher than they were during World War II " :T

Meaning some were complatly flattened I whould say they were 100% taller.;)

Generali

Monthly numbers are little more than noise. Year on year figures are meaningful. IMO of course.

mitchaa

Haha, not what the MSE door mongers were hoping for this morning;)

The average home lost £430 in the last month:rotfl: What about the £1000 rent you lot have just wasted:p

50% drops my ar*e. We are still not at 15% with this latest rise:D

kennyboy66_2

adr0ck wrote: »

This is an interesting bit from the report:

“Turnover rates in the housing market have fallen to
historic lows, even below the levels in the 1990s
when the economic conditions were worse than they
are today. At the trough of the market in Q4 1990,
interest rates were at 14% and there were almost
double the number of unemployment claimants, yet a
greater proportion of owner occupiers were taking out
mortgages to move house. The significant difference
today is the financial market shock which has led to
the severe tightening of credit. In Q4 1990, 60% of
first time buyers were taking out loans with LTVs above
90%, today the equivalent proportion is 14%. While this
may reflect less desire on the part of borrowers to borrow
at high LTV, especially given its higher cost, it also implies
that part of the reduction in turnover today is likely to be
due to the availability of finance at higher LTV."

You could read this an number of ways, but could this mean there is a large number of potential FTB waiting for prices to fall a bit more whilst they try and get their deposit above the magic 10% mark.

If prices fall say another 10% & a borrower has a 10% plus desposit, how risky a loan is that for a bank ?

Really2

Generali wrote: »

Monthly numbers are little more than noise. Year on year figures are meaningful. IMO of course.

I agree on that but that little BBC graph a lot on here loved will start pointing up.

Some people then do not realise prices are falling as a graph pointing up means prices are rising.;) (I know it does not, but some think it does.)

wintersunshine

mitchaa wrote: »

The average home lost £430 in the last month:rotfl: What about the £1000 rent you lot have just wasted:p

Not to mention the legal fees, estate agents fees, removal costs, etc that they still have to recoup. Plus the cost of a more expensive mortgage possibly.

kennyboy66_2

It must be like waking up on Christmas morning and finding only an empty stocking when prices fail to fall by at least 1.5% in a month for some people.