We now enter the 'grey dismal' years says Robert Peston

ad9898_3

matbe wrote: »

Just trying to help where i can.

And i promise im going to bed soon.

I can only take so much doom and gloom.

I dont think there is much doom and gloom here really, I've been reading and posting here for about a month, nearly all the people here seem pretty financially savvy, good advice is given, most think huge amounts of debt is bad and if you think about whats happened in the last week I think we could say thats right

This board along with housepricecrash is trying to put its point across as far as the dangers of buying at the moment, lending stupid amounts of money on falling a asset, retorting to the huge amounts of s**t being pedaled by the government and some parts of the media that things are"fine", and it won't be long until we're back to "normal"

I do read the DFW board now and again, some of the stories on there are terrible especially people who through no fault of their own find themselves in the s**t due to job losses or divorce etc..

However there are a fare few who have just spent way beyond their means for no good reason other than they wanted the latest thing.. some of the debts are mind blowing 30, 40, 50k or more on credit cards etc, I just can't get my head round that. I think alot of their problems stem well beyond money.

But getting back to this board, throwing petty insults at people who post here doesn't do yourself any good in the eyes of anyone. I honestly think and I'm not patronising when I say this, but if some of the people from DFW came over and read some of the posts here, they would probably get a better connection with reality than being told everything will be ok. If you're income is a £1000 less than your outgoings you're not ok.

matbe

ad9898 wrote: »

I dont think there is much doom and gloom here really, I've been reading and posting here for about a month, nearly all the people here seem pretty financially savvy, good advice is given, most think huge amounts of debt is bad and if you think about whats happened in the last week I think we could say thats right

This board along with housepricecrash is trying to put its point across as far as the dangers of buying at the moment, lending stupid amounts of money on falling a asset, retorting to the huge amounts of s**t being pedaled by the government and some parts of the media that things are"fine", and it won't be long until we're back to "normal"

I do read the DFW board now and again, some of the stories on there are terrible especially people who through no fault of their own find themselves in the s**t due to job losses or divorce etc..

However there are a fare few who have just spent way beyond their means for no good reason other than they wanted the latest thing.. some of the debts are mind blowing 30, 40, 50k or more on credit cards etc, I just can't get my head round that. I think alot of their problems stem well beyond money.

But getting back to this board, throwing petty insults at people who post here doesn't do yourself any good in the eyes of anyone. I honestly think and I'm not patronising when I say this, but if some of the people from DFW came over and read some of the posts here, they would probably get a better connection with reality than being told everything will be ok. If you're income is a £1000 less than your outgoings you're not ok.

I couldn't agree more but how much spam have you invested in do you really believe we are going to end in food riots end of the world etc.

People will still be at work next week doing whatever job they do and the world will carry on regardless of whether people have put their money into gold or whatever they believe is safe.

This negative mentality has been going on all my life.

Russia will nuke you Bullsh1t
1st gulf war we are all doomed Bullsh1t
911 we are all doomed Bullsh1t
2nd gulf war we are all doomed Bullsh1t
Bird flu we are all doomed Bullsh1t
house prices falling we are all doomed Bullsh1t

There are many more, millenium, cern, nostradamus ,etc etc etc

people are too busy getting on with life to worry too much about such nonsense so house prices fall in ten years they will be having this conversation again and !!!!!! will still be getting his mum to lace up his boxing gloves to stop him abusing himself.

get on with your life you dont know what is around the corner.

matbe

Sorry must go to bed now i have to get up for work in morning, while their is such a thing. Next week i may be part of the land army forced to plant wheat to grow national bread to support the masses
Or i may be off to work as normal to support my family

P.S. Get a life losers!!!!

moanymoany

This is an interesting read. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/622acc9e-87f1-11dd-b114-0000779fd18c.html

A snippet:

"The real economic side of this financial crisis will be a severe US recession. Financial contagion, the strong euro, falling US imports, the bursting of European housing bubbles, high oil prices and a hawkish European Central Bank will lead to a recession in the eurozone, the UK and most advanced economies."

dopester

moanymoany wrote: »

This is an interesting read. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/622acc9e-87f1-11dd-b114-0000779fd18c.html

A snippet:

"The real economic side of this financial crisis will be a severe US recession. Financial contagion, the strong euro, falling US imports, the bursting of European housing bubbles, high oil prices and a hawkish European Central Bank will lead to a recession in the eurozone, the UK and most advanced economies."

