When do you think house prices will hit the bottom of the market?

chrisandanne

June 2011

Strange, how it's always newbies who go on the attack. Seems to me that some people don't have the bottle to attack in their former names.

Would it be too much to ask you to open your minds to the possibility that the last few years have been the abberation. That only a few years ago it was possible to buy a home with 3.5 salary and a 10% deposit and this was the norm.

This mindset....the one that sees rents at £800 on properties that might in the future cost £80,000... it's not going to be like that. The people who don't alter their mindset to the new reality, which is in fact the reality of only a few years ago still risk finding themselves badly burnt.

People who want to buy a house at a bargain price to live in are called vultures by some here.... but critisise btl and you are called repugnant and sick. I will be glad when the btl'ers are gorged to the limit and then perhaps ordinary people with a normal income can get a house.
A

p.s. Nagiw is Wigan spelt backwards...now who do we know who lives in Wigan ?.

StevieJ

June 2009

dopester wrote: »

I now hope there is a bull-trap in 2009.

Would be sweet to see more people buying 2nd and 3rd homes as investment properties, only for the market to continue crashing as I expect it will.... and bringing the "investorz" down to size by losing their properties and their own homes, and thus feeding the crash further.

Bring it on.

Of course Dopester it could work the other way and leave you in that lttlle back room, in your overcrowded house for the rest of your life

dopester

June 2013 or later

Thermidor wrote: »

Repugnant little being! I absolutely agree. I'm further surprised that some people have thanked some of his comments. I can only imagine they are his pseudonyms or the people agreeing with him are as sick as he is.

Go purchase a Buy-To-Let in 2009 if it makes you happy.

Don't blame me if you get voids or people who can't afford the rent you require to service your debts, due to ever rising unemployment and deeper pay-cuts, and the banks repossess both your BTL and your own home.

penguine

June 2013 or later

mrandmrswilliams wrote: »

I shall be writing to the administrator of MSE and asking them why a handful of members who are out to cause grief are still allowed to post on here. I would like to see them banned so that we have more balanced views from unbiased members.

Everyone has a bias. What would be the point of discussing our opinions if we didn't? As someone with a young child who would like to someday own a house with a garden, I'm biased in favour of first-time buyers, which means I want house prices to fall.

What's your bias? If you want to see more "balanced views" on this forum, why not start by posting your own?

markelock

i own my own house (with a mortgage), but I'm almost at the bottom of the market, and so, I'm happy to see prices become a little more reasonable for people wanting to buy my house (should I sell it), in order for me to save money purchasing a larger/different house.

what still suprises me (even using propertybee) is that prices in my area don't seem to be dropping, certainly no more than 5% (Newcastle Under Lyme). Either someone's lying, or people still don't understand that you can't dictate how much your house is worth anymore.

Annpan

December 2009

markelock wrote: »

i own my own house (with a mortgage), but I'm almost at the bottom of the market, and so, I'm happy to see prices become a little more reasonable for people wanting to buy my house (should I sell it), in order for me to save money purchasing a larger/different house.

what still suprises me (even using propertybee) is that prices in my area don't seem to be dropping, certainly no more than 5% (Newcastle Under Lyme). Either someone's lying, or people still don't understand that you can't dictate how much your house is worth anymore.

I don't think this part of Staffordshire had the huge rises seen in some parts of the country and houses in Stoke on Trent are very cheap in comparison to other inner city areas. The nearer the centre you get the cheaper they go. You can get a terraced house for £50,000.
Newcastle is more upmarket, but not ever so.
Another thing that's probably the case is that people have dropped prices by about 5% because they know any offers will be another 10% less. Only the desperate are undercutting by a bigger margin.

markelock

Annpan wrote: »

I don't think this part of Staffordshire had the huge rises seen in some parts of the country and houses in Stoke on Trent are very cheap in comparison to other inner city areas. The nearer the centre you get the cheaper they go. You can get a terraced house for £50,000.
Newcastle is more upmarket, but not ever so.
Another thing that's probably the case is that people have dropped prices by about 5% because they know any offers will be another 10% less. Only the desperate are undercutting by a bigger margin.

