Excellent article about house bubbles in todays Guardian

Realy

carolt wrote: »

I appreciate your points, and think it is impossible to quantify which country is 'worse' in the !!!!, but consider:

- inflated prices on new builds - buyers defacto borrowing 120% or whatever
- UK prices rose higher thus have further to fall
- prevalence of self-cert here (yes, my example was personal, but stuff I've read on here and elsewhere suggests I was hardly a one-off, I think the full scale remains a scandal waiting to be uncovered)
- can't see why all those on self-cert would have defaulted earlier, just coming off rates now. Plus recession yet to kick in. Watch this space over the next few months!

Agree with most but all of that is also true of the US also (they are only just entering recession also).
They have neve done a housing bubble before but as usual it was bigger and better than anyone elses.
I think what some people don't accept that the US are always going to say look at them they are worse just to make it "OK" for them to have done what they did.

carolt

Don't have figures to hand (anybody?) but UK house prices definitely rose higher than the US's, relative to all measures.

So would expect them to fall further. Makes sense to me.

Realy

carolt wrote: »

Don't have figures to hand (anybody?) but UK house prices definitely rose higher than the US's, relative to all measures.

So would expect them to fall further. Makes sense to me.

Well US has no comparison so it will be hard to do.
But to give you idea how stupid the US boom was their population per km2 is 33
The UK is 389 per km2

Comparables are hard to draw due to the effects of compertition and affordability per KM2

I have no doubt ours was bigger but sustainability is the key, prices will fall to a sustainable level and I dare say in the UK that will also be higher than the US.
Our prices will always be higher because of population densitiy.

neverdespairgirl

Generali wrote: »

Or are you claiming that the big banks were commiting criminal acts which are as yet undiscovered?

I wouldn't bet against a few Blue Arrow type skeletons falling out of closets, would you?

carolt

Realy wrote: »

Well US has no comparison so it will be hard to do.
But to give you idea how stupid the US boom was their population per km2 is 33
The UK is 389 per km2

Comparables are hard to draw due to the effects of compertition and affordability per KM2

I have no doubt ours was bigger but sustainability is the key, prices will fall to a sustainable level and I dare say in the UK that will also be higher than the US.
Our prices will always be higher because of population densitiy.

I meant higher in percentage terms, rather than in actual amounts.

Agree US prices will always be cheaper than UK prices.

Doesn't change the fact our boom was bigger.

Realy

carolt wrote: »

I meant higher in percentage terms, rather than in actual amounts.

Agree US prices will always be cheaper than UK prices.

Doesn't change the fact our boom was bigger.

No I agree but in reality the only thing that made a bubble in the US was stupid lending (they have never had one before).

We are great at housing bubbles, world leaders infact. I dare say in a few years time it will all start again.;)

Generali

neverdespairgirl wrote: »

I wouldn't bet against a few Blue Arrow type skeletons falling out of closets, would you?

I wouldn't be surprised in the least.

There's quite a long way to go however before there is proof that probably the most regulated private business sector in the country managed to commit a wholesale fraud (or whatever) under the noses of the regulator.