Seems about right to me MM, although replace recession with depression. Although oil is not depression-proof, and a lot of countries demand will be affected.

Industry demand will slacken, and unemployment will probably chop the need for multiple vehicles per household, if any at all.

And the falls in UK house prices will create a similar grave system crisis as being experienced in the US.

S'funny how events of the past week haven't really seen any comebacks against those who've long warned of job-losses, pay-cuts, NHS and Highways cutbacks, and the like, of "wishing it to happen."

I guess heeding cautionary warnings is less preferable to stubborn fantasy-land beliefs that UK will be isolated from the fall-out and everything here will just be more-or-less nice and easy going.

EASY MONEY

When the credit default market began back in the mid-1990s, the transactions were simpler, more transparent affairs. Not all the sellers were insurance companies like AIG -- most were not. But the protection buyer usually knew the protection seller.

As it grew -- according to the industry's trade group, the credit default market grew to $46 trillion by the first half of 2007 from $631 billion in 2000 -- all that changed.

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN1837154020080918?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0

I wonder how much of this constant torrent of money, year after year, found its way to easy credit to hand out to inflate UK property market values?

With the whole structure of the lending having been proven to be flawed and unstable, we are in for one mother of a house price crash.

It is going to hurt us all, but I hope it hurts the BTL scum the most. Those who bought on margin in the boom, releasing imaginary "equity" to buy and buy again.

"BTL scum" - I realise that won't win approval here, cause its so aggressive and not universally true, but I like it.

Guess what, after all your basking on how incredibly smart you are, or telling us of your 50% gains, or your properties doubling, even tripling in price... we've entered the biggest house price crash of all time. You'll be lucky if it bottoms out at 1997 prices.

You weren't geniuses after all. Kiss your portfolio and the big old pension you were going to live on through capital increases, or the wealth you were going transfer to your infant or even unborn kids, goodbye.

dopester

From that same Reuters article:

All that HPI built upon lies and deceit and corruption and unethical practices.

In one notorious case, a small hedge fund agreed to insure UBS AG (UBSN.VX: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), the Swiss banking giant, from losses related to defaults on $1.3 billion of subprime mortgages for an annual premium of about $2 million.

The trouble was, the hedge fund set up a subsidiary to stand behind the guarantee -- and capitalized it with just $4.6 million. As long as the loans performed, the fund made a killing, raking in an annualized return of nearly 44 percent.

But in the summer of 2007, as home owners began to default, things got ugly. UBS demanded the hedge fund put up additional collateral. The fund balked. UBS sued.

"They booked all these derivatives assuming bad things would never happen. It was like writing fire insurance, assuming no one is ever going to have a fire, only now they're turning around and watching as the whole town burns down."

Rabiddog_2

But in a situation like that .. both UBS and the hedge fund are complicit.. UBS gets to spend a trivial amount of money to hedge against loss, thus saving money, possibly knowing the hedge fund cannot perform, but happy to save the (larger) amount of money it should have put aside to hedge against losses?

dopester

Rabiddog wrote: »

But in a situation like that .. both UBS and the hedge fund are complicit..

You'd have thought so in a sane world wouldn't you. One where there is some logical regulation or laws which make such recklessness punishable as a criminal offence.

However I don't see much, if any, legal actions going against them, or ones likely to succeed.

Providing the bank staff [STRIKE]where[/STRIKE] were getting their bonuses, the banks and shareholders believed the new-reality, and the HPI sluts were deliriously happy over at least 8 years - who cares till now?

ad44downey

matbe wrote: »

Sorry must go to bed now i have to get up for work in morning, while their is such a thing. Next week i may be part of the land army forced to plant wheat to grow national bread to support the masses
Or i may be off to work as normal to support my family

P.S. Get a life losers!!!!

He seems like a nice pleasant fellow. I hope he comes back soon.

ad9898_3

ad44downey wrote: »

He seems like a nice pleasant fellow. I hope he comes back soon.

I think the denial phase has ended for him, its full throttle into anger stage now.