% wise the area has made huge gains over the past several years. The £50k houses were above £60k, and started well below £20k. I've just had a look on rightmove though at the terraces, houses for £30k! unbelieveable, although a real shame, as they look like repo's.

Newcastle is a world away from Stoke! (on the whole anyway):D

I've lived in my house for the past 5 years, the owner before me paid £50k, I paid £148k. I doubt it's worth much more than I paid for it (but it's my home rather than just an investment)

It will be interesting to see what prices vendors achieve though.

harryhound

People who want to buy a house at a bargain price to live in are called vultures by some here.... but critisise btl and you are called repugnant and sick. I will be glad when the btl'ers are gorged to the limit and then perhaps ordinary people with a normal income can get a house.

Yes but:
Do you think it is fair that BTL's get tax relief on their mortgage interest and 18% (theoretically) on their capital gain if any.
FTB's probably pay at least 25% tax on the money they earn to pay the interest but don't pay any tax on their capital gain if any.
(Now FTB's who put a lodger in the spare room.................. I could go on)

Talltree_2

December 2010

I would like to take the liberty of adding to the debate.

Living where I do in a fairly affluent area house prices are not falling as much as they are in other areas .. So point 1 , I think when the bottom of the market arrives the timing will depend upon where you happen to live.

I also think that people, (including some here) are "talking" the market down, for sure there are dire economic issues however this is the first recession where blogs such as this give access to all to vent their opinions, this is a good thing, but it's easy to fall into a "black hole of worry" . Even in the 1930,s the majority of middle class Americans where not affected substantially .. It was the very rich and the very poor that got hit worse.

Point 2 ..... There is a lot of pent up demand for houses, people grow up and leave home, they marry (or not), they die, they move jobs, they divorce, they need somewhere to live. There is a threshold beneath which house prices will not fall. It's supply (limited) and demand (high).on a crowded island. The US is a different case.

Point 3 ........ The banks are in trouble, when ever something happens there is an action and a re-action, often the re-action or bounce is bigger than it needs to be until normality re-asserts itself, we are in the "bounce" at the moment, lending has gone from virtually flat out no caution to massive over caution.

Things are "broken" however we are in a re-adjustment phase, the human species has a remarkable ability to adjust to the circumstances.

I also think it's pretty pointless to speculate when the bottom of the market will be, there are so many variables that it's difficult to know what will happen next week, not alone in a year or so .. 18 months ago I don't think anybody thought Northern Rock, Iceland, HBOS, Fannie May and Freddie Mac to name a few would be needing assistance.... The answer is .. who knows.

mustrum_ridcully

June 2010

I don't know if someone has mentioned this or not but a lot of the bears were wrong about about 2003/4/5/6/7 being the year of the great HPC. I suspect quite a few bulls could be equally wrong.

The one thing I think some bears never took into consideration when predicting the crash (and some bulls seem to be doing the same) is momentum and public sentiment (the two go hand in hand).

If it hadn't been for the credit crunch I guess house prices might even still be going up very slowly or stagnating - higher inflation and hence high interest rates would have cooled the market. Prices might have started going down in 2009 as things like fuel would bite even more as they'd still be going up in price (a global downturn is one reason they've gone down in price).

It's a fair bet that 2009 will be a nasty year so any change in sentiment is likely to be slow particularly when people are very worried about their jobs. I've heard rumours about 1000 job losses to come at Honda's car plant, plus around 250 at a company that provides services to Honda. The domino effect when jobs are lost means we don't know what's around the corner. Things are grim, and low interest rates (~0%) didn't save Japan when things got grim.

Finally, it's actually quite funny reading the bullish posts as I now fully see why people with bearish tendancies looked a bit deranged 3 or 4 years ago