Halifax quarterly figures out - and they're bad

poppy10_2

• House prices declined by 5.2% in the third quarter of 2008. This was almost identical to the 5.1% fall in Q2, suggesting the trend rate of decline may be beginning to stabilize :rotfl:
• House prices in Q3 were 12.4% lower than a year ago
• There are significant regional variations in this figure, ranging from -6% in Scotland to -23% in Northern Ireland
• All regions have recorded at least a doubling in prices over the last decade. Prices in NI trebled between 2002 and 2007
• The average house price is below the £175,000 stamp duty threshold in all regions except London and the South East/West

Linky (word document)
Apologies if already posted.

poppy10_2

Wales is down 12.5% in this quarter alone!

Norn Iron still has a higher average house price (£173,000) than any other region outside London and the South East/West. Even after their 23% drop this year, they've still got a long way to fall until they inevitably hit the bottom of the table again. Average earnings in NI (£26732) are way below the national average (£33736.) Dumpsville.

See the report for your region here:
http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/quarterlyregionalcomments.asp

LilacPixie

Scotland down 2.1% in q3. Average HP is 134,380 with 2007 average earnings 30150. Still a bit to fall up here but not a great deal IMO. Stagnentation will hit hardest up here I think. Wages will rise house prices won't.

poppy10_2

LOL, is that why Salmond has his begging bowl out?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/scotland/3236706/Government-rejects-Alex-Salmonds-billion-pound-demand-for-the-Scottish-economy.html

WTF?_2

poppy10 wrote: »

Average earnings in NI (£26732) are way below the national average (£33736.) Dumpsville.

Wooah! - national average is £33k?? I thought it was more like £25k?

poppy10_2

!!!!!!? wrote: »

Wooah! - national average is £33k?? I thought it was more like £25k?

It is. I was using Nationwide's own figures for consistency - they take the average only for "adult males in full time employment who have been in the same job for at least a year", thus excluding women, part-time workers and temporary/short-term contract workers.

According to Office of National Statistice, the average salary for those in work is £25,550, and the median is £20,263.

Generali

FWIW, I think that average (median) household income (not wages) is £35k pa.

The average household income will never afford the average house as the average household income includes pensionners, many of whom don't have to pay rent/mortgage. Also students etc.

baileysbattlebus

poppy10 wrote: »

• House prices declined by 5.2% in the third quarter of 2008. This was almost identical to the 5.1% fall in Q2, suggesting the trend rate of decline may be beginning to stabilize :rotfl:
• House prices in Q3 were 12.4% lower than a year ago
• There are significant regional variations in this figure, ranging from -6% in Scotland to -23% in Northern Ireland
• All regions have recorded at least a doubling in prices over the last decade. Prices in NI trebled between 2002 and 2007
• The average house price is below the £175,000 stamp duty threshold in all regions except London and the South East/West

Linky (word document)
Apologies if already posted.

I thought I'd put this link on out of interest about Northern Ireland ,it's not HBOS or Nationwide and covers most of the housing transactions in NI.

I'd be interested in your thoughts.

It's for Q2, I'm not sure when Q3 figures will be out. It makes interesting reading. It's based on sale prices - not mortgage offers. It's quite a hefty report.

http://rpp.ulster.ac.uk/research/reports/q2-2008.pdf

moanymoany

poppy10 wrote: »

LOL, is that why Salmond has his begging bowl out?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/scotland/3236706/Government-rejects-Alex-Salmonds-billion-pound-demand-for-the-Scottish-economy.html

All very different from when they were laughing up their sleeves because they had free prescriptions, residential care, better GP services etc. etc.

HammersFan

Generali wrote: »

FWIW, I think that average (median) household income (not wages) is £35k pa.

The average household income will never afford the average house as the average household income includes pensionners, many of whom don't have to pay rent/mortgage. Also students etc.

This is interesting (thanks). I wonder what it is when those groups are excluded i.e. what the 'typical' mortgage-having household earns? This might go some way to explaining 'affordability' less hyterically than it is often defined on here.

kennyboy66_2

Someone in the next few years is going to have to stem the tide of government spending. When this happens, I would guess from 2010 onwards, then the choices that Scotland have to make are going to be much harsher.
Just as they have benefited from the Barnett formula, any cuts in public spending will have a larger impact in Scotland.