Grauniad: Prices could be 40% off peak by 2010

WTF?_2

dopester wrote: »

Suddenly I feel guilty for a little fib. My bank did "upgrade" me to private banking, but it seems only the same as my existing account was, with no flashy benefits, other than occasional fancy letters to get me to come in to the branch to review products which I fear is an earner for them instead of me.

However they aren't really on alert for me for distressed property at near free prices - I made that bit up - but I can half-imagine that those with a bit of cash will call the shots.

In deflation, cash is king and debt is disastrous.

Which is precisely why the gang of chimps running the Western economies will raze them with hyperinflation before willingly letting real deflation happen. Our governments are in more debt than even the general population. They'll chose a course that evaporates their sovereign debt (and bails out the banks balance sheets) before they allow deflation.

Unless of course they fail to stop it. I don't think that they will - these days money is mostly bits on a hard drive somewhere. Dead easy to inflate the supply until money becomes meaningless.

The trick for the would be house buyer will be to find the window of opportunity where prices have deflated to their max extent and all the inflationary measures are in place (close to zero percent rates, liquidity flooding the market). Inflation won't nice but it'll be a lot more bearable when you have a wholly-owned property.

carolt

StevieJ wrote: »

There are some great comments there.

I said

' Wrong, bad news for anyone who takes this seriously, futures contract are subject to the same variability as anything else, look at forward Libor rates I can assure you that is going to change'

And Carol said

'Oh come in Stevie, you don't really believe that any more than I do'

Oh my goodness, he got it right once!

Well fall over backwards!

It won't happen again, though.

Don't get too excited.

StevieJ

carolt wrote: »

Oh my goodness, he got it right once!

Well fall over backwards!

It won't happen again, though.

Don't get too excited.

Thanks very much Carol, I doff my cap.

chucky

!!!!!!? wrote: »

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/oct/14/housingmarket


No need to rush to get a bargain before the market recovers, if this guy is right.

haha - an article written in October and still get's a new thread.

what an excuse of a very desperate man

carolt

What, like pickledpink double-posting all her threads, you mean?

dervish

StevieJ wrote: »

Have you run out of articles and are now into recycling, a strange feeling of deja vu.

This is a bulletin board.

Without posts like this we would have nothing to discuss.

Are you advocating censorship?

pizzagirl

dervish wrote: »

This is a bulletin board.

Without posts like this we would have nothing to discuss.

Are you advocating censorship?

All stevie ever posts is :rotfl:. An absolute timewaster IMHO

WTF?_2

dervish wrote: »

This is a bulletin board.

Without posts like this we would have nothing to discuss.

Are you advocating censorship?

To be fair, I failed to notice that the article had already been discussed and reposted it.

But it's an important point that people posting articles here often take criticism from the 'bulls'. It's like they think that discussing or highlighting some news makes it happen or something. IMO the more discussion and dissemination of news, the better. It was also nigh on essential up until the point the press 'turned' about 9 months or so back...


... The thing about the mainstream media is that they just go with the popular flow - they have to sell papers or attract viewers. Hence, when the view was 'housing is a one way bet' they tailored their stories to reflect that and ignored a lot of the warning signs. There was accurate news that warned of the crash out there but you had to really look for it.

baby_boomer

Independent - We've just had our "Wyle E Coyote moment"

That's when the guy runs over the cliff. There's nothing to support him. But he only starts to plummet after he looks down and realises this. The BofE has just looked down.

"....House prices now seem set to decline through 2010, only starting to recover in 2011 or maybe even 2012. That will further depress things. And as growth gradually resumes, much of it will be absorbed by the Government as it tries to curb its deficit and move back towards balance or eventually some sort of surplus. The combination of the Brown spending spree and the collapse in tax revenues will hang over the country for the best part of a decade. [Government is currently spending 10p for ever 8p coming in.] To be realistic, we have to accept that UK living standards will not rise much for perhaps five years...."

Hamish McRae thinks it could be like the 1950s.

"..what might a world of very low official interest rates (but very high budget deficits) feel like?.."

"...Official interest rates will be low but access to credit will be restricted and prices may well fall for a period. So people and companies with cash will be in a strong position vis-à-vis those without. They will obviously be able to buy good assets from distressed sellers but I think there will be a more subtle change than that in that anyone with cash will be hunting for opportunities that offer a better return than that available from the bank or the Government. But business opportunities will be limited by the general deflation..."

StevieJ

dervish wrote: »

This is a bulletin board.

Without posts like this we would have nothing to discuss.

Are you advocating censorship?

I know it is difficult but please try to keep up.

You to Pizzagirl