Nationwide -1.7% MoM. -12.4% YoY

TDS_2

'Nationwide said the pace of house price falls had stabilised'. It always impresses me how they find some good news for the housing market.

steadysaver

baby_boomer wrote: »

"Nationwide said the pace of house price falls had stabilised"

How can they possibly know this ? The graph shows a continuous downward line at a precipitous angle.

I think they may be talking about the annual drop. So what they really mean is:

"Thank God October is the last month where falls will replace 2007 rises in the annualised figures."

This is no comfort to anyone whose house will continue to fall in value, regardless of this statistic.

A steep monthly fall in November 2008 would still be a steep monthly fall, even if the annual rate becomes more "stable" :rotfl: .

I think they are saying that the MoM % fall is stabalising. for example if it dropped 1.7% for 4 months in a row... it is still dropping, but the drops are not getting any bigger or smaller, they are stabalising and the volatility in the falls is slowing..

Nice bit of spin really. You can do what ever you want with these stats if you were so inclined. If you changed the axis on the graph you could have what would appear to be a steady deline rather than the current shear cliff face we see on the bbc website.

baby_boomer

TDS wrote: »

'Nationwide said the pace of house price falls had stabilised'.

In fact it's unbelievably bad BBC reporting of Nationwide's statement. Maybe HIHM has been bombarding the BBC about their "doom & gloom" presentation of the housing market

What Nationwide actually said was.

"This may suggest the beginning of some stabilisation in the pace of house price falls"

How many caveats can Nationwide get in the first seven words of a sentence? :rotfl:

ad9898_3

The " decline has stabilised ":rotfl:, what a load of b**locks.

Let me get this straight, if you are in a plane and you have been in a "steep decline", when the captain comes over the radio and says " don't worry we are still going down but not any faster than we already were ", are you supposed to feel ok ??

Now I might be stupid but the way I see it you are still going to hit the ground at 500mph, which isn't any better than hitting it at 700mph, or am I missing something.

Declines are highly unlikely to get much quicker than 2% a month due to how big the market is. An oil tanker is bigger than speedboat but it won't be quicker.

obsessed_saver

ad9898, that's exactly that I thought when I read that line! :rotfl:
I need to go look what's the % fall from the peak house price.

ad44downey

PasturesNew wrote: »

London: 5%, £301,301

That must be a typo. Elsewhere in the article it clearly states that London prices dropped 9.4% annually

obsessed_saver

Peak house price according to Nationwide occured in Oct 2007 at £186,044.

From peak to Sept 2008 of £161,797, a drop of -£24,247, or 13.03% of peak price.

baby_boomer

Nationwide wrote:

This may suggest the beginning of some stabilisation in the pace of house price falls

Telegraph - Nationwide reports worst housing market falls on record

And what could reverse these?

Fionnuala Earley, chief economist at Nationwide, admitted that "we would need to see a significant shift in consumers' sentiment before we begin to see any real recovery in activity and subsequently house prices."

And where on earth is a "significant shift in consumers' sentiment" going to come from?

I could see a downward shift if the unemployment figures start to climb.

luvpump

ad9898 wrote: »

The " decline has stabilised ":rotfl:, what a load of b**locks.

Let me get this straight, if you are in a plane and you have been in a "steep decline", when the captain comes over the radio and says " don't worry we are still going down but not any faster than we already were ", are you supposed to feel ok ??

Now I might be stupid but the way I see it you are still going to hit the ground at 500mph, which isn't any better than hitting it at 700mph, or am I missing something.

Declines are highly unlikely to get much quicker than 2% a month due to how big the market is. An oil tanker is bigger than speedboat but it won't be quicker.

I Prefer Crock of Sxxt when refering to the BBC article

TDS_2

As a net saver rather than borrower, it hurts me to say this, but it's looking increasingly likely that a rate cut is coming this or next month...any thoughts?