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Guarduan/Reuters: BoE to cut to 1.5% in Dec
Comments
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BOE figures forcast infaltion next year is likely to be 1% or less. so your surgestion is sagnation coupled with nasty inflation
You are not a realist as you have only a care for one side of the argument the side you belive in.
Your ideaology of the situation points to you not being a realist, sorry.
So what's your realistic expectation then?--
Every pound less borrowed (to buy a house) is more than two pounds less to repay and more than three pounds less to earn, over the course of a typical mortgage.0 -
setmefree2 wrote: »The BOE forecast for inflation in Qtr 2 2009 is 1% (November review) which would suggest the forces of contraction are not as powerful as you suggest. Again time will tell.
Get a grip. They were very fearful of inflation for the first half of this year, where one in five of my posts since the beginning of the year has probably been about the deflationary crisis approaching.0 -
Can it end at the banks? No. The Government would have to come in to businesses around the country, and tell us how to do our jobs. You're cutting back on x-product? No no no. Order more of it now. It has become more expensive to source from Japan? Nevermind.. still order it, we will lend you more to pay for it, and also our banks will lend your customers money to pay for it at higher prices.
Then they can come in to the courts and enforce their new objectives there as well... get rid of the judiciary and install their own yes men to get their policies done.
The banks have to follow what the correct path to match the reality of the world, whilst learning some painful lessons for mistakes of the last 11 years.
Such has been the extent of bank nationalisations and part nationalisations that the government now have a direct say over more than 50% of UK residential mortgages, at least according to Jon Snow on C4 News a month or two back.--
Every pound less borrowed (to buy a house) is more than two pounds less to repay and more than three pounds less to earn, over the course of a typical mortgage.0 -
So what's your realistic expectation then?
House prices to keep falling next year.
Resession in banking, retail, and many service based setors for next year possibly coming to 0% growth last quarter next year.(bit of optimisum)
Interst rates to keep going down, low of 2.0% (possibly Less)
Infaltion to be below 2% by April 09.
Unenployment to keep rising throught next year.
Economic improvement starting 2010, housing stabalization starting 2010.
No exact forcast or fact as I am being realistic.;)0 -
I'm stuck with what point you are trying to make Really. Sorry.
Well if you are bearish or even pesimisstic in your ideology in what is going to happen you automatic stop becoming a realist as you only focus on what you belive to be true discounting positive data as incorect or even conspiricy.
EG !!!!!! posting only negative news to support his ideology stops him being a realist.
hope that makes sense.0 -
House prices to keep falling next year.
Resession in banking, retail, and many service based setors for next year possibly coming to 0% growth last quarter next year.(bit of optimisum)
Interst rates to keep going down, low of 2.0% (possibly Less)
Infaltion to be below 2% by April 09.
Unenployment to keep rising throught next year.
Economic improvement starting 2010, housing stabalization starting 2010. No exact forcast or fact as I am being realistic.
If we are in a deflationary environment overall, then any CPI represents stagflation.
In fact, if incomes drop faster than prices then it's exactly the same effect as stagflation - prices running away from people's ability to pay them.
So basically my 'best case' scenario isn't a million miles away from your 'realistic' scenario.--
Every pound less borrowed (to buy a house) is more than two pounds less to repay and more than three pounds less to earn, over the course of a typical mortgage.0 -
If we are in a deflationary environment overall, then any CPI represents stagflation.
In fact, if incomes drop faster than prices then it's exactly the same effect as stagflation - prices running away from people's ability to pay them.
So basically my 'best case' scenario isn't a million miles away from your 'realistic' scenario.
If you did not base your wording on negativeness eg Best Case, Nasty etc and included some positive input I would than class you from the outside as a realist.
But unfortunatly your neagtive wording does give away a pessimistic views at the moment.
Am I now forgiven as I am no longer ignored.;)0 -
If you did not base your wording on negativeness eg Best Case, Nasty etc and included some positive input I would than class you from the outside as a realist.
But unfortunatly your neagtive wording does give away a pessimistic views at the moment.
Am I now forgiven as I am no longer ignored.;)
You came clean on the Really2 thing - if you were interested in just trolling you'd have started a completely new account.--
Every pound less borrowed (to buy a house) is more than two pounds less to repay and more than three pounds less to earn, over the course of a typical mortgage.0 -
You came clean on the Really2 thing - if you were interested in just trolling you'd have started a completely new account.
If I was trolling I would just call people a XXXX or somting I like to hear what people think. i know what you think and would not rail road over you saying your a XXXX for thinking what you do as I know it is what you belive will happen.
I have always used psychology and sociology to help make decisions.
I always have an idea what I am going to do but will then tweek what I am going to do with what I see the masses think.
(Trying not to sound like a pompus @ss)
But looking at how you see thing I would call the bottom when people I consider bearish but not as bearish as you start to buy as that will mean the majority had turned. (but not trying to give advice but that is how I would see your best chance of catching the bottom)
PS the terminally dumb Eg the people who think house price only go up are the same people who will think houses only go down. They will not turn until most probably 2-3 months of HPI as they will need visual confirmation of the bottom. But they then then risk the trap of not wanting to pay £XX,XXXX thus chasing housing up all the way back to rampent hpi:rolleyes: .
My decision to purchase was just based on my current circumstances and where I saw the market going then getting peoples opinions like on here and HPC.
I then purchased at a price I was happy with as I a very impatient realist.;)
It would be interesting to know on how you have based your view of buying back, not to prove if I am right or wrong on how you think but just to see what indicator you will use.
PS Sorry but i cant resist tounge in cheek jokes so sorry if you think I am taking the pee somtimes but I am just having a bit of banter usualy.0
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