How far will prices fall in London?

pickledpink

RDB wrote: »

Can we forget how long it takes to get wherever in London.

This is all about house prices.

Also whoever started all this 80 or 90% drops?

I am sticking with my 50% down in London by the end of next year. Maybe the year after.

I base this on the fact that full effects of the crisis havent yet been shown.

Next year its going to be very hard to get a mortgage and reposetions are going to be everywhere.

If someone disagrees please give reasons.

Some properties in London could drop by 50% - but it would be a tiny minority.

On PropertySnake you'll find that price drops in London vary enormously depending on the area and property.

Some properties in London have fallen by just 2%, whilst a handful have fallen by 40%. The average drop this year has been around 12% - which was forecast - and has come true.

I would say that some properties may drop a further 12% or so before they plateau and begin to rise again.

What people shouldn't lose sight of is the fact that many homeowners are not marketing their properties now - they're holding out for a good few years' - so it's only the people who really need to move who are marketing their properties as cheaply as possible. And just as everything has a ceiling - so it does a floor.

House prices can only rise so much - and they can only drop so much. That's a FACT many of you don't seem to be aware of.

pickledpink

P.S.

Trafiic flow in London has improved by 30%.

Another FACT!

And I have driven from Dulwich to the West End in 10 minutes (OK - it was late at night) but that's all it takes at that hour.:p

chewmylegoff

wolfman wrote: »

Hmmm I guess it all depends when. I'd like to see you do it in that time on a weekend night, or during rush hour.

And I don't think it was a stupid statement. I've personally found very little change. There are more buses, bus lanes, hybrid cars go free, etc... the traffic seems the same to me (at least going to work and coming home).

the traffic in central london got much better for a while when they bought in the first congestion charging scheme. it then got progressively worse again over time. as soon as they opened it up to cover west london i reckon it became even worse than it used to be before the congestion charge came in.

mind you, i'm only judging this on how long on average the 17 took to get from cannon street to grays inn road at 8.30 in the morning - once they opened up the second congestion charging zone it became quicker to walk than get the bus, presumably because a load of idiots in chelsea tractors could drive into central london for 10% of the cost they previously had to pay (and no it wasn't roadworks).

i'm sure you could drive from dulwich village to the west end in 10 minutes, at about 3am on a sunday.

RDB

neverdespairgirl wrote: »

A lot of good property in London isn't selling, though - price is key.

Dulwich Village isn't 20 mins from the West End, though. It's a 10 minute walk to North Dulwich station from your RM link, then 15 minutes to London Bridge (by no stretch of the imagination is that the West End, and the trains terminate at London Bridge).

Then you'd take the jubilee line to Green Park, and the Victoria line to Oxford Circus (seems a reasonable bit of the West End to pick) which would take another 15 minutes.

So it's more like 50 minutes to the West End than 20.

Picklepink can you just admit you were wrong and apologise so we can move on.

The point is that all over the country (London included) house sales are hardly happening at all. Its obvious this will happen first then prices will crash when people become desperate. Knowone in their right mind would buy a house anywhere at the moment when its so obvious that prices will so much lower next year.

pickledpink

neverdespairgirl wrote: »

<sigh>

that'll be another apology you owe me, then:

Traffic in the morning rush hour is now slower than before Ken Livingstone brought in the congestion charge.
Transport for London figures also show that journey times during the day and evening peak in central London have increased, after initially falling.


http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23419705-details/Rush-hour+is+slower+than+before+C-charge/article.do

That's a skewed article; it's recent roadworks which are slowing the traffic.

And why are you going on about the fact I can drive to the West End from Dulwich in 10 minutes? I've done it many times - at night.

Obviously it will take longer in the rush hour - you'd have to be a dunce not to realise that!:D

I suppose that it takes your dad - living just outside New Cross - about 2 hours to pop in for a cuppa with you then?:rotfl: Terrible cloggy traffic round the Ele you know!:rotfl:

Bargain_Rzl

Sorry to go off topic but just had to reply to this:

beingjdc wrote: »

I am tempted to say something about it taking me an hour to get from Elephant to Bricklayers last Tuesday night, but I guess that's just outside the Zone...

To be fair, that was quite exceptional. Usually that stretch takes 10 minutes maximum, in rush hour traffic.

I wonder if you were on the same bus as I was that evening - I was on a 363. There had been an accident on the roundabout, another further down the OKR outside Tesco, and another on Trafalgar Avenue just as cars started to try and take a detour down that way. I wonder if there was some kind of problem further down, at New Cross Gate, too - because the traffic was solid all the way down to both Peckham and New Cross.

But that is NOT the norm, as you probably know. The NKR can get a bit congested at that time of day, but the OKR is generally pretty free-flowing until you get down to New Cross.

Conrad

fc123 wrote: »

This interest rate cut has really changed everything for us...decisions made 4 weeks ago now seem not right.
Our mortgage is now 3.49%.....it's never been so low.

This whole crunch is so difficult to navigate through...things keep changing and the whole feeling of ''unsureness'' (I know that's not a word...I can't think of the right one) is really making things more complicated.

I see these lower rates wringing the remaing falls out of the system quite quickly. Retail rates are gradually falling, which means people seek higher returns than cash can provide and owning gets relatively cheaper compared to renting.
Unemployment I do not think will get too much higher, afterall, are there not some 900,000 job vacancies?

But I'm no bull, I'm an optimistic pessimist:cool: . Mortgage lending is still far to low to reverse the falls, but that could change very quickly. Just seen a 2 bed house that has a gross yield of about 9%. Cash in the Bank earns about 2%, mmmmmm

chucky

RDB wrote: »

Picklepink can you just admit you were wrong and apologise so we can move on.

The point is that all over the country (London included) house sales are hardly happening at all. Its obvious this will happen first then prices will crash when people become desperate. Knowone in their right mind would buy a house anywhere at the moment when its so obvious that prices will so much lower next year.

most people do not need to sell and do not want to sell due to negative equity or believe that they can get a better price in the future.

how will prices drop by 50% if there are minimal volumes and they do not need to sell?

even if there are job losses in London there will always be more job opportunities that will mask these job losses and most people will be re-employed.

in addition there is much more foreign investment in property in London than anywhere in the UK - will they be desperate too?

stonethrower

Conrad wrote: »

I see these lower rates wringing the remaing falls out of the system quite quickly. Retail rates are gradually falling, which means people seek higher returns than cash can provide and owning gets relatively cheaper compared to renting.
Unemployment I do not think will get too much higher, afterall, are there not some 900,000 job vacancies?

But I'm no bull, I'm an optimistic pessimist:cool: . Mortgage lending is still far to low to reverse the falls, but that could change very quickly. Just seen a 2 bed house that has a gross yield of about 9%. Cash in the Bank earns about 2%, mmmmmm

Cant imagine that house was in london

pickledpink

It's only a handful of properties in London which have shown a significant drop - and they're the ones who are desperate to sell.

Most people don't need to sell - so they won't. Quite simple really.

That's why so few properties are on the market.;)