How far will prices fall in London?

drc

Just wondering how far people think prices will drop here in London? I know it's the UK financial hub and a lot of jobs here, hence demand for houses which pushes prices up, but surely since there are supposedly going to be (and have been) so many redundancies in the City this is going to have a knock-on effect on the demand for housing and prices will eventually go down?

Or is it just a case of wishful thinking on my part? How far, if at all, do you think prices in London will fall?

olly300

London is not one market.

For example the East end of London is cheaper than the West end.

Plus there are also foreign million and billionaires who buy property in London.

beingjdc

It's all quite hard to predict. I go by the futures market. On the HBOS index, average London prices peaked at £293k last Summer. We are now at around £255k. The last traded prices are £200k for December 2009, £182k for December 2010, and £194k for December 2011.

So if you believe that, 38%, peak to trough.

SGE1

It's a hard one to call. I think they've been dropping (property bee has made that much clear), but not by as much as the rest of the country, and properties do still sell.

I think as soon as mortgages become more available, the price drop will level off; I'm not sure redundancy makes much difference.

So all in all, I'm not massively optimistic that prices will drop significantly.

cells

min 15% fall next year in london imo

penguine

cells wrote: »

min 15% fall next year in london imo

Based on what?

I'm not disagreeing with you, and I'd personally like to see considerable price cuts in London property, just wondering what you're basing your opinion on.

penguine

SGE1 wrote: »

I think as soon as mortgages become more available, the price drop will level off; I'm not sure redundancy makes much difference.

Don't you think 2 million redundancies (that's one prediction I've heard) would make a difference in the property market? People without jobs have trouble getting mortgages, regardless of how many are available.

RDB

I am interested in N,London I think here prices have a lot further to fall.

With mass unemployment looming, I think all the experts 50% drops predictions are closer than preciously thought. They were saying 50% by 2011
http://jp.youtube.com/watch?v=QzvuS22HnSY

but now many are saying 50% drops are closer to end of 2009.

crazygaijin

I am also keeping my eyes on N,London. I have not yet seen price drops of any signifcance. Just the fact that houses are not selling.

I am going to wait for 50% drops I think this is realistic but not any time soon. Prices are going to be falling for years to come, and even then there will be those desperate to sell and will accept offers even lower.

All this talk about 80% Japanese style house price drops just wont happen in London, (maybe the rest of the country) but 50% down by end of next year.

My area of interest in still about 300K for a 3 bed. So I am waiting to get something like this :-

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-20003125.rsp?pa_n=1&tr_t=buy&mam_disp=true

- for about 150K.

Yoshua

This house looks great at the moment for 250K. I am looking to buy a house like this http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-11308149.rsp?pa_n=1&tr_t=buy&mam_disp=true for 125K.

Im not going to hold my breath though, I think minimum end of next year. But more likely prices wont be down 50% until 2010 even 2011.

After that prices will stay down for years. Its a buyer market for years yet.

Sonjja

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