The Last 5 Major Uk Recessions

WTF?_2

kennyboy66 wrote: »

1) I thought that the UK has run a trade deficit in 'visibles' since the 1971
2) We were a net importer of oil until about 1980
3) It is invisibles, where the UK has consistently had a surplus.

I don't think we could "handle" stagflation in the 70's at all - I am surprised that you would say that. In fact, although the trigger for the dismal 70's was the 2 oil price shocks, it was exactly because of wage rate spirals that inflation became engrained.

The wage rate spirals could be ascribed to high union membership, inflexible labour force, poor management, weak government or high relative employment.

I have never seen it said before that the high level of exports "allowed" employers to pay their employers more.

You make it sound almost like a benign environment. I thought you were old enough to have remembered what it was like.

It was apparently very benign for mortgage holders. Relatively high levels of employment (compared to today) and real inflation (entailing increasing salaries) eroding away capital debt. That's probably where the modern myth of it always being a good idea to buy a house comes from.

It's a simple fact that Britain was better positioned to get the upside of a collapsing currency (benefits to exports) than it is today (we import more than we export and a lot of the economy depends on consumers buying said imports and supporting the retail sector).

And no, I wasn't old enough in the 70s to take in the full effects. But I do remember things being a lot more austere ... however our recent 'wealth' as a nation has largely been based on the lie of cheap and easy credit and even a return to levels of the 80s (or even early 90s) will come as shock to the 20-somethings.

Realy

MissMoneypenny wrote: »

If they can keep their job or find another job with the same wage. Hard times are coming.

On this thread, an IT contractor has lost his well paid job and could only find a lower paid job, which is giving his poor family all sorts of financial problems with their mortgage.
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?p=15548825#post15548825

But if he had a mortgage lower rates would help.

Also Lower rates to fight deflation.

StevieJ

kennyboy66 wrote: »

1) I thought that the UK has run a trade deficit in 'visibles' since the 1971
2) We were a net importer of oil until about 1980
3) It is invisibles, where the UK has consistently had a surplus.

I don't think we could "handle" stagflation in the 70's at all - I am surprised that you would say that. In fact, although the trigger for the dismal 70's was the 2 oil price shocks, it was exactly because of wage rate spirals that inflation became engrained.

The wage rate spirals could be ascribed to high union membership, inflexible labour force, poor management, weak government or high relative employment.

I have never seen it said before that the high level of exports "allowed" employers to pay their employers more.

You make it sound almost like a benign environment. I thought you were old enough to have remembered what it was like.

At least they are not turning the lights,heating and oh no Telly off yet.

WTF?_2

StevieJ wrote: »

I fill up with the posh Shell super stuff and it costs me less than a quid a litre.

Take it up with the AA -though since those prices represent an average across the whole of the UK they are probably more representative than your locality.

MissMoneypenny

Realy wrote: »

But if he had a mortgage lower rates would help.

If you read the thread you will see that he struggled to find another job for 4 months and got into mortgage arrears. So he now has to pay his mortgage, some arrears monthly, plus arrear charges of £55 per month. Plus the family have to live on 1/3 of his previous salary.

Lower interest rates will help those who can keep their job, but not those who will lose their jobs. This recession is a bad thing for most people, not a good thing, as many will lose their jobs.

Realy

MissMoneypenny wrote: »

If you read the thread you will see that he struggled to find another job for 4 months and got into mortgage arrears. So he now has to pay his mortgage, some arrears monthly, plus arrear charges of £55 per month. Plus the family have to live on 1/3 of his previous salary.

Lower interest rates will help those who can keep their job, but not those who will lose their jobs. This recession is a bad thing for most people, not a good thing, as many will lose their jobs.

Lower rates will help retain jobs, lowering business costs.

What are you saying rates should go up? thus making more people redundent?

Also he is a contractual worker you should keep a massive buffer if you are one as you could be without a contract for years!
What is your point exactly? I don' think you know!

DID ANY ONE SAY RECESSION WAS A GOOD THING!
PS Recession is not bad for most (it is not good) what an extra 2% unenployed not the majority is it?

MissMoneypenny

Realy wrote: »

Lower rates will help retain jobs, lowering business costs.

What are you saying rates should go up? thus making more people redundent?

Also he is a contractual worker you should keep a massive buffer if you are one as you could be without a contract for years!
What is your point exactly?

My point is that people who are thinking how easy it will be pay off their mortgage debt, might not have a job to service that debt. Or they may have to take a massive pay cut in order to survive, which will mean that they are going to struggle to pay their debt, even with lower interest rates.

I'm not in favour of high rates, but those who think that lower rates will be a magic wand that will fix everything, are going to get a shock. Jobs will go. This recession is going to be a bad one.

Realy

MissMoneypenny wrote: »

My point is that people who are thinking how easy it will be pay off their mortgage debt, might not have a job to service that debt. Or they may have to take a massive pay cut in order to survive, which will mean that they are going to struggle pay their debt, even with lower interest rates.

I'm not in favour of high rates, but those who think that lower rates will be a magic wand that will fix everything are going to get a shock. Jobs will go. This recession is going to be a bad one.

:rotfl:
No one as said that, why do HPC croud always go on about a magic wand.

WE ARE IN RECESSION RATES NEED TO GO DOWN FOR THE STABILITY OF OUR BUSIESSES!.(even your saviour Vince Cable says so)

Jobs will go but the forever moaning of the HPC crowd wising for higher rates so more people become redundant is beyond belief.
You may wish for someone to lose their home so you can get it cheap but I don't I want as many people to retain their job as possible.

Dress it up how you wish but it is plain to see what you want like so many other.:rolleyes:

chucky

MissMoneypenny wrote: »

My point is that people who are thinking how easy it will be pay off their mortgage debt, might not have a job to service that debt. Or they may have to take a massive pay cut in order to survive, which will mean that they are going to struggle to pay their debt, even with lower interest rates.

I'm not in favour of high rates, but those who think that lower rates will be a magic wand that will fix everything, are going to get a shock. Jobs will go. This recession is going to be a bad one.

all things being equal i'd rather low rates and having a job than high rates and having or not having a job.

low rates are not a magic wand but will make things much easier for those in debt.

MissMoneypenny

Realy wrote: »

What is your point exactly? I don' think you know!

DID ANY ONE SAY RECESSION WAS A GOOD THING!
PS Recession is not bad for most (it is not good) what an extra 2% unenployed not the majority is it?

I see you have added a bit. I do know what my point was and I hope I have made this clearer in my previous post, so that you can understand.