Nationwide Chief: House prices to fall through 2009 into 2010

monkeymaster

mewbie wrote: »

Right you lot, time for some bear stuff. Even !!!!!! is talking about fall and then recover. I don't read it like that. I read it as fall, to sensible level. And stay there.

We are coming down from a huge bubble. An artifical bubble of nonsensical over priced housing stock. The fall has no reason to suddenly bounce back up into stupid mode. So the 'recover' element is a red herring.

House prices are recovering at present. They are recovering back to more normal levels, still a long way to go.

If you accept we have been in a bubble, as I think most people with half a brain cell do, then you need to understand that bubbles do not reinflate. They do not 'recover' their overpriced insanity.

Think tulips, South Sea, dot com, vintage cars, whisky barrels and ostriches. And please - don't bother with what goes down will eventually go back up. It will not necessarily be in your lifetimes.

ed: what happened to the M&W jokes Mewbie.. you're fired.

No one's talking about timescales but one thing is clear. Markets go up and they go down, they don't stay flat. So it's logical to assume that prices will rise again - but that might be gains of a couple of percent in 5 years after prices have fallen another 40%.

ad9898_3

StevieJ wrote: »

How can you say that some people think it will be 3 when it has already dropped by more than that dip shown, BTW I wonder why the scale starts at 50k :rolleyes:.

No way Steve, you're not saying prices have dropped are you ?:D.

drbeat

Graph 2 is the likely outcome in my opinion. Prices will return to what they were before the wholesale/debt-repackaging/self-cert/lend-to-anyone-with-a-pulse era.

HammersFan

!!!!!!? wrote: »

Yes, because everyone is like the wallies you see on Location x3 searching for their 'dream home' etc. etc. blah blah.

And by definition, when someone who is currently a bear decides to buy, they'll be bullish on the market. If they were still bearish about the market they wouldn't be buying at all.

You seem to have missed the point that bull/bear is just a reflection of how you see the market going, not some kind of religion or philosophy of life.

I don't agree with that at all. I think you over-generalise a little and view house-buying from the perspective of a (single?) person who has very few considerations other than price when buying.

westv

Graph 1 tends to tie in with how the graph has developed historically but that could, of course, mean nothing.

StevieJ

ad9898 wrote: »

No way Steve, you're not saying prices have dropped are you ?:D.

Yes, they have dropped according to the Land Registry, not quite 70% yet but there you go.

Kez100

!!!!!!? wrote: »

Not too much skill required in getting a house near the bottom of the market - unless there's a sudden inflationary spurt in the economy of course. Houses will take a long time to recover value once they hit the trough so just buy once the prices have stopped dropping and are scraping along for a few months. The biggest danger is getting caught in a 'bull trap' and buying and then watching it fall considerably further IMO.

We were caught like that in 1991. I think prices rose for three months or so and we bought bang smack in the middle of that. Ended up losing 10% when we sold in 1994.

Paul_N_4

StevieJ wrote: »

!!!!!! do you get at least from out of that statement?

Firstly, what does that 'sentence' actually mean??? It reads: "What the **** do you get at least from out of that statement"

But I'll hazard a guess.

Secondly, the part in my post where I use the words "at least" are not within quotation marks meaning that they are not part of anything written in the article. They are also preceeded by the words "that would suggest" (with suggest being the operative word), which would mean that it is opinion, not fact.

Beale says he expects prices to fall through 2009 and possibly into 2010. My interpretation of that statement, which I suggested in my post, was that he expected prices to fall right to the end part of 2009 in order to "possibly" extend into 2010. Certainly not the springtime as you suggested.

Thirdly, I've read a few of your posts recently and you seem to get quite hot under the collar about house prices falling. Why is all this talk of house prices falling so painful for you?

P.S (haven't looked at your past posts so don't know if you've recently bought or are invested in property).

dopester

!!!!!!? wrote: »

You get the idea.

Hopefully they won't do that, because that path leads to certain absolute ruin. I'm not worried about inflation. Infact I've closed one savings account and now have a fair stash of real cash hidden away out of the system, I'm so confident that inflation is no risk - but deflation absolutely is.

UK Gov will cut liabilities and obligations, including NHS, military spending, highways and roads (leaving it to privatisation) and school funding, and benefits... all the stuff that everyone hates me projecting about. After being beaten back by the markets from madcap plans, money will get more valuable.. not less.