The 70% club

StevieJ

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

I think 50% is more realistic because thats when the majority of value has already been lost and it becomes more a case of grab it while you can and just take any further losses.

This should apply to anyone who actually needs that house, location, etc and intends to live there 10 years or more. The more flighty parts of the market may be subject to greater fluctuations




Not really, not compared to somewhere like India. Apart from immigration maybe the most important change in britain is people living more separately, for all those divorces and less co habitation you have a massive increase in housing demand compared to how people use to live.

I think thats the real long trend forcing housing demand and the eventually saviour of the market, it does rely on people having money though because its basically a luxury or western world factor.
Falling prices shows people can make do with less space if they have to

What about people living longer, no one seems to mention that.

sabretoothtigger

Less important then birth rate but yep definitly a factor if it rises alot like it has. All positive pressure on house prices in the long term.

Im sure I saw a graph somewhere showing long term house prices, the overall rate of increase and how it compares to present prices.
Should be possible to work where the two meet, falls vs increase over time - unfortunately prices have only been falling over 1 year so that does not allow for much time to have the long term trend catch up at all


Here it is, very simple. Maybe someone can extend the lines/extrapolate



The lines will cross, 2010/2011




Dam pity no one stuck these graphs on the news at ten a few years back and basically said what the hell..
Only guy I can think off hand saying something in parliament and was basically shouted down was:
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/vincent-cable-be-warned--the-housing-market-is-about-to-crash-734586.html

joannaemmas

So my house I bought for 175000 a couple of month ago is only going to be worth 52500...

Just think...I could have paid that off in 3 years if i i had waited for the drop!

With an average income of £32,800 per household (in 05/06) per national statistics do you really think houses are going to be hanging around at that price?

Demand up=prices up again!

StevieJ

No comment :rotfl:

baby_boomer

Scotland on Sunday

"OVERALL, the latest plethora of data and survey evidence on the housing market do little to alleviate belief that prices are set to fall markedly further over the coming months. Indeed, even though mortgage lenders are largely passing on last week's 150 basis point interest rate cut by the Bank of England, the fundamentals for the housing market remain largely unfavourable."

Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at Global Insight

mystic_trev

joannaemmas wrote: »

So my house I bought for 175000 a couple of month ago is only going to be worth 52500...

Just think...I could have paid that off in 3 years if i i had waited for the drop!

With an average income of £32,800 per household (in 05/06) per national statistics do you really think houses are going to be hanging around at that price?

Demand up=prices up again!

No - But your home may well be worth a lot less by the end of next year. As for demand - forget it - there isn't any and it's likely to stay that why for quite a while!

joannaemmas

I'm not denying it will probably be worth an amount less-on that front I'd agree with you...but I thought this board was about them dropping 70% which is why I commmented on my thought on that :beer:

IveSeenTheLight

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Here it is, very simple. Maybe someone can extend the lines/extrapolate



The lines will cross, 2010/2011

I believe the lines will cross in 2009.
Probably by springtime

adr0ck

dopester wrote: »

Of course they will.

People in the 1950s, 1960s, 1970s ect still built houses you know. Builders may have earned like £2,500, £5,000, £10,000 for the work on each house, and paying employees... but that money went further in the economy of that time and afforded a standard of living.

Welcome to deflation. Get used to lower wages Brains, still being able to buy stuff, but less Audis and less holidays and less I-want-it-now, "bang it on the credit card", as we rebuild an economy of our own that works.

what a dopey post by dopester

you are seriously talking out of your.........

and showing that you have absolutely no idea whatsover about what you are talking about

in fairness though just incase you do know what your talking about lets give you a chance to prove it

please show us all how you can build a new home (3 bed 4 person home) to code for susutainable homes level 3 for £56k (must include all costs including land, overheads, profit etc)

i would love to know how you can do this (but you can't)

dopester

please show us all how you can build a new home (3 bed 4 person home) to code for susutainable homes level 3 for £56k (must include all costs including land, overheads, profit etc)

You might not be able to do so now - but you may easily be able to in 1 to 5 years time, as deflation takes hold. You are so used to inflation you just can't get your head around deflation.

Look at developers now... writing down the value of their land banks. It has only just begun. Deflation brings about lower wages (not for absolutely all) but also brings down the costs of other goods as well.

When there is less credit in the system, and less people with money about, the prices of goods in general (maybe not all imported goods) falls.

Values for items can be agreed by the market - but existing debts are real. That is why deflation might scare those who've lived the life of debt, if we move further into a deflationary environment and wages fall and prices fall as well.