Unemployment reaches 11-year high

Cannon_Fodder

can't leave out http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/7724551.stm

dopester

Mitchaa... I get the impression your really believe your area has immunity against a national and global economic downturn.

For ages I've been repeatedly warning of the coming surge in unemployment. It isn't some sort of unexpected surprise. It has only just started.

Unfortunately we are going to see some instances of some grinding poverty, tragic tales, and a big drop in standards of living for many - and alas... a massive crash in house prices.

May:

dopester wrote: »

Well considering as I expect mass-unemployment in the near future... I'm not too bothered about all these yields on crummy BTLs in backwater towns.

And Gen has on a few occasions given his reasoning why the North East won't escape, in part due to the economy being so reliant on Government spending, which is won't be able to sustain.

When unemployment or pay-cuts begin to hit your area, and people you know, or even yourself but I don't wish it upon you.. I hope you will take some time to reflect that there are broader themes crashing out than all this narrow focusing on one area with the expectation it can not be affected.

Cannon_Fodder

There have "always" been hundreds of thousands of vacancies. Its part of the fluid nature of the subject.

Just as there are regional differences in house price, there will be regional differences in unemployment, fair enough.

But it is starting to hit everywhere... http://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/Article.aspx/934785.

IveSeenTheLight

dopester wrote: »

And Gen has on a few occasions given his reasoning why the North East won't escape, in part due to the economy being so reliant on Government spending, which is won't be able to sustain.

To be fair, Generali was refering to the NE of England, not the NE of Scotland

mitchaa

Perhaps, perhaps not dopester.

However on the basis that the industry i work in and its expertise is severely undermanned i can only assume my job is 110% safe.

The company i work for is a worldwide company and there are only ever artcles on the companies intranet of new bases starting up across the world. We have just recently secured another 25yr contract with 1 of the worlds largest companies (begins with S and ends with L )

Not every job is bomb proof no and im not stupid. I know the country is in a little bit of trouble just now but if you are suitably qualified in other areas you leave the door open to many options. I am confident if i was made redundant in this role, i would have enough time in my redundancy notice period just to walk into another job without ever coming unemployed. (1 month is plenty of time to find another job, although with most jobs you would be given a 2-3 month warning)

If you are a bricklayer or a joiner or a 1 professioned person then you may struggle but if you have a broader profession range then there are lots of different paths to go down. The engineering industry is massive in all respects.

Those in the military/NHS/emergency services/teachers, even most high street retail services (Tesco/Currys/Debenhams etc etc) pretty much have safe jobs as do many other professions.

If the area you live in has something to offer then employment in that area will remain better than in other areas. if you live in a part of the country that does not offer a lot, Stoke on trent for example then people there may suffer.

Drivers always need to fill up their cars and people always need to heat their homes, that makes the industry i work in recession proof especially when it is already severely undermanned.

It may seem arrogant that i am thinking like this but then im not doom and gloom and thinking the world is going to end everytime the 6 o'clock bbc news is broadcast

Sit tight and ride the storm and hope to god you have a profession where there is a real requirement for it.

mitchaa

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

There have "always" been hundreds of thousands of vacancies. Its part of the fluid nature of the subject.

Just as there are regional differences in house price, there will be regional differences in unemployment, fair enough.

But it is starting to hit everywhere... http://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/Article.aspx/934785.

I'll not argue with that but small numbers like this does not indicate that an area may or may not be struggling. Stewart Milne homes made 300 or so builders in the Aberdeen area redundant recently but that is hardly susrprising giving the current economic climate, just like its not strange that estate agents are also going out of business (About time:D )

The area as a whole is certainly not recession proof and i have never once claimed it was. Those in the construction industry, finance industry, the estate agents are going to get hit hard no matter where you live in the country. No-where is immune from this

However....

The new £1bn Donald Trump golf resort only strengthens Aberdeens stance that it will cope well overall as this alone will create a few thousand new jobs in the area.

This thread is not about Aberdeen though.

JayScottGreenspan

mitchaa, I've had a quick look on the UK National Stats site and it appears that total employment has not fallen as quickly as unemployment has risen, so there may be some truth in what you say.

However, everything points to unemployment getting much worse. The truth is that the overwhelming majority do not lose their jobs in a recession, but everyone ends up paying for it in the end. All that lost tax revenue has to be paid back one day - and it'll be you and I they'll clobber for it.

ad9898_3

Well one thing is for sure, with unemployment at an 11 year high, with only one quarter of measured negative growth and BoE expecting negative growth all through 2009, house prices have zero chance of any growth now until at least 2012.

We are 15.5% off peak now, with todays news I expect house prices come off a minimum of 40% and probably 50%

Interest rates are impotent now, its only good for remortgaging and even that may slowly come to an end with the 60% LTV required for the best rates. BTL is dead, on the scale that has propped the market up for the past 7 years.

kennyboy66_2

mustrum_ridcully wrote: »

Oh and let us not ignore the numbers of Poles etc.who are leaving our sinking ship.

I don't know how many of the estimated 1 million Poles etc. have left. But let us assume that a fair few of those who left went of their own accord (and not because they've been made redundant) that means that they could be either creating a new job vacancy or at least preventing a redundancy.

This means that our E. European friends leaving could in fact be masking how bad things really are - for the time being at least. .

Leaving aside the house price angle, I would see "Poles" leaving as a bad thing in general. I would expect they added to aggregate demand overall, although some were probably sending money back home. They are/were a population of relatively young workers helping to support our vast welfare state.

I can't really find a way of thinking that Poles leaving is "masking" how bad things are.

There has had to have been an element where some of the recent economic growth has come as a result of immigration (part of the reason US & Oz are sucessful).
It seems plausible that this will go into reverse.

IveSeenTheLight

mitchaa wrote: »

Stewart Milne homes made 300 or so builders in the Aberdeen area redundant recently

I've heard that he has admitted behind closed doors that he knows he will have a skills shortage when the market changes.

Hearsay though, always taken with a pinch of